Power demand forecast to set a record

Triple-digit temperatures forecast for the next few days are expected to drive electricity demand to record levels.

The state grid manager Electric Reliability Council of Texas predicts that peak demand on Saturday and Sunday could run 72,000 and 73,000 megawatts, breaking the weekend record of 71,930 megawatts set during last summer’s heat wave on Sunday, Aug. 11.

Texas may also set a peak demand record on Monday if the forecast for triple-digit weather holds. ERCOT projects that electricity demand on Monday could reach as high as 76,000 megawatts, beating the record of 74,820 megawatts set last summer on Monday, Aug. 12 between 4 and 5 p.m.

Temperatures in the major metropolitan areas of Texas including Houston, Dallas, Austin and San Antonio are expected to range between 101 to 108 degrees over the next few days, according to ERCOT. ERCOT said in an email Friday to market participants in the power industry that it did not expect to have any problems meeting electricity demand.

ERCOT did not respond to re

quests for comment.

ERCOT has a bigger cushion of electricity heading into this summer than it did last summer when the grid manager issued voluntary conservation notices to consumers and businesses on two separate days asking Texans to conserve power during the peak afternoon hours. The notices asked Texans to turn up air conditioners and delay operating dishwashers and washing machines until the evening hours when demand typically falls.

Tight supplies during the hottest days last summer sent the price of wholesale power soaring repeatedly to $9,000 per megawatt hour, the state’s maximum. The effect? In August last year, average wholesale electricity prices were $162 per megawatt hour compared to $38 per megawatt hour in August 2018.

This summer, ERCOT boosted the reserve margin to 10.6 percent, 2 percentage points higher than it was last summer, reflecting reduced economic activity because of the spread of coronavirus and more generation capacity. But the reserve margin — the cushion in generation capacity to meet unexpected demand

spikes or supply disruptions — is still less than ERCOT’s goal of 13.75 percent.

A variety of factors including extreme weather, low wind output and higher-than-normal generation outages may force ERCOT to declare another round of emergency alerts to prevent power outages.

ERCOT reported on Friday that a sudden loss of generation occurred Thursday night totaling 843.5 megawatts. One megawatt is enough to power about 200 homes on a hot day in Texas.

Information about the generator is confidential, said ERCOT spokeswoman Leslie Sopko.

Utilities have notified retail electricity providers that they must temporarily halt disconnections for non-payment during the hot weather streak.