ERCOT: Grid now prepared for a hot summer
Officials forecast few — if any — blackouts
While Texas is expected to consume a record amount of electricity this summer, the state’s grid manager, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, said it will have more than enough power to meet demand.
ERCOT on Thursday said it predicts that power consumption during the summer will reach a high of 77,144 megawatts and that generators will provide 87,000 megawatts. ERCOT said its reserve margin could grow to about 15.5 percent, nearly 3 percentage points more than the 12.6 margin the grid had as it entered last summer.
The grid manager said it is prepared to have an additional 2,300 megawatts of power available to meet demand during summer energy emergencies. One megawatt can power about 200 homes during a hot summer day in Texas.
“We are accounting for the case where you’ve got extreme heat waves that cover all of Texas. That’s a very low probability, high impact type of scenario,” said Pete Warnken, manager of resource adequacy at ERCOT, during a call with the media Thursday.
Before summer arrives, new generation projects are expected to add 5,489 megawatts of renewable and gas-fired power, according to ERCOT.
“ERCOT will benefit from growth in generation resources, but forecasts are also showing another recordbreaking summer on the demand side,” said Woody Rickerson, ERCOT’s vice president of grid planning and operations, in a news release. “Overall, power reserves are in a better position heading into this summer compared to the past few years.”
The grid manager’s assurances for plentiful power during the summer come just weeks after February’s deadly power crisis caused by a brutally cold winter storm. Millions of Texans were without power for several days after single-digit temperatures knocked out power generators and left the state grid short of the power necessary to meet demand.
“We recently experienced
a terrible tragedy, and ERCOT is committed to working with legislators, regulators and stakeholders on how to prepare for more
extreme outcomes moving forward,” Rickerson said. “We must strike a balance between communicating the possibility of these types
of conditions and providing realistic seasonal expectations.”
The Texas grid is typically better prepared for summer’s
extreme heat rather than the unprecedented cold that swept through the state in February. Extreme weather during summer likely won’t lead to another power crisis, Warnken said.
“It wouldn’t be as much of a problem as what happened this winter, where you had construct failures in terms of equipment as well as the natural gas infrastructure,” Warnken said. “There are certainly risks involved, but it’s a different situation.”
Even as ERCOT is bracing for record demand this summer, spokeswoman Leslie Sopko said the probability of controlled outages remains low.
“There’s always a risk. The data for this summer is based on what we know today,” Sopko said during the call. “It is also worth keeping in mind that we are anticipating record breaking demand on the system. Of course, we will closely monitor the situation as we move into the summer months.”