As voting begins, Dems turn to Texas
With 228 pledged delegates on the line, state will play major role in the presidential primary
Texas is finally in a position to be the decider in a presidential primary.
In most presidential primary elections for the past 30 years, Texas has been an afterthought, voting only when the races were all but over. But when early voting opens at 7 a.m. today, voters will get to weigh in on an unsettled Democratic presidential primary as the candidates make an aggressive final push to win over the undecideds.
“We have been moving our primary up by stages for two decades to find a relevant spot, and I think we have it this time around,” said Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University.
If Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont wins the majority of the 228 pledged delegates in Texas to go with his tallies from Iowa and New Hampshire, it could be game over for the rest of the field, Jillson said. But if former Vice President Joe Biden holds onto South Carolina and wins Texas and other Southern Super Tuesday states, he could suddenly be back in the driver’s seat.
Winning Texas is also key to billionaire Michael Bloomberg’s unique campaign strategy as he skips traditional early states. Instead he is spending big on Texas and California, which both vote on Super Tuesday on March 3.
Bloomberg has been surging in polls in both states, and winning both would vault him to the forefront of the race.
The candidates don’t have to be reminded about how big the stakes are in Texas. Each campaign has turned up the intensity in Texas with more ads, more staff on the ground and more visits from the candidates and their surrogates.
“Let me begin by making a dramatic announcement: We’re going to win the state of Texas,” Sanders said at a packed rodeo arena in Mesquite on Friday.
Sanders has opened five campaign offices around in the state over the last five days and boosted his television and digital ad buys.
“If you want honesty in the White House, we are going to make Donald Trump a one-term president,” Sanders said.
A day earlier it was Bloomberg, former mayor of New York City, in Houston quoting former House Speaker Sam Rayburn, a legendary Texas Democrat, in making the case that he can unify the nation after four years of Trump tearing down presidential norms.
“It reminds me of a Sam Rayburn saying that you might know: Any jackass can kick down a barn, but it takes a good carpenter to build one,” he said. “I’m not a carpenter, but I am an engineer, and I’m ready to get building.”
Bloomberg continues to saturate the airwaves in Texas, where he has already topped $25 million in TV advertising. He has spent $9 million in Houston, the most of any city in the state. This week he’s dispatched surrogates to campaign for him around Texas. On Monday, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa was in Houston standing in for Bloomberg in the Latino community.
While Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts has been campaigning hard in Nevada, she’s relied heavily on Julián Castro and other surrogates to make her pitch in Texas. Her campaign held a series of rallies with prominent Latinas in San Antonio, Laredo and McAllen last week. Also last week, Castro stumped for Warren at a Harris County Democrats event.
“I know the No. 1 thing we want to do is to beat Donald Trump, but a victory is only truly a victory if you also hold on to your soul when you do it,” Castro said moments after Bloomberg had addressed the same crowd.
Castro, the former San Antonio mayor, said Warren is determined to represent “people who don’t have a voice.”
Although Castro dropped out of the presidential race last month, his name remains on the ballot along with 16 other Democrats. Others who dropped out including Cory Booker, Andrew Yang and Michael Bennet are also on the ballot.
While Biden has slipped in national polling, his campaign continues to send surrogates to Texas to shore up his support. Over the weekend, he had U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, D-Dallas, campaign for him in Dallas and former state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte was campaigning in San Antonio.
Former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, the surprise winner of the Iowa caucuses, was just in The Heights a month ago warning Texans that they are about to play a key role in the primary.
“It’s never been more important for us to be organizing our friends and allies here, knowing that the race is unpredictable,” he said during a January stop.
As of Monday, Buttigieg had added 24 paid staffers to help train volunteers to get out the vote in Texas.
U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota has had the smallest Texas footprint of the remaining contenders. But with a strong showing in New Hampshire and a debate there last week, her campaign has said that a boost in fundraising has allowed her to staff up in Nevada and South Carolina and that she will start having a bigger presence in Super Tuesday states including Texas.
“We raised $12 million and now will have staff on the ground in every Super Tuesday state, which will allow us to compete everywhere,” Klobuchar campaign manager Justin Buoen said.
Republicans also have a presidential primary. Trump is on the ballot and has six primary opponents, including former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld.
The attention on Texas is a rarity in the modern political primary system.
In 2008, Texas was relevant even though its primary was after more than 30 other states had already voted. Then-Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were still battling for the nomination when Clinton narrowly won the Texas primary, but Obama gained enough delegates in Texas and states that voted in March to pad his overall delegate lead.
In 1988, the Democratic nomination was a wideopen field when it hit Texas and 18 other states on Super Tuesday. Just days before Texas Democrats voted, Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis, Rep. Dick Gephardt, Sen. Al Gore and the Rev. Jesse Jackson were all campaigning in the state, and more than $1 million of ads were on Texas TV. Wins in Texas and Florida on Super Tuesday helped Dukakis take a delegate lead that he never relinquished.
Jillson said there are not many other primaries in which Texas Democrats have played as big a role as this year.
“I think that Texas is well positioned to be influential,” he said.