Expect Texans to try to move from No. 40
If trade materializes, likely direction is down for more picks rather than up
For only the second time in franchise history, the Texans enter a NFL draft without a first-round pick.
Working from his home because of unprecedented restrictions created by the coronavirus pandemic, coach/general manager Bill O’Brien will be on the clock with the 40th overall pick Friday, the second day of the draft.
The Texans have seven draft choices, including three in the seventh round. O’Brien is expected to be active in the trade market but more likely will move down rather than up in the second round. The other year the Texans lacked a first-round draft choice was 2018. They didn’t have picks in the first and second rounds because of trades former
general manager Rick Smith made with Cleveland involving quarterbacks Deshaun Watson and Brock Osweiler.
In that 2018 draft, firstyear general manager Brian Gaine had three picks in the third round and used them on safety Justin Reid, guard Martinas Rankin and tight end Jordan Akins.
Reid has become one of the Texans’ best players. In his second season, Akins came off the bench to catch 36 passes for 418 yards and two touchdowns. In August, O’Brien traded Rankin to Kansas City for running back Carlos Hyde, who rushed for a career-high 1,070 yards.
Reid, Akins and Hyde helped the Texans win the AFC South and reach the divisional round of the playoffs. The Texans need to find that kind of production in this draft.
Not having a first-round pick is something the Texans will have to adjust to in the next two drafts.
To get left tackle Laremy Tunsil and receiver Kenny Stills before the 2019 season, O’Brien traded this year’s first-round pick and next year’s first- and second-round picks to Miami.
O’Brien, who also threw in offensive tackle Julién Davenport and cornerback Johnson Bademosi, received a fourth-round draft choice this year and a sixth-round selection in 2021.
Based on Trader Bill’s deals, there’s a good chance he could move down in the second round for an additional pick or two. With so many needs on defense, specifically an interior lineman who can rush the passer, a safety and a cornerback, it might make sense to trade down and still get a prospect the Texans want.
Looking back at the last 10 drafts and players selected with the 40th overall pick, there have been some duds and some studs.
Does anyone remember Tennessee receiver Dorial Green-Beckham, Carolina guard Amini Silatolu or San Francisco defensive end Tank Carridine. How about Dallas linebacker Bruce Carter or Miami’s Koa Misi?
The best players taken with the 40th overall pick have been receivers Courtland Sutton (Denver), Curtis Samuel (Carolina) and Sterling Shepard (New York Giants), linebacker Kyle Van Noy (Detroit) and cornerback Trayvon Mullen (Oakland). They were selected in five of the last six drafts.
Van Noy’s success has been with New England after three seasons in Detroit. Mullen started 10 games as a rookie.
Because the draft takes place over the next three days, this seems like a good time to look at the Texans’ draft history and determine who was the best player taken in each round.
Let’s start with the seventh round. Right tackle Derek Newton, who came off the bench as a rookie in 2011, was a five-year starter whose career basically ended in 2016 at Denver, where he suffered torn patellar tendons in both legs.
The best sixth-round pick was tight end Ryan Griffin in 2013. He spent six years with the Texans and is playing in his second season with the New York Jets.
The best fifth-rounder is a no-brainer, popular nose tackle D.J. Reader. He anchored the middle of the defensive line for four seasons and left as a free agent in March to sign with Cincinnati for $13.25 million a year.
There was competition for the top fourth-round pick between tight end Owen Daniels (2006) and safety Glover Quin (2009). As good as Quin was before he was allowed to leave as a free agent and sign with Detroit, Daniels is still the best tight end in team history, so he wins. He played eight seasons with the Texans and 10 overall, winning a Super Bowl with Denver in 2015 before retiring.
The best third-round pick came down to two offensive linemen, tackle Eric Winston (2006) and guard Brandon Brooks (2012). Winston played his first six seasons with the Texans and 12 in all.
Brooks started for four seasons with the Texans and has become a perennial Pro Bowl selection with Philadelphia, where he also won a Super Bowl ring. Brooks is the best third-round pick in team history.
In the second round, inside linebacker DeMeco Ryans (2006) beats out offensive tackle Chester Pitts (2002). Pitts never missed a start in his first seven seasons.
Ryans played six years with the Texans and four with the Eagles. He’s still the best inside linebacker in team history and earns the distinction as the best second-round pick.
And finally, there’s no way to pick the best firstround pick in team history. There are some terrific candidates, but two stand at the head of the class: receiver Andre Johnson (2003) and defensive end J.J. Watt (2011).
Receiver DeAndre Hopkins (2013) and offensive tackle Duane Brown (2008) are in the conversation. Ten years from now, perhaps quarterback Deshaun Watson will be the easy choice.
But for now, it’s too close to call. Johnson or Watt? Watt or Johnson?
You make the call.