Scientists say summer could bring pandemic relief we’re longing for
It’s been months since David Rubin’s children have seen their 87-year-old grandmother, and only from a distance because of coronavirus. But Rubin, an epidemiologist at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, is now making plans for a family reunion this summer — hunting for a rental property big enough to fit four families.
“As a modeler, my mind works in terms of probabilities, and the probability of a great summer is really increasing,” Rubin, director of the hospital’s PolicyLab, said.
There is a good chance that by summer, America will look and feel very different. Eating inside a restaurant or a friend’s house may no longer be controversial. Cookouts and summer vacations may return. Many aspects of life will be reminiscent of a time before coronavirus — as long as vaccinations continue to increase and Americans stay careful during the spring, according to interviews with more than a dozen epidemiologists, modelers and virologists.
“There are wild card factors that could change this, but I’ve been telling people if there are things you’ve been wanting to do, think July or late summer,” said Jeffrey Shaman, an infectious-disease expert who leads the modeling team at Columbia University.
Some of the growing reasons for optimism: Cases, hospitalizations and deaths have fallen steeply the past few weeks in the U.S. and worldwide. The World Health Organization reported an 11 percent global decline in cases last week and a 20 percent drop in deaths. More than 46 million Americans have received at least one dose of coronavirus vaccine, and supply is poised to increase dramatically. This week, a third vaccine was found to be safe and effective and will likely be approved for emergency use within days.
Widespread vaccination is the key to having the kind of summer everyone wants. By July 1, roughly 46 percent of the U.S. population — about 153 million people — could be vaccinated, according to projections by data scientist Youyang Gu, whose past models have been cited by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
President Joe Biden said the U.S. will have enough supply to vaccinate 300 million Americans by the end of July; Anthony Fauci, the government’s leading infectious-disease expert, predicted this month that all Americans will likely be eligible to receive a vaccine by late May or early June. And long before that, the country’s oldest and most vulnerable will have been fully vaccinated, sending the death rate plummeting.
Residents at one senior living community in Virginia Beach, Va., have already glimpsed what that future may look and feel like. Nearly all of the 700 seniors at Westminster-Canterbury on Chesapeake Bay have now received their second vaccine dose, and 80 percent of the staff.
“There’s just pure joy in the air, a feeling of renewal that’s just palpable,” said John Wolfe, president of the resident’s association.
There hasn’t been an active
COVID case since late December. Last Sunday, the facility held its first in-person church service at its chapel, though everyone still wore masks for safety.
“It’s like the light at end of tunnel has finally arrived,” said Wolfe, 79.
Weather is another reason experts are optimistic about summer: warmer temperatures will allow more people to congregate outside, where conditions are less hospitable to the spread of the virus.
For the past year, Natalie Dean, an assistant professor of biostatistics at University of Florida, has dreamed of bringing her children to visit their grandparents in Massachusetts. By summer, transmission will hopefully be low enough to make a flight safe for her family. The vaccine will allow the grandparents to see her children without fearing the virus could kill them.
“The virus won’t be gone by summer, but we’ll at least have some joy back in our lives,” she said.
But if the past year has taught researchers one thing, it is how wily, resourceful and unpredictable the coronavirus can be. Experts who believe that summer could be relatively normal remain cautious about the near term as highly transmissible variants are circulating that could cause a spring spike in cases.
“It’s clear there isn’t going to be some on/off switch where we wake up and the virus is gone,” said Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at Georgetown University. “How it all turns out depends on a lot on the virus’ behavior but also on us humans and what we choose to do.”
Growing concerns about a spring increase in cases are compounded by officials easing restrictions. Iowa and Montana have lifted mask mandates. New York is reopening stadiums for concerts. California and Washington, D.C., are now allowing indoor dining.
“Reopening just as these variants are spreading is not smart,” Tom Frieden, former director of the CDC. “We’re like a punch drunk boxer, getting up just as our opponent is preparing to deliver an even faster punch. … By reopening we’re leaning into that left hook. Why can’t we ever learn?”
In the U.S., it might take years to reach herd immunity — if it is ever reached. Experts estimate the threshold for herd immunity could lie somewhere between 70 and 85 percent of the population.
Failing to reach herd immunity doesn’t mean the situation will remain dire. As the country draws closer to that threshold in the summer and beyond, the pandemic will dwindle.
“There are still many obstacles we have to get through,” said Rubin, the epidemiologist at Children’s Hospital, “but at least we can start making plans again.”
“The virus won’t be gone by summer, but at least we’ll have some joy back in our lives.” Natalie Dean, assistant professor of biostatistics, University of Florida