LET’S SUPPOSE …
If Watson were available, which teams could offer a suitable haul?
Just over 30 years ago, Jimmy Johnson and Jerry Jones delivered NFL shockwaves through their blockbuster trade of running back Herschel Walker.
The Dallas Cowboys acquired a king’s ransom of draft capital from the Minnesota Vikings to propel them to three Super Bowl victories.
By shrewdly maneuvering on Oct. 13, 1989, to deal away one of their best players besides Troy Aikman and Michael Irvin, the Cowboys executed the largest, most lopsided trade in league history with the transaction involving a total of 18 players and draft picks.
Johnson characterized the deal as “The Great Train Robbery,” because it transformed a 1-15 team into an annual Super Bowl contender via precious draft picks. The trade included firstround and second-round picks in 1990, 1991 and 1992 plus a third-round pick along with some unwanted players, eventually enabling Dallas to draft draft Emmitt Smith, Russell Maryland, Kevin Smith and Darren Woodson.
The historic trade is instructive when it comes to the Texans’ ongoing dispute with quarterback Deshaun Watson, one
of the most dynamic and valuable players in the game.
If this impasse isn’t resolved between Watson and Texans chairman and CEO Cal McNair, it could lead to similarly unprecedented trade scenarios mirroring how major business is conducted in the NBA with deals like the Rockets’ recent moving of James Harden to the Brooklyn Nets.
At the moment, Watson hasn’t demanded a trade, and the Texans have no intentions of trading him, according to league sources not authorized to speak publicly.
Signed to a four-year, $156 million contract that includes $110.7 million guaranteed, Watson has a notrade clause that can be waived only by him. That gives Watson, under contract through 2025, the leverage to veto any potential trades to teams he’s not interested in playing for and choose his own destination.
It’s a fluid situation, sources emphasized, that could lead to several potential outcomes, including a reconciliation, trading Watson or his withholding services.
McNair has apologized privately to Watson while publicly acknowledging the need for better communication. Watson became upset at not being involved in the hiring process for a general manager and coach after McNair assured him he would. The Texans hired Nick Caserio as GM and are still searching for a coach.
Watson’s contract is definitely tradable with manageable remaining salaries of $10.5 million, $35 million, $37 million, $32 million and $32 million. He has corresponding salary-cap figures of $15.94 million, $40.4 million, $42.4 million $37.4 million and $32 million.
“I really doubt that Deshaun will be traded,” an NFL general manager said. “The owner has to figure out a way to work things out and get on the same page with the quarterback. It’s a really good reminder that you need to have excellent communication with your best players, because this situation is extremely negative and has deteriorated really fast.
“I know a lot of teams would be interested in Deshaun if the Texans made him available, and it would cost a lot as far as draft picks and players. He’s such an elite player that it’s definitely something a lot of teams are talking about and thinking about. I believe it would take at least three first-round draft picks to make it happen.”
What would a 25-yearold quarterback in his prime command in a trade for the Texans considering the Seattle Seahawks gave up a pair of first-round draft picks in a trade for strong safety Jamal Adams?
Here’s a look at potential destinations for Watson if a high-profile divorce ensues:
New York Jets
The Jets are regarded as one of the more realistic contenders.
New York has four firstround picks in the next two drafts, including the No. 2 overall selection this year, along with roughly $70 million in salary cap space in 2021. The Jets also have quarterback Sam Darnold under a rookie contract. The Jets also have two thirdround draft picks this year.
The Jets hired Robert Saleh, one of the head coaching candidates along with Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy that Watson wanted the Texans to interview. Saleh was never requested; Bieniemy was requested after Caserio was hired, and he interviewed Monday.
In 2008, the Denver Broncos traded Jay Cutler and a fifth-round pick to the Chicago Bears in exchange for a pair of first-round picks, a third-round pick and quarterback Kyle Orton.
However, Watson is a much better player than Cutler and will require a lot more in return for a deal to be struck.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are an attractive destination with strong leadership in coach Brian Flores and general manager Chris Grier.
Miami has two firstround draft picks and two second-round picks, including the third overall pick obtained from the Texans in the trade last year that sent left tackle Laremy Tunsil to Houston. The Dolphins are an ascending team, and Florida has no state income tax.
Miami has a quarterback with upside in Tua Tagovailoa, but that could be a dealbreaker for the Texans. Tagovailoa, a former Alabama standout who had his moments during his rookie season, isn’t regarded as a quarterback the Texans view as an adequate replacement for Watson, according to multiple league sources.
The Texans are considered far more likely to draft a quarterback, someone like Ohio State’s Justin Fields or BYU’s Zach Wilson, to replace Watson than swap him out for Tagovailoa.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers’ intricate playbook orchestrated by Kyle Shanahan is tailor-made for Watson’s passing and running skills.
San Francisco hasn’t had a quarterback of Watson’s caliber since Joe Montana and Steve Young.
Watson led the NFL in passing yards last season and threw 33 touchdown passes despite being sacked 49 times on a 4-12 squad.
The 49ers could offer elite defensive end Nick Bosa as part of an extensive package involving Watson and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Another wrinkle: Garoppolo, 29, is due $24.1 million in 2021 and has a notrade clause.
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers have the No. 8 pick of the first round and need quarterback help after Teddy Bridgewater passed for 3,733 yards, 15 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
The only way the Texans could wisely entertain a deal with Carolina would be if they get running back Christian McCaffrey along with at least two first-round draft picks.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos need an upgrade from quarterback Drew Lock and hold the No. 9 overall pick of the first round this year.
To make a serious offer, Denver would need to likely include pass rusher Bradley Chubb or, possibly, wide receiver Courtland Sutton, as well as multiple first-round draft picks.
Chicago Bears
This would give general manager Ryan Pace a chance to admit his mistake from 2017 when he picked quarterback Mitchell Trubisky instead of Watson and Patrick Mahomes.
The Bears don’t have a lot to give the Texans, with no extra first-round draft picks in the next two drafts. They also have a tight salary-cap situation. It’s doubtful Watson would want to play for a team that passed on him in the draft.
Indianapolis Colts
NFL teams rarely make the mistake of conducting serious business within their own division, but the Colts definitely need a quarterback after Philip Rivers’ retirement.
The Colts would likely need to send at least their next three first-round draft picks to have a realistic conversation about Watson. Basically, this is a non-starter.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Should new coach Urban Meyer try to wheel and deal with the Texans for Watson?
It would mean getting an established quarterback in Watson and losing the chance to draft Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence first overall. The Texans wouldn’t want to face Watson twice annually.
The Jaguars do have two first-round picks, two second-round selections and a pair of fourth-rounders this year.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is one of the strongest leaders in the NFL, and this is one of the most stable organizations in professional sports in terms of ownership and the front office.
The Steelers have a decision to make on Ben Roethlisberger, though, and don’t draft until the 24th pick of the first round.
Trading for Watson would be an out-of-character move for veteran general manager Kevin Colbert, who does most of his roster-building through the draft.
New Orleans Saints
Drew Brees is retiring, and Watson would be an excellent replacement for him.
The Saints have a strong roster but also some thorny salary-cap issues.
The Saints have a proven track record of acquiring talent in the draft, with Sean Payton and Jeff Ireland remaining in place. Terry Fontenot was hired as the Falcons’ general manager.
New England Patriots
It’s hard to envision Bill Belichick entertaining a huge trade for Watson despite the struggles of Cam Newton as Tom Brady’s replacement last season.
But the Patriots do have roughly $54 million in salary-cap space available and the 15th overall pick of the first round.
Belichick and Watson have a lot of mutual respect..
Plus, there are a lot of connections between New England and the Texans, given the presence of former Patriots staffers Caserio and executive vice president of football operations Jack Easterby in Houston. A Watson trade is still considered a highly unlikely scenario.
Las Vegas Raiders
Jon Gruden has stuck with Derek Carr for years, and he hasn’t gotten enough wins in return.
Gruden is a huge Watson fan, and it’s no secret he’s annually weighing his options at the position despite Carr’s steady production.
There’s no state income tax in Nevada, and there’s the glitter of Las Vegas to consider for Watson, as well as playing with running back Josh Jacobs and tight end Darren Waller.
The Raiders would likely need to send Carr and two first-round draft picks to the Texans to have a chance to land Watson.
Atlanta Falcons
Watson is from nearby Gainesville, Ga., making this his hometown NFL team. He’s a former Falcons ball boy.
The Falcons have the No. 4 overall pick of the first round but have a tight salary cap given the presence of 35-year-old quarterback Matt Ryan.
This seems like a major long shot, but one scenario would involve the Texans sending Watson to the Falcons for their next three years of first-round draft picks and more to make them take on Ryan’s contract. Ryan has a $40.9 million salary-cap figure in 2021, and the Falcons are $31 million over the projected cap.
“Bottom line, it’s crazy to think the Texans would be dumb enough to trade Deshaun,” an NFL executive said. “Nick Caserio is a very smart guy. I would bet he figures out a way to make Deshaun happy and fix this thing before it gets further out of hand. They don’t play a game until September, so there’s a lot of time to smooth things over.”