Marathon mayoral campaign ends today
Runoff more low-key as Buzbee, Turner focus on platforms, not attacks
A nearly yearlong mayoral election that culminated in a subdued runoff between Tony Buzbee and incumbent Sylvester Turner comes to an end Saturday when voters decide who wins control over City Hall for the next four years.
Buzbee, a millionaire businessman and trial lawyer, has sought out voters of all political stripes by citing his ties to both parties. For months, he has painted Turner as a corrupt career politician who had run the city into the ground, regularly reminding voters he self-funded his own campaign to avoid the appearance that he is beholden to campaign donors.
Turner, a longtime Democratic state legislator who is finishing his first four-year term, has painted a rosy picture of conditions in Houston, arguing that he has overseen an uptick in the police force and laid the groundwork to diversify the city’s economy through tech and startup businesses. He also has pitched himself as an astute steward of the city’s finances, pointing to his signature feat: a major overhaul of the city’s costly pension systems.
During the runoff, the two candidates have focused on presenting their plans for the next four years, a marked difference from the general election, when they spent millions of dollars attacking each other. Since Nov. 5, when Turner finished about 19 percentage points ahead of Buzbee, the two have not faced off in a debate, with Turner almost ignoring his foe entirely.
“I think the realization was that Mayor Turner got 47 percent of the vote, and so, if he just didn’t make an embarrassing gaffe or make a wrong move, the election was his to win,” said Michael Adams, chairman of Texas Southern University’s political science department.
Without any new public polls, it remained unclear for most of the runoff whether Buzbee was making up ground on Turner. A follow-up KHOU/Houston Public Media poll of previously surveyed voters found the mayor held a big lead, though Buzbee denounced the poll’s methodology, calling it “poorly administered” due to its small sample size.
To win Saturday, experts said, Buzbee would have to convince voters he had shed his ties to President Donald Trump, who once visited Buzbee’s house for a fundraiser. During the first round, Turner hammered Buzbee over that connection, calling him a “Trump imitator.”
Though Buzbee repeatedly has pointed out that he also hosted a fundraiser for Turner and once ran for office as a Democrat, prior polling showed most of Buzbee’s support has come from Republicans. And an analysis of the November election showed him winning pluralities in conservative council districts while struggling in Democratic ones represented by African-American council members.
“Even though he tried to present himself as more centrist, as Turner advertised his affiliation with Trump, it just sunk him deeper and deeper,” said Nancy Sims, a local political analyst.
The day after the November election, Buzbee said he would not allow Turner to make the runoff “a referendum on Donald Trump,” pledging to focus instead on his plans for addressing the city’s most pressing problems.
Though he has held runoff events aimed at turning out his base, including a rally in Kingwood and an event with former Republican governor Rick Perry, Buzbee also has tried to broaden his support, releasing plans for flood control and public safety.
He also laid out a list of five “action items” for his first 100 days in office, including pay parity between firefighters and police officers, and ordering an “independent, outside audit” of all city services.
Turner’s campaign has criticized Buzbee’s proposals, calling them too costly or examples of policies the city already has enacted.
Meanwhile, early voting turnout rose in the runoff compared to the first round, though the makeup of the electorate did not change much. A similar share of Democrats and Republicans turned out for early voting in the runoff and November elections, and women made up 55 percent of the electorate in both rounds of early voting.
A breakdown of the electorate by age and race did not reveal major differences between the two rounds of voting.
The data, shared by local Democratic consultant Keir Murray, who is not affiliated with any mayoral campaign, suggests “there’s just no evidence of (Buzbee’s) ability to bring anybody new into the mix,” Murray said.
Though the drama of the mayoral race has fizzled, a slate of 11 City Council races has produced plenty of intrigue, with four incumbents fighting to keep their seats.
All five at-large, or citywide, council seats will be decided by runoffs, and the Harris County Democratic and Republican parties have endorsed candidates in each of the five races. The party involvement and evident political leanings of every at-large candidate has cast a partisan hue over the technically nonpartisan races.
The outcome of the mayoral election, which generally drives turnout in races down the ballot, could decide the fate of a few council contests that are expected to hinge on a couple percentage points, political observers said, including those involving the incumbents.
“All four of those could be impacted by what happens at the top of the ticket,” Sims said.
The incumbents forced into runoffs are Mike Knox (At-Large 1), David Robinson (At-Large 2), Michael Kubosh (At-Large 3) and Karla Cisneros (District H). Knox and Kubosh are backed by conservatives and face liberal-backed opponents Raj Salhotra and Janaeya Carmouche, respectively.
Robinson, a Democrat, faces Willie Davis, a Republican pastor who lost to Robinson in 2015. Cisneros is up against Isabel Longoria, a former member of the city planning commission. All four of the incumbents finished first in the Nov. 5 election but did not win a majority of the votes.