Virus may change candidates’ tactics
AUSTIN — Despite nearly winning a three-way Republican primary election, Matt Morgan was back knocking on voters’ doors a week later.
The professional risk manager credits his firstplace showing in the March 3 primary for House District 26 to talking to people at their doorsteps about taxes and education, but campaign techniques for the Richmond candidate and others running for office are being upended as people attempt to limit the spread of the novel coronavirus.
“It won’t affect my effort. My goal is to continue to be in front of voters, however that may need to be,” said Morgan, who is running to represent parts of Fort Bend County in the Legislature.
COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, has led Texas and dozens of other states to issue disaster declarations, encouraging people to socially distance themselves and avoid large gatherings to slow the spread of the disease. With people over 60 and those who have underlying illnesses at greatest risk of the disease, public health officials hope to limit the peak of cases that could overwhelm hospitals caring for people with severe symptoms.
On Friday, Gov. Greg Abbott declared a state of disaster in all 254 Texas counties. Louisiana delayed its primary election and presidential campaigns, canceling major political events. Some states are debating what changes they can make to avoid unnecessary public health risks on their election days.
For candidates in Texas facing a May 26 runoff, it’s unclear what COVID-19 will mean. If the virus’ impact on communities is short, candidates will have time to resume their campaigns as normal, political science professors say. If the impact stretches into the spring, candidates will likely have to embrace more virtual town halls, pump more money into digital ads, spend more funds on mailers, arrange more one-onone meetings and try to boost their influence among key organizers.
“Voters are understandably distracted, so challengers are going to have to work more diligently to get in front of voters,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston. “Crisis breeds innovation, so we should expect to see creative use of digital campaigning in the next month.”
Morgan is one of six candidates in Fort Bend County facing runoff elections. Former Sheriff Troy Nehls and Republican donor Kathaleen Wall face a Republican runoff in Congressional District 22. The county tax assessor-collector’s race features a runoff between Republicans James Pressler and J.J. Clemence.
Jacey Jetton, the former Fort Bend County Republican Party chairman, outspent Morgan 5 to 1 during the primary. He secured Abbott’s endorsement and spent $170,000 on his campaign, much of it from the governor or political groups helping to secure his nomination.
Morgan, who spent $34,000, relied on convincing people to vote for him by visiting them at their front doors. “That’s what got us where we’re at,” he said, adding that his team of volunteers collectively knocked on 10,000 doors. He hopes to get in front of voters, “each one individually, if I can.” He said Facebook forums and making more calls to voters might have to supplant at-home visits.
“We don’t want to be the cause of the spread of this,” he said.
Morgan fell 49 votes short of winning the election outright. Jetton came in second with 41 percent of the vote, to Morgan’s 49.7 percent. Leonard Chan, a management analyst, came in third with 9 percent. He said he is considering whether to endorse anyone in the race.
Jetton hopes to make up ground in the runoff by getting more one-on-one time with voters in hopes that they will come out stronger for him, but he worries that COVID-19 could scare people out of voting if its effect lingers until the May election.
“If this is still going in the direction it’s going and in full effect in May, turnout is very difficult. Getting people to stand in line and vote, that’s going to be very difficult,” he said.
Current partisan and ideological divides over the seriousness of COVID-19 could affect voters’ behaviors if the disease’s effect lingers in Texas, said Rebecca Deen, associate professor of political science at the University of Texas at Arlington.
“For example, I see a lot of conservatives on social media who are deeply skeptical of the idea of flattening the curve as the reason for the school closures. If that holds, it could translate into an ideological difference in turnout.”
The district is an important one. Republicans last won the seat in 2018 by 5 percentage points. That’s a major shift from six years ago, when sitting Republican Rep. Rick Miller won the seat with a 40-point margin.
Miller originally ran for the seat but dropped out in December after making a comment about opponents running against him because they are “Asian.”
Fort Bend County has become one of the most diverse in the nation, and its politics are evolving. The population is split almost evenly, with 35 percent Anglo residents, 24 percent Hispanic, 21 percent Asian or other and 20 percent black, according to a 2018 survey by the Kinder Institute for Urban Research.
Democrats hope the changing demographics in the county will help turn the district blue. If Democrats can flip nine seats in November, they will win control of the Texas House, shifting power dynamics as the state redraws political boundaries after this year’s census.
Two Democrats also face a runoff in the race for House District 26. Suleman Lalani, a doctor in geriatrics, earned 32 percent of the votes in the Democratic primary. He will face L. “Sarah” DeMerchant, an IT executive known for fighting wage disparity.
DeMerchant said she plans to focus on making sure her message of better education funding and fixing property taxes resonates with people, but she expects that the fundamentals of her approach before the election won’t change much. “I don’t see it affecting my campaign,” she said.