U.S. cases near 9 million, while survival ticks up

CHICAGO — The United States, which reported one of its earliest coronavirus cases in Washington state in the beginning of the year, approached 9 million total infections Thursday, including more than half a million in the past week, as the virus spiraled out of control in the lead-up to Election Day.

Across the country, alarming signs suggested the worst was yet to come: More than 20 states reported more cases over the past week than at any time during the pandemic.

Patients were sent to field hospitals in El Paso and the Milwaukee suburbs. Growing outbreaks led to new restrictions on businesses in Chicago. Zero states reported sustained declines in cases.

“There is no way to sugarcoat it — we are facing an urgent crisis, and there is an imminent risk to you, your family members, your friends, your neighbors,” said Gov. Tony Evers of Wisconsin, where hospitals have been strained, case numbers have exploded and more than 200 coronavirus deaths have been announced in the past week.

With the presidential election days away, the country is now averaging more than 75,000 new cases daily, theworst stretch of the pandemic by that measure. Deaths, which lag behind cases, remain far below their spring levels but have ticked upward to about 780 each day.

But as the virus continues its rampage, survival rates, even of seriously ill patients, appeared to be improving. At one New York hospital system where 30 percent of coronavirus patients died in March, the death rate had dropped to 3 percent by the end of June.

Doctors in England observed a similar trend.

“In late March, 4 in 10 people in intensive care were dying. By the end of June, survival was over 80 percent,” said John M. Dennis, a University of Exeter Medical School researcher who is first author of a paper about improved survival rates in Britain.

As elderly people sheltered inside and took precautions to avoid infection, however, more of the hospitalized patients were younger adults, whowere generally healthier and more resilient. By the end of August, the average patient was younger than 40.

“This is still a high death rate, much higher than we see for flu or other respiratory diseases,” said Dr. Leora Horwitz, director of NYU Langone’s Center for Healthcare Innovation & Delivery Science and senior author of the paper in Journal of Hospital Medicine. “I don’t want to pretend this is benign. But it definitely is something that has given me hope.”

A combination of factors contributed to the improved outcomes of hospital patients, the authors of the two studies and other experts said. As clinicians learned how to better manage it.