Garcia making a strong case for Rookie of the Year
The Astros have a six-year stranglehold on American League Rookie of the Year voting. Carlos Correa and Yordan Alvarez captured the award four years apart. Cristian Javier finished third last season. Chris Devenski and Yuli Gurriel came in fourth in consecutive years, too.
Luis Garcia will extend the streak this winter. A top-three finish is almost guaranteed, even if a late September swoon hits. The 24-year-old righthander has, at most, three more regular-season
starts to solidify his candidacy.
“He’s been unbelievable for us,” third baseman Alex Bregman said. “Every time he goes out there he gives us a chance to win. Competes, works extremely hard on the days he’s not pitching. He’s a student of the game and he’s a great teammate. He’s been a leader for us, and I’m super happy for him for the season he has had. I do believe he should win Rookie of the Year.”
Garcia’s main competition was in the first-base dugout during the Astros’ 12-1 victory over Texas in Arlington on Thursday night. Rangers manager Chris Woodward gave Adolis Garcia a rare night off. Luis Garcia was scheduled to have one, too, until Framber Valdez cut his left index finger on the outfield wall during batting practice Wednesday.
Thrust into an unscheduled start — but still operating on a full five days rest — Garcia gave the Astros 5⅓ quality innings. His command faded for a second straight start and his stuff seems a tick down from earlier in the season. Still, he surrendered just one run and got the club into the sixth.
The outing lowered Garcia’s ERA to 3.37 in 145⅓ innings. The only American League rookie to throw more innings — Oakland’s Cole Irvin — has a 4.04 ERA in 158⅓ innings.
Garcia’s case as the American League’s best rookie starter is sealed. Tampa’s Shane McClanahan seems a close second, but he hasn’t undertaken anything near Garcia’s workload.
Cleveland starter Tristan McKenzie is surging, too, along with teammate Emmanuel Clase, the Indians closer who throws 100 mph cutters. But Garcia’s sixmonth consistency can’t be matched. He hasn’t allowed more than five earned runs in any start, and he has three starts of at least six scoreless innings.
Fourteen of Garcia’s 26 starts featured two earned runs or fewer. He’s gone at least five innings 20 times, too. Garcia’s performance Thursday helped lower Houston’s magic number to 10 to clinch the American League West.
“Without him, we’d probably be a lot closer than we are right now in the division,” Correa said. “He’s been a key component of our team. Pitching is very important when it comes to winning championships, and he’s been at the forefront of it all year long.”
Awards voting rarely comes down to strictly counting stats. Advanced metrics sway a large swath of Baseball Writers Association of America members who cast the five-person ballots — which are due before the playoffs.
Among American League rookies who’ve thrown at least 100 innings, Garcia’s 3.48 FIP trails only McClanahan’s 3.24 mark, but Garcia has thrown nearly 30 innings more. According to FanGraphs, Garcia leads all American League rookie pitchers in wins above replacement. He entered Thursday worth 3.0 fWAR.
So, too, did Adolis Garcia. The Rangers slugger set a franchise rookie record with his 30th home run in Wednesday’s win over the Astros. Adolis and Luis Garcia are the only two American League rookies worth at least three wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs.
The electorate, then, faces an age-old dilemma: reward a pitcher who appears every five days or a position player who impacts his club daily. Tampa playoff hero Randy Arozarena and teammate Wander Franco loom at 2.4 and 2.2 fWAR, respectively. Their meaning to a team running away with the American League East can’t be overstated.
Neither can Luis Garcia’s to the Astros.
“He’s been very valuable for this team,” Correa said. “He’s been the pitcher with the highest fWAR on our team. When you’re in first place in a division like ours where everyone is competing to make a playoff spot and you get a rookie with the highest WAR, what’s more valuable than that?”