Delay of fame
Truncated or lost 2020 season damages career milestone chase
A shutdown means no superstars, no opportunity to see baseball’s best players operate on a daily basis.
The Astros employ a few, all of whom claim they’re focused on the team’s well-being. Deep down, though, a drive exists to attain specific personal achievements — large, round numbers that could top a Hall of Fame résumé and cement one’s standing among the sport’s elite.
Pausing games during the coronavirus pandemic puts many of the pursuits in peril. Four veteran Astros players were on a trajectory for cherished milestones. Now their tasks are complicated by what will be, at best, a shortened season and, at worst, no season at all.
Jose Altuve: 3,000 hits
Just 32 men in major league history have accumulated 3,000 hits. Every eligible player but two — Pete Rose and Rafael Palmeiro — is enshrined in the Hall of Fame. Craig Biggio remains the only hitter to notch his 3,000th hit as an Astro.
Not too long ago, Jose Altuve’s attainment of the milestone seemed a question not of if but when. Altuve amassed 200 or more hits for four straight seasons from 2014-17, culminating in his American League MVP award in 2017.
Two injury-plagued seasons have followed. Altuve did not strike more than 170 hits in either 2018 or 2019, halting his torrid pace. He now sits at 1,568 hits while awaiting the start of his 10th major league season.
Longevity and sometimes luck can be as important as talent in reaching 3,000. All 32 major leaguers with that many hits played for at least 18 years. It took Roberto Clemente 18 seasons to swat 3,000 hits exactly before he perished in an offseason plane crash. Biggio belted his 3,000th during the 20th — and final — season of his Hall of Fame career.
Last July, during the 1,190th game of Altuve’s career, the face of Houston’s franchise recorded his 1,500th hit — a three-run homer against the Cardinals at Busch Stadium. No Astro
had accrued 1,500 hits faster. Altuve beat Jeff Bagwell to the threshold by 174 games.
Subtracting his 57-game rookie campaign in 2011, Altuve has averaged 188 hits in his eight full major league seasons. If he adheres to that pace, Altuve would require approximately eight more full seasons to reach 3,000 hits.
According to FanGraphs analyst Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS longterm projections, Altuve had a 40 percent chance to reach 3,000 hits with a full 2020 season. If there is no season, his odds plummet to 28 percent.
Altuve turns 30 next month. His knee injury from late 2018 lingered into 2019, denting his production and damaging his overall numbers. After he was activated from the injured list last June 19, Altuve slashed .320/.363/ .581 to end the season. He struck 114 hits in the Astros’ final 85 games, the sort of production he’ll need to replicate to reach 3,000.
Justin Verlander: 4,000 strikeouts
For his entire Astros tenure, Verlander has maintained a desire to pitch until he’s 45. In two full seasons with Houson, at an age when most pitchers start a slowdown, the 37-year-old ace has accrued a Cy Young Award and runner-up finish. Verlander struck out a career-high 290 batters in 2018. One season later, he punched out 300, establishing a new benchmark and inviting wonder whether he can join yet another exclusive group.
Only four major league pitchers finished their career with at least 4,000 strikeouts. Three — Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson — spent part of their playing days with the Astros. Prior to the pandemic, Verlander appeared on track to join the trio, along with Steve Carlton. Szymborski gave Verlander a 38 percent chance to reach 4,000 with a full 2020 season. Without one, the percentage drops to 30.
Verlander is the only active pitcher with 3,000 strikeouts. His 3,006 career punchouts leave him 994 away from joining Ryan — his childhood idol — in another impressive group. The pair is also among a group of only six major leaguers who’ve thrown at least three no-hitters.
In his 14 full major league seasons, Verlander has averaged 214 strikeouts per year. Assuming he can keep that pace, he’d need approximately five full seasons to reach 4,000. That Verlander has thrown 200 or more innings in 13 of his last 14 seasons is obviously favorable.
“I’ve always been somebody who takes a lot of pride in taking the ball and pitching 200 innings a year,” Verlander said last season after recording his 3,000th strikeout. “With that, if you’re able to do that year after year, some numbers start to pile up.”
Whether Verlander can continue to “do that year after year” is the question. He suffered a strained lat in spring training and had a lingering groin issue that required surgery at the beginning of the coronavirus shutdown. The thought of Verlander’s pitching 200 innings in a normal 2020 season seemed almost implausible. Now, it’s all but impossible.
Verlander has shown to be the exception — not the norm — for aging pitchers. As an Astro, he has looked as dominant in his mid-30s as many in their mid-20s. Before his two spring setbacks, Verlander had avoided almost any injury since 2015, remarkable for a pitcher his age.
Continued passage of time makes the task harder. Any pause in play during Verlander’s Astrosassisted renaissance seems magnified. Precious time is slipping away from one of the generation’s greatest pitchers.
Zack Greinke: 250 wins
Debate can, and will, rage over the merit of pitcher wins. As baseball continues to advance analytically and pitcher usage changes, the statistic seems increasingly archaic. More attention is devoted to numbers only a pitcher himself can control — be it WHIP, strikeouts per nine or strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Still, those bred in a past era can cherish a win in ways their younger teammates may not.
“I wouldn’t say there’s many pitchers that would say that’s the No. 1 most important stat for them,” Astros starter Zack Greinke said last August after notching his 200th win. “But if you and the team are winning, it’s the most important. It doesn’t necessarily say you’re pitching the best, but it’s the most important.”
Three career milestones are within Greinke’s grasp. Two seem assured. The other — 250 wins — is now in serious peril. Greinke has 205 career victories. According to FanGraphs, he had a 72 percent chance to get 250 if a full 2020 season were played. Without a 2020 season, it drops to 54 percent.
Greinke is 378 strikeouts away from 3,000 and 128 innings away from 3,000. Assuming he avoids a catastrophic injury and a precipitous decline in effectiveness, the 36-year-old righty should secure both accomplishments within the next two years. Greinke has thrown 200 innings in five of his last six seasons. He’s thrown six seasons with at least 200 strikeouts — and another with 199.
Wins, meanwhile, are almost impossible to forecast with such certainty. Greinke has won 10 or more games in each of the last 12 seasons — obvious success, given how good he is.
Still, so much is out of Greinke’s power in a decision. Does he pitch well and receive no run support? Does a manager pull him after 42⁄3 innings of a meaningful game to go to a better matchup? In the eighth or ninth inning, does a reliever blow a lead that Greinke preserved?
Given the fickleness, it behooves any pitcher in pursuit of a win milestone to get as many starts as possible. The pandemic is preventing it for Greinke.
Joe Smith: 1,000 appearances
Joe Smith’s longevity and fascinating career arc are overshadowed by the superstar status of some teammates.
In a clubhouse with Verlander, Greinke and Altuve, Smith sits quietly as the sport’s active leader in pitching appearances with 782. Only 26 men have ever appeared in 900 games. Just 16 crossed the 1,000-game threshold — a group that includes Hall of Famers Mariano Rivera, Dennis Eckersley and Trevor Hoffman.
Early in his career, Smith’s sidearm delivery pigeonholed him as a right-on-right specialist. His effectiveness cannot be overstated — he carries a 2.98 career ERA, and righthanded hitters have a .586 career OPS against him.
In Cleveland and Anaheim, Smith was a valued back-end reliever regardless of the opposing hitter. From 2011-15, he made at least 70 appearances in five straight seasons.
The workload has diminished slightly since. Smith failed to eclipse 60 appearances in 2016, 2017 or 2018. A ruptured Achilles tendon last winter limited him to 28 appearances in 2019.
At 36, Smith has remained relatively injury-free — last year notwithstanding — and displayed no outward signs of slowing down. He was terrific late in the 2019 season and became one of manager A.J. Hinch’s most trusted relievers during the playoffs.
Smith signed a two-year deal with the Astros during the offseason. He was primed to take over Will Harris’ role, inheriting a game’s stickiest situation as the bridge to setup man Ryan Pressly and closer Roberto Osuna. Ostensibly, he’d be used frequently by manager Dusty Baker, moving him closer to a milestone.
As it stands now, Smith requires 118 appearances for 900 and 218 for 1,000. Regaining a 70 appearance per season pace may aid the endeavor. The new three batter minimum may make it harder for Smith to bounce back, though, and could endanger the pursuit.