For Texas win, Biden needs vote of Latinos
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump has enough support from Latino voters to win Texas, but Joe Biden could pull off an upset if he wins two-thirds of the Latino vote in the state — something Hillary Clinton cameclose to doing in 2016 — a new analysis finds.
The analysis, by the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation, says Trump currently holds enough support fromLatino voters, 41 percent, to stave off a loss in the state. On the other hand, a poll released this week found otherwise, showing Biden with 66 percent of the Latino vote.
“A surge in Hispanic support for Biden could turn the state blue,” policy foundation President Jason Villalba, a former Republican state representative from Dallas, said in a statement. “Both campaigns should be taking Hispanic Texans
very seriously right now.”
The group, using exit polls and voter file reports, projected that Hispanicswillmake up 27 percent of the electorate in Texas this year — up from 24 percent in 2016 and 22 percent in 2012. The group says it’s enough to decide the election.
The group pointed to polling it conducted in August that found Biden had the support of just 58 percent of those voters. If Trump is able to hold on to the 41 percent support among Texas Latinos he had in that polling, he will win the state with 52 percent of the vote as he did in 2016, policy foundation estimates.
The policy foundation’s poll was conducted between Aug. 4 and Aug. 13 among a representative sample of 846 Texas registered voters with a Hispanic oversample. It carried a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
Clinton won the support of 61 percent of Latino voters in 2016, according to THPF’s analysis. She lost the state overall by 9 points, 43 to 52.
The THPF findings are in line with a Quinnipiac University poll released lastweek that showed Biden leading Trump by 8 points among Texas Hispanics.
But it also follows a University of Houston-Univision News survey released Tuesday that found Biden holding a much more commanding lead among Latino voters — 66 percent, compared to 25 percent for Trump.
The state Democratic Party criticized the policy foundation’s analysis, calling Villalba a “rightwing operative.”
“Credible polls show that Joe Biden is winning the Latino community in Texas handily,” said Abhi Rahman, a spokesman for the party. “Biden will win the state of Texas and the Latino community will be a major factor that puts him over the top.”