U.S. and Mexico: Real engagement or simply cordial?
On Jan. 22, President Joe Biden spoke with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. It was Biden’s third day as president and his second call to a foreign leader from the Oval Office.
This cordial post-inauguration exchange is perhaps expected given the U.S. and Mexico’s shared history and interests. Mexico is one of the U.S.’ top trading partners, second to only China in 2020. It is also the country of origin of the largest immigrant community in the U.S. and home to the largest U.S. expatriate community in the world.
Yet, over the past four years, U.S.-Mexico relations atrophied. Now it’s up to Biden to restore this key regional partnership. This will likely prove to be quite challenging. His institutional approach to bilateral affairs appears to threaten López Obrador, who resonated with Donald Trump’s leadership style.
The Mexican president didn’t appear pleased about Trump’s departure from the White House. López Obrador waited six weeks to congratulate President Biden on the election results. On their initial phone call in December, he stressed his close relationship with Trump.
When Biden and López Obrador spoke for the second time on Jan. 22, their discussion focused on regional migration. Biden went over his plans to reverse Trump’s draconian immigration policies, address root causes of migration in Central America and increase refugee settlement capacity. This is all an easy ask of Mexico. And Biden’s halt to the border wall construction, preservation of DACA and proposed path to U.S. citizenship for millions of Mexicans is welcome news for López Obrador.
It appears, however, that Biden will find less common ground on other issues.
To start off, the pandemic presents an urgent challenge. Mexico’s public health system has been at the point of collapse. With a 2,000-mile shared border, binational coordination is essential.
Yet, the two leaders don’t exactly see eye to eye on public health messaging. After downplaying the pandemic for almost a year, López Obrador recently contracted COVID-19 and is currently isolating at the National Palace. In contrast, Biden released a comprehensive pandemic strategy during his first days in office.
As part of this strategy, Biden signed an executive order requiring travelers from abroad to provide a negative test and self-quarantine. This will take a hit on Mexico’s tourism industry that has benefited from the arrival of hundreds of thousands of U.S. travelers in recent months. While the new rules should motivate bilateral coordination, Mexico has low testing rates and might balk.
The high level of cross-border mobility also calls for cooperation on vaccinations. Yet, when Mexico’s COVID-19 vaccination program recently had to be paused over shipment delays, López Obrador reached out to Russian President Vladimir Putin. During the phone call, López Obrador secured doses of the Sputnik vaccine, invited Putin to visit Mexico and discussed sending Mexican medical professionals to Russia for training. Cozy Mexico-Russia relations could pose a challenge for the new U.S. administration.
Security will be even trickier for Biden to navigate. In the past few months, bilateral security cooperation reached an all-time low. Mexico’s attorney general exonerated former Defense Minister General Salvador Cienfuegos, who U.S. prosecutors had charged in the fall for drug trafficking and money laundering. López Obrador then released classified U.S. documents and reinstated Cienfuegos as an adviser at the Ministry of Defense. Making matters more challenging, Mexico’s Congress passed a law in December to limit U.S. law enforcement operations.
Restoring vigorous U.S.-Mexico cooperation on public health, security, the economy, trade and climate change will likely be an uphill battle for the new U.S. administration. But Biden must find a way to move beyond cordiality and engage across issue areas. The region’s recovery from the pandemic and long-term prosperity depend on a robust bilateral relationship. Let’s hope both sides appreciate the urgency.