Finally get to roots of the migrant crisis
What is the best way to finally address the cyclical nature of the migrant crisis? At a time when the U.S. government estimates a record 2 million migrants could reach the border this fiscal year, we should refocus attention on the root causes of migration, not pedaling false promises of an invincible border.
There is, indeed, a crisis — but it starts over 2,000 miles south — in Central America’s Northern Triangle. And this crisis is not new. It has been decades in the making in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and even Nicaragua. It dates back to systemic challenges, among which are civil wars and the failure to see through the society-wide changes that many hoped peace would bring.
Migrants will keep coming until we can advance a long-term plan that improves daily lives so people do not have to migrate. We started doing so in 2014 when, as vice president, Joe Biden led the creation of a regional plan to address the interconnected pillars that cause economic despair and the security and governance challenges that force people to leave. He pushed for regional governments to do their part and Congress approved a significant ramp-up in complementary U.S. support.
But real solutions will take years, more likely a decade of investment. So, in redirecting assistance away from the Northern Triangle, the Trump administration undid progress made, effectively handing President Biden a blank slate to again put forward what is needed: a long-term plan that won’t be undone by political winds.
To truly understand the driving factors of migration, we must understand the context in Central America. In addition to the gang violence, lack of economic opportunities and poverty, government corruption and weak governance, the countries’ political contexts are worrisome.
In El Salvador, legislative elections this past February consolidated the popular Nayib Bukele’s hold on power. Just a year before, in a sign of deep divisions, President Bukele used the military to seize Congress and sat down in the “Speaker’s” chair to intimidate lawmakers for not approving an international loan requested by his administration. In Honduras, President Juan Orlando Hernández — whose 2017 re-election was contested by the international community but recognized by the Trump administration — is accused of involvement in drug trafficking to the United States. Several smugglers have testified in U.S. courts to bribing the president, and his brother and former congressman Tony Hernandez, was sentenced at the end of March, to life in prison. In Guatemala, the Congress went up in flames in November of last year over a proposed budget that sought to cut health spending (in the middle of a pandemic) and favored infrastructure projects with the Ministry for Communications, Infrastructure, and Housing, known for its alleged involvement in a series of high-profile corruption cases.
Beyond political challenges, the region has been hard hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and two deadly back-to-back hurricanes. In announcing Vice President Harris’ new position to oversee diplomatic efforts with this region, President Biden rightfully called attention to the phenomenon of climate migrants. Meanwhile, corruption ravages countries, disincentivizing domestic and foreign investment.
The situation in the Northern Triangle has become untenable. President Biden’s history in the region — 16 trips to Latin America as Vice President — and his understanding of the history and issues in Central America brings hope. As these nations begin to think about a post-pandemic recovery plan, the timing may work to trace the contours of a new Central America. The recent trip to Mexico by a high-level U.S. delegation and the conversation between Vice President Kamala Harris and Guatemala President Alejandro Giammattei and Special Envoy Ricardo Zúñiga’s follow-up trip to Guatemala and El Salvador last week, are welcome signs that the involved parties are committed to finding a long-term fix to these issues. Importantly, one of President Biden’s first executive orders was focused on addressing the root cause of migration.
A central pillar of the United States strategy must be to insist that Northern Triangle governments commit to a longterm plan that improves the rule of law and stamps out the many bureaucratic practices that foster corruption. And the Northern Triangle’s private sector must play its part as well in being good corporate citizens that pay taxes and commit to fostering opportunities for workers. Anticorruption, violence reduction, citizen security are all equally important, but bringing economic prosperity in a region ravaged by the pandemic and climate disasters must be the number one priority. With the Biden administration’s commitment to the region, this migration crisis has the potential to finally incentivize a long-term solution. But all parties must be on board first.