Run defense suddenly springs two major leaks
Ravens, Colts exploit emerging weakness, leaving Patriots with grounds for success
If the Texans have a modicum of hope to upset New England on Sunday night, they better make substantial improvement in their run defense.
Coach Bill Belichick brings the Patriots to
NRG Stadium with an AFC-best 10-1 record. They want to guarantee the road to Super Bowl LIV in South Florida goes through Gillette Stadium.
To make sure that road isn’t rerouted through Baltimore, the Patriots have to defeat the Texans, which has become part of their heritage.
The first thing the Texans’ defense has to do is to contain running backs Sony Michel, James White and Rex Burkhead and see if they can get some pressure on quarterback Tom Brady. That’ll be difficult to do on both fronts if they don’t improve against the run.
Remember when stopping the run was a hallmark of Romeo
Crennel’s defense? In 2018, the Texans were among the best teams in the league against the run. They were this season, too, at least through nine games when they were third, allowing 84.1 yards a game.
Then the Texans met the Baltimore buzzsaw, and they were sliced and diced for 256 yards rushing in that 41-7 defeat. They recovered to beat Indianapolis 20-17, but the Colts gouged them for 175 yards rushing.
That’s 431 yards allowed in two games. They gave up 433 in the previous six, so what gives?
Before anybody panics, there are a couple of things to consider when analyzing why the Texans were poleaxed by the Ravens and Colts on the ground, causing them to plummet from third to 17th against the run (108-yard average).
There’s the Lamar Jackson factor. The Ravens’ quarterback ran nine times for 86 yards. Brady hasn’t rushed for that many yards over the last three seasons. He has minus-1 yards this season, but he’s scored three touchdowns. That means he’s taken a lot of knees.
Subtract Jackson’s yards, and the Texans still allowed 170, including a 63-yard touchdown by backup Gus Edwards.
Fast forward a week to the conquest of the Colts. They ran 39 times to get their 175 yards. That’s the most carries against the Texans this season and two more than Baltimore had. That’s 76 rushes in the last two games. It took opponents the previous four games to surpass that total.
Did the Ravens and Colts expose weaknesses in the Texans’ run defense because of some strategic flaw? Nope. Baltimore entered their game first in rushing, and the Colts were fourth. It’s what they do.
“At times, we play really good run defense,” coach Bill O’Brien said Monday. “The Colts ran it about 40 times for 175 yards, which is clearly too much, but there were times when we were very disciplined and played good technique. We were in the proper gap, and it's hard to run it on us.
“But when we get out of a gap, or when we intercommunicate the front or whatever, then we're a little inconsistent. We end up giving up a crease, and the good running teams find it. We've got to get back to playing more disciplined against the running game.”
Sunday would be an ideal time to play more soundly against the run, the way the Texans played before they faced Baltimore and
Indianapolis. So what are their chances?
Let’s look at the Patriots. They’ve been unable to develop a consistently productive running game, primarily because of injuries in their offensive line. They’re 24th in rushing with 91.9 yards a game. But now they’re getting healthy. Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels know it’s important to run the ball effectively in December and January.
“The Patriots have a really good running game,” O’Brien said. “It’s very unique. It takes advantage of the skillsets they have in the offensive line, at tight end, and then, obviously, with the backs. They involve everybody in the running game (including) the receivers.
“We've got to do a good job of just doing what we're coached to do and being in the right spots and not trying to do somebody else's job before we do our own job. I think that's a big part of the game.”
First and foremost, the Texans have to stop Michel, New England’s leading rusher with 600 yards and six touchdowns. He averages 3.4 a carry. As a team, the Patriots average 3.3.
The last time these two teams played in 2017 and 2018, the Patriots ran 51 times for 181 yards, a 3.5-yard average. The Texans lost 36-33 and 27-20 because Brady threw for 655 yards and eight touchdowns.
The Texans have allowed 22 touchdown passes. Only four teams have given up more.
Come to think of it, perhaps the Texans should allow the Patriots to run so Brady will throw fewer passes and reduce his opportunities to bombard them into oblivion as he’s done so many times.