County population shrinks during pandemic
More people are moving out of Harris County than are moving in as the pandemic sustains a shift from urban centers to the suburbs, according to an analysis of smartphone data by location information company Unacast. It estimated Harris County saw a net outflow of 10,000 residents, representing income of $740 million, to other counties in 2020.
The trend could have implications for Harris County tax collections, real estate investment and the leasing markets.
“That most of the loss of population came from (Houston) proper, and Harris County is a red flag for any investment in that area,” said Unacast in its analysis. “In the near future, expect a … continued shrinkage and stagnation in rental and leasing markets in downtown Houston.”
The analysis, which used anonymous smartphone location data from thousands of apps, indicated Harris and Waller counties shrank while the surrounding suburbs grew. Montgomery County added a net 6,500 residents in 2020, and Fort Bend County added 6,300. According to Unacast, 30 percent of the people leaving Harris County moved to a neighboring county.
There are three sources of population growth: natural growth, the number of births minus the number of deaths; people who move in from elsewhere in the country; and people who move in internationally. Nationwide, the natural growth of counties’ populations have slowed as the country ages and millennials are choosing to have fewer children later in life. International migration has also declined every year since 2016 as the nation adopted a more closed stance toward immigration. But now Harris County’s domestic migration has turned negative while surrounding counties expand.
The shift is continuation of a trend that began in the wake of the 2015 fracking bust, then Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Now, Unacast’s data suggest COVID — which accelerated a national trend of families seeking to escape rapidly rising costs in the urban core — is keeping Harris County’s domestic migration in the red. Census data show that the problem of domestic migration is so pronounced that it caused Harris County's overall population to
stagnate in 2018. Taking all forms of population change into account, the region's growth was concentrated in the suburbs.
The novel coronavirus, which drove many companies to go remote and has resulted in more time spent at home, may have added fuel to that trend. No longer worried about a commute, many are opting to live further from the city’s core in less dense areas with access to the outdoors.
Economic growth has followed population growth in the suburbs. For example, between 2012 and 2016, the number of business establishments in Brazoria County increased by nearly 11 percent, according to Census data.
Data from the apartment search website RentCafe showed rents have softened in Houston. In December, the average rent had fallen 1.2 percent from the year before, while the average rent in Missouri City in Fort Bend County had risen 4.7 percent.
Igor Popov, chief economist at the rental website Apartment List, said falling rents in urban cores and rising rents in the suburbs is a trend playing out throughout the country. The premium renters were once willing to pay to live close to work, happy hours, museums and entertainment fell as social distancing closed offices and other establishments. However, he believes urban areas will rebound after the pandemic.
“At the very least, I think the longing for events and entertainment will fuel a lot of urban demand once social distancing is truly a thing of the past,” he said. “If renters return to small businesses and large offices in droves, then we’ll really see a full pendulum swing back.”