COVID-19 fatalities are mostly 65 and up
The claim: “We strongly encourage at-risk populations to try to watch or participate remotely, remembering this very important point, and that is almost 75 percent of the deaths from COVID-19 in the state of Texas are a result of people contracting COVID-19 who are age 65 and older.” — Republican Gov. Greg Abbott.
Abbott made the statement May 5 as he updated his plan to reopen the Texas economy, while recommending that at-risk populations “remain at home if at all possible” and avoid in-person gatherings, such as a church service, funeral or wedding.
PolitiFact rating: Mostly True. Of confirmed coronavirus deaths, close to 75 percent were people within the age group Abbott provided, but he failed to include the caveat that this statistic leaves out more than half the total deaths that have not yet been investigated.
Discussion: Abbott’s spokesman John Wittman said the governor’s claim is based on figures from the Texas Department of State Health Services, which publishes daily numbers on the state’s COVID-19 testing and cases.
The data includes a breakdown of coronavirus deaths by age, race and gender but only for those cases where the deaths have been investigated by local and regional health departments. As of May 19, the majority, or 489, were still under investigation.
“The demographic data on cases and fatalities come from the case investigation forms submitted by local health departments and our regional offices,” DSHS spokesman Chris Van Deusen said.
The purpose of the investigation is to confirm that the person had COVID-19 but also to collect other details about them and the circumstances around their death, Van Deusen said.
Wittman said the data showed that about 75 percent of investigated deaths were people 65 and older when Abbott made this
statement.
“It alternates almost daily, but it’s generally around that range,” Wittman said.
As of May 6, the day after the news conference, the death toll in Texas was 948. Fewer than half, or 433, had been investigated.
Of those, 71 percent were Texans 65 and older. It was still 71 percent, or 345 out of 489 investigated cases, as of May 19. The age groups broke down like so:
• Ages 10 to 19 years old: 2 deaths, or 0.4 percent
• Ages 20-29: 10 deaths, or 2.04 percent
• Ages 30-39: 9 deaths, or 1.8 percent
• Ages 40-49: 21 deaths, or 4.29 percent
• Ages 50-59: 54 deaths, or 11.04 percent
• Ages 60-64: 45 deaths, or 9.2 percent
• Ages 65-69: 59 deaths, or 12.06 percent
• Ages 70-74: 45 deaths, or 9.2 percent
• Ages 75-79: 45 deaths, or 9.2 percent
• Ages 80+: 196 deaths, or 40.08 percent
Across the U.S., about 79 percent of coronavirus deaths have been people 65 years and older, according to National Center for Health Statistics data submitted between the beginning of February and the beginning of May.
Like Texas’ statistics, the national numbers are also incomplete. The number of deaths represent only those entered between those dates and include only people with confirmed or presumed COVID-19.
“While 80 percent of deaths are electronically processed and coded by NCHS within minutes, most deaths from COVID-19 must be coded by a person, which takes an average of seven days,” the NCHS states on its website.
The data is also always somewhat behind because of the lag time between when a death occurred and when a death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. The delay can last anywhere from one week to eight or more.