Despite the L-W-W pattern, pessimism understandable
The Texans didn’t win, but it didn’t matter. Or did it?
Bill O’Brien’s Texans played this one smartly. No risk, because there was no reward.
With preseason stakes for the Texans and playoff hopes for the Titans, it was a relatively drama-free afternoon at Reliant Stadium.
The Texans, having already clinched the AFC South, sat out a host of key starters, resting them for Saturday’s playoff game against Buffalo at NRG Stadi
um.
Tennessee claimed a 35-14 victory to grab the final AFC playoff spot as a prize. It will face the Patriots on wild card weekend.
Typically, not having to worry about playoff positioning in the season finale is a reward for good play throughout the season. This one came as a mixed bag for the Texans.
Yes, they played well enough to win the division. But had they played a little bit better, they could have earned a playoff bye and a more legitimate shot at advancing to their first conference championship game or Super Bowl.
If just one of their losses had gone in the “W” column — from the last-minute defensive collapse in the opener at New Orleans to the complete no-show earlier this month against the Broncos — the Texans would have had something to play for on Sunday. Instead, they blew the opportunity to have the No. 2 seed.
The first-round playoff byes went to Baltimore, the No. 1 seed, and Kansas City.
“When you look at the talent on this team, we definitely have enough,” veteran cornerback Johnathan Joseph said. “It’s just a matter of executing and showing up on game day.”
This was the year to make a move. The Patriots, who have advanced to the AFC Championship Game eight straight times, are no longer the bullies of the conference. The road to the Super Bowl will not go through Foxborough this season.
While history says one should not bet against New England, no one named History has ever played a down in the NFL.
Keep that in mind as you evaluate the Texans’ chances. Just as Sunday’s game will mean nothing on Saturday, not one thing the Texans have done in years past, or even this season, will matter either.
They have wins over Kansas City and New England yet finished behind them in the standings.
They lost to Baltimore, badly, but I believe they will have a good chance against the Ravens should they meet in the division round in two weeks.
Of course, Buffalo, which like Houston rested key players Sunday and lost to finish 10-6, will have something to say about that.
If all goes well in practice this week, the Texans will have the biggest pickup of the NFL season.
J.J. Watt could be back, and that will be a major addition to the defensive line, especially against the Bills’ highly rated rushing attack and, if the Texans win, Baltimore’s record-setting ground game.
Yet there remains a healthy pessimism concerning the Texans. And with good reason.
This could be a historic run or another grand disappointment.
But not only are the Texans in the dance, they proved during the season they can get down with the best of them.
They also showed they can be offbeat at times.
“This team can be really, really good,” linebacker Whitney Mercilus said. “When we put everything together, we can be unstoppable.
“That’s the thing. You’ve gotta be able to put it together.”
The Texans didn’t even try to put it together Sunday, resulting in a loss to Tennessee that is about as meaningless as a game could be. Deshaun Watson, his top receiving targets and their best offensive lineman did not play. Several defensive starters took the day off, and most others played sparingly. It wasn’t necessary.
Remember, from week to week, there is no such thing as momentum in football anyway.
The one time the Texans won a playoff game under O’Brien, they lost their season finale to the Titans in Nashville.
The two times O’Brien’s squads lost in the wild card round, they posted impressive wins the week before.
In 2015, Houston closed strong, winning its last three game by a combined 80-22, then didn’t even score a point in an embarrassing home loss to the Chiefs.
In 2018, the Texans stomped the Jaguars 20-3 to end the year, then turned around and became the stompee the next week against the visiting Colts.
So what will happened in the next couple weeks? Nobody knows.
After every loss this season, the Texans won their next two games. There is no such thing as momentum, but we’re talking about something that has happened five times this year. That’s a unique pattern.
If they do it again, the Texans will be playing in the AFC Championship Game for the first time.
Hey, perhaps not trying to win the Titans game is one of the smartest coaching moves O’Brien has ever made.