Tough start likely, but it shouldn’t ruin season
Expect 10-6 after rugged first 4 games lead into easier portion of schedule
Now that we’ve had a weekend to chew on the Texans’ schedule, it’s apparent no team faces a more difficult challenge in the first month than they do in Bill O’Brien’s seventh season as coach.
If the NFL starts the season on time, the Texans begin at Kansas City, return home against Baltimore, visit Pittsburgh and host Minnesota. The Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers and Vikings combined for a 44-20 record last season.
Three of the quarterbacks the Texans have to defend — Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs), Lamar Jackson (Ravens) and Kirk Cousins Vikings) — combined for 88 touchdowns and 17 interceptions in 2019. And Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers) should be healthy after missing almost all of the season because of an elbow injury.
Obviously, the Texans want to avoid an 0-4 start for the first time under O’Brien. If they’re 2-2 against that schedule, fans should be doing cartwheels outside NRG Stadium. If the Texans start 1-3, they still could be in good shape considering the remainder of the schedule.
The Texans have started 1-3 twice since O’Brien became their coach, and they recovered to win the AFC South both times. The last time was 2018 when they had a ninegame winning streak and finished 11-5 — O’Brien’s best record.
Here are some of the things the Texans have to look forward to over the first four weeks. They play a Thursday night game at Arrowhead Stadium, where they blew a 24-0 lead and lost in the divisional round of the playoffs to the Chiefs, who went on to defeat San Francisco in the Super Bowl.
The home opener features the Texans against the Ravens, who had an NFL-best 14-2 record, including a 41-7 victory over the Texans. Not only does Baltimore have the fewest miles to travel this season, the Ravens also play the easiest schedule based on last year’s records. Baltimore is set up to have the AFC’s best record for a second consecutive season.
The second road game against Pittsburgh features Roethlisberger in his third start of the season. He’s 4-1 against the Texans with eight touchdown passes and one interception.
Cousins, who’ll be playing against the Texans for the first time in his nineyear career, has 56 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in his two seasons with the Vikings.
So, predicting the first four games, the Texans will be underdogs against the Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers. If they lose to each of them to start 0-3, they have to beat Minnesota, which they should be able to do.
That would make the Texans 1-3 after one quarter of the season.
At that point, the Texans should make their move. They play back-toback AFC South games against Jacksonville and Tennessee.
The Texans won the division in 2019 for the fourth time in five years. They were 4-2 against AFC South opponents, including a sweep of the Jaguars and a road victory against the Titans.
Let’s say they defeat the Jaguars and lose at Tennessee to start 2-4. The Texans return home against Green Bay in a game that could be vital to the season. The Packers were 13-3 last season and reached the NFC Championship game. It says here the Texans will win to have a 3-4 record going into their open date. That’s when the season should heat up.
The Texans come out of their open date with consecutive road games against Jacksonville and Cleveland. They were 5-3 on the road last season. They’ll win both games for a three-game winning streak that makes them 5-4.
The Texans return to NRG Stadium to play New England, a team they defeated last season with Tom Brady at quarterback. They should win against whomever is quarterback for the Patriots to elevate their record to 6-4.
That winning streak should reach five games with a victory at Detroit on Thanksgiving. Then they entertain Indianapolis. Last season, the Texans won at home against the Colts and beat new Indianapolis quarterback Philip Rivers on the road in his last season with the Chargers. That’s six consecutive victories and an 8-4 record.
The Texans return to the road against Chicago and Indianapolis. They’re 4-0 against the Bears, including 1-0 under O’Brien. With Mitchell Trubisky trying to earn a new contract, the Bears will end the Texans’ winning streak and drop their record to 8-5.
Indianapolis will get revenge in the last road game with a victory at Lucas Oil Stadium. With consecutive defeats, fans and media will howl for O’Brien to be fired, but the Texans rebound to beat Cincinnati and Tennessee at NRG Stadium to finish 10-6.
Coincidentally, the Texans win the AFC South for the fifth time in six years. They host a wild card game in the early Saturday night time slot, escape with a victory and go on the road against the … . But that’s a story for another day.