Just three more months for safety, governor
When books are written about the great pandemic of our age, at least a chapter will be devoted to a defining characteristic of this crisis: the fact that at every opportunity we collectively lurch to controversy and division, never to consensus and unity. We seem to be unable to deal with uncertainty and nuance. We may long for the sharp black and white edges of certainty, but we live in a world of blurry grays.
This week was much like any other in the pandemic, with our latest controversy related to Gov. Greg Abbott’s decision to rescind the state mask mandate. However, in this case we are presented with a clear black and white issue: The decision to lift the mask mandate was premature.
To be clear, thoughtful people understand the urgent need to reopen the economy. The viral induced economic slowdown has caused real and substantial harm to thousands. I fully support the governor’s efforts to reopen businesses safely (which probably does require some ongoing indoor occupancy limits). However, the mask mandate should not be lifted.
Data does not support this decision
Relaxation of our viral control practices should be based on real-time data, not on what we hope future data will show. If you thought there was a good chance you were going to get a raise at work, would you go out and buy a new car hoping the raise comes through? Most of us would wait for certainty. When we look at the current viral metrics in the greater Houston area — new cases, test positivity rates, hospital admission rates — they have all markedly improved off our January peak. We hope they will continue to improve. As we vaccinate more people, improvement will accelerate, but for now the disease burden is unacceptably high. We should not rescind the mandate until our metrics improve significantly (a sign we are starting to reach herd immunity), and we have held those improvements for at least a couple of weeks. No one can predict when this will occur, but it is likely in the range of 30 to 90 days. It is not next Wednesday.
The decision is a morale-buster for health care workers
Even during off-peak, non-surge times, hospitals and ICUs have been full of critically ill COVID-19 patients. Our health care workers have been working flat-out for a solid year without respite, at great personal sacrifice. Over the past few weeks there has been hope. We now have three effective vaccines and anticipate enough supply to ultimately vaccinate every willing person in the country. Texas is getting vaccines into arms, with about 13 percent of the population receiving at least one dose. Overburdened health care workers finally had some hope herd immunity was an achievable goal.
The bridge to get us there — masking, distancing, avoiding aggregation in crowds — is now at risk.
The conversation among my colleagues has shifted from “it looks like the end is in sight” to “I wonder how bad the fourth surge will be.”
The masking decision is bad for business
In the days following the announcement of the lifting of the masking order, many businesses communicated their intention to continue to mask and follow good viral control practices. It is gratifying to see small businesses — the lifeblood of our community — who are trying to simultaneously manage in difficult times and do what is right for the well-being of our neighbors. In the absence of the statewide mask order, we have functionally shifted the responsibility for enforcement of an important public health priority from government to receptionists, baristas and grocers, most of whom have not yet been vaccinated and have legitimate concerns regarding their own safety.
The lifting of the mask order should have been a time for celebration, not controversy. At this point, there is very little chance it will be reinstated absent a significant worsening of the public health crisis. As we continue to move toward the end of the pandemic, I would ask we all focus on elements of the governor’s message that received less attention: the pandemic is not over, and we all have a personal responsibility to do the right thing to protect each other. Wear a mask. Maintain safe distance. Stay out of crowded indoor environments. Patronize businesses that are working to keep us safe. Thank your barista.