Quarterback options are plentiful in the draft — even for the Texans.
Texas A&M’s Mond could possibly slide to 67th overall pick
No position in the NFL draft is a bigger crapshoot than quarterback.
With teams investing so much time and money into scouting quarterbacks, it’s amazing how many of them don’t live up to the high expectations general managers and coaches have when they’re drafted.
Next week’s draft should be one of the riskiest in league history. There was no combine or private workouts because of COVID-19 restrictions. Some prospects opted out last season, and others played a limited number of games because of the pandemic.
Still, five quarterbacks are projected to be among the top 10 picks. The first three draft choices are supposed to be quarterbacks for the third time in history. It’s possible the first four prospects off the board could be quarterbacks.
The Texans don’t have picks in the first two rounds, but that doesn’t mean they can’t draft a quarterback who can solidify the position, if, as expected, Deshaun Watson is traded at some point.
Three of the NFL’s best quarterbacks — Tom Brady (sixth), Russell Wilson (third) and Kirk Cousins (fourth) — weren’t drafted in the first two rounds.
That could bode well for the second tier of prospects such as Kellen Mond, Kyle Trask, Davis Mills and Jamie Newman if general manager Nick Caserio is interested in one of them with the 67th overall selection.
Before the Texans selected Watson in 2017, they used only one first-round pick on a quarterback — David Carr, first overall in 2002. He played five seasons before they released him and traded for Matt Schaub in 2007. Schaub was their primary starter for seven seasons.
When Bill O’Brien was hired in 2014, he had a new starting quarterback in his first four seasons. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Hoyer, Brock Osweiler and Tom Savage preceded Watson.
Watson, who has been demanding to be traded since January, hasn’t changed his mind about leaving the Texans. The feeling is after Watson resolves his legal problems, Caserio will listen to offers for teams still in the market for a quarterback.
As it stands today, the Texans have quarterbacks Tyrod Taylor and Ryan Finley, both acquired by Caserio. It’s going to be interesting to see if Caserio drafts a third quarterback. And if he does, what round will it be?
Three of the best quarter
backs I’ve seen — Brady, Joe Montana (third) and Johnny Unitas (ninth round) — weren’t drafted in the first two rounds.
The other quarterbacks in my top five, John Elway and Peyton Manning, were first overall picks.
Funny thing about quarterbacks selected among the top three picks.
Between 2014 and 2018, there were eight quarterbacks selected within the first three picks, and only Cleveland’s Baker Mayfield (first) is still playing with the team that drafted him.
Jacksonville’s Blake Bortles (third overall), Tampa Bay’s Jameis Winston (first), Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota (second), the Los Angeles Rams’ Jared Goff (first), Philadelphia’s Carson Wentz (second), Chicago’s Mitch Trubisky (second) and the New York Jets’ Sam Darnold (third) are no longer with the team that drafted them.
No matter how many busts there are or how many just don’t develop the way teams expected them to, that kind of failure hasn’t kept general managers from continuing to invest heavily in the NFL’s most important position.
Trevor Lawrence, who’s going first overall to Jacksonville, is the only can’tmiss prospect at quarterback this year. He started 36 games at Clemson. Zach Wilson, destined to go second overall to the Jets, started 28 games in three seasons at Brigham Young and had to earn a starting job in 2020.
Of the other leading prospects, Justin Fields (Ohio State) started only 22 games, Mac Jones (Alabama) 17 and Trey Lance (North Dakota State) 17, including one game in 2020.
Contrast their lack of experience with Mond, who started 46 games at Texas A&M and is projected to be drafted in the second or third round. Mond started 10 more games than Lawrence, the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck in 2012.
Of the other quarterbacks in Mond’s group of prospects, Newman started 18 games at Wake Forest before transferring to Georgia last year and then opting out. Trask started 12 games at Florida and Mills 11 at Stanford.
Starting experience in college used to be a vital factor when scouting quarterbacks, but teams have been forced to make adjustments because a fouryear starter such as Mond is so rare. That kind of experience is one reason Mond’s stock has been going up since the Aggies’ season ended.
Just how valuable is a franchise quarterback, and why are teams so desperate to fill that position?
Since the Colts made Manning the first overall pick in 1998, the NFL hasn’t gone more than two consecutive years without a quarterback being the first pick. That was in 2013-14 when offensive tackle Eric Fisher (Kansas City) and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney (Texans) were selected first overall in back-to-back drafts.
Before the league changed the rules to place more emphasis on passing and scoring and restricting defensive players to further enhance the passing game, it was common to go several years without a quarterback going first overall.
Dating to 1960, there was a seven-year period (1976-82) between quarterbacks being the first pick — Steve Bartkowski (Atlanta) in 1975 and Elway in 1983.
Thursday, Lawrence will be the fourth consecutive quarterback drafted first overall.
Barring upsets, the Jaguars, Jets and 49ers are prepared to take quarterbacks with the first three picks, but there’s something for their fans to keep in mind: Of the top nine quarterbacks in 2020 passer rating, none was drafted among the first three picks.