Baseball could teach ERCOT how to fix Texas’ grid
Let’s set the record straight here. The power outages are not primarily the result of frozen wind turbines. While they are a contributor, so are natural gas power plants, coal power plants and electric grids not designed for this kind of weather event. Do not waste time punting the political football back and forth. Instead, recognize that the problem is the football itself. In other words, here is why we are in this predicament:
Politicians are driving government action based on popular opinion and political agendas only and rarely consider anything else.
Across our political landscape, our elected officials struggle to think analytically — period. Their entire calculus is based on popular opinion. We can look at almost any arena and see the same thing. We spend trillions of dollars on health care while we subsidize foods such as sugar that cause long-term problems. People have racked up $200,000 worth of college debt pursuing a degree, when there are few jobs with high enough salaries to pay off that debt. Will government paying off that debt solve that problem, or make it worse? And why, if we have the knowledge to account for this weather, was our electric grid not adequately designed? These are complex problems in complex systems, and answers will never be as simple as a punch line.
Over the past 30 years, our infrastructure has deteriorated across the country. Water plants, roads and electrical systems are strained. But instead of making these projects a priority, we prioritize political agendas like subsidizing electric cars, border walls and free college.
I am a proud Republican, and I recognize that this failure spans our political landscape. Having served six years on the Texas Railroad Commission, this reluctance to deal with complex problems became painfully obvious in 2020. When oil prices dropped to negative $27 per barrel, a proposal was put forth to prorate oil production — a method of limited drilling — across Texas to stabilize the market. There were two decisions to make: Whether to analyze the market and determine how proration might make an impact, then whether to implement proration. The failure was that the three commissioners listened to hours of opinion from interested parties but performed no analysis. Afterward, two of three railroad commissioners were not willing to proceed. So, the politicians killed the idea rather than allow the staff to perform the analyses necessary to examine how proration might affect the market.
It is easy to overlook things that are not immediate issues. Prior to the crippling effects of COVID and the freeze-induced power outages we have not thought about the reliability of our society’s functions. But in the past year, that has changed. So, how can we shift away from what we are doing today, and get back to improving the complex systems that make our everyday life work? This will take a change, but a change that we have seen before.
In the 1970s, Bill James issued a set of papers in which he advocated for baseball to use a different set of statistics to maximize the performance of the team. However, he was largely ignored. It wasn’t until Billy Beane was forced to get creative with the 2002 Oakland Athletics that people began to think differently. Since then, the “Moneyball” story has sparked changes that have revolutionized the game of baseball as we know it. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the Public Utilities Commission and our politicians need to take the data-driven and open-minded approach of baseball to solve our complex problems.
I believe we are entering into a different era of politics. We must replace political reaction with analysis and forethought. We must replace simple political talking points with deeply thought solutions to complex problems. I don’t say this as a former elected official, I say it as an engineer and a data scientist. If we don’t want to continue missteps with college tuition, health care spending and the frozen power grid, then we cannot keep doing what we have been. Instead, it is time for real change. Look for those leaders who talk less, analyze more and are proactive not reactive.
Sitton is the CEO of Pinnacle, served six years as Texas Railroad Commissioner regulating oil and gas in Texas and is author of Crucial Decisions, which analyzes how data and experts are used in complex situations.