VERLANDER VOWS TO ACE SECOND TEST
Cy Young favorite believes he’ll bounce back from the worst postseason start of his career
In a 2022 season defined by his remarkable comeback from Tommy John surgery and a bid for a third career Cy Young Award, Justin Verlander’s first start of the playoffs was his worst of the year and among the worst of his postseason career.
In Game 1 of the American League Division Series against Seattle, Verlander surrendered six earned runs on 10 hits in four innings. The rest of the Astros’ pitching staff allowed a combined three earned runs across 32 innings in the three-game ALDS sweep of the Mariners.
On the eve of his start in Wednesday’s Game 1 of the AL Championship Series, Verlander expressed confidence in his ability to bounce back and poked fun at himself for his poor division series outing.
“You see how hard it is to score runs against us, besides me in the first series,” he said.
The six earned runs Verlander allowed in his last start matched his postseason worst from Game 1 of the 2006 World Series, when he allowed seven runs total in five innings. It was also his shortest playoff start since he worked 32⁄3 innings on short rest in the Astros’ loss to the Rays in Game 4 of the 2019 ALDS.
On Tuesday, Verlander said he spent the week since his division series outing making mechanical adjustments, and he partly attributed his struggles to the calf injury that put him on the injured list from Aug. 30 to Sept. 16.
Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright tweeted last week that a lower body injury he suffered in late August threw off his timing and stride length for the latter part of the season, something Verlander said he identified with even though he posted a 1.50 ERA in three regular-season starts after his return.
“You hear pitchers talk about it all the time: We work so hard on our legs and lower body strength because that’s where we generate from, so any little tweaks to the lower half can have major effects upstream,” Verlander said. “I’m very thankful that it wasn’t a major injury and I don’t think it was a big issue, but it did probably create a little bit of mechanical issues, and I’ve been working on that ever since I came back. I’ve been working really hard.
“I think hopefully after the last (workout), I really think I identified some stuff that was kind of the key component. It’s just kind of deep mechanical stuff that I really probably shouldn’t really go too far into.”
Against the Mariners, Verlander generated just seven whiffs and struggled with fastball location. He threw 37 four-seamers for a called-strike-plus-whiff rate of just 16 percent. Verlander got to a two-strike count 22 times but got strike three only three times and gave up five hits, including a double and a triple.
“We worked on shoring up his delivery a little bit, being more on time consistently,” pitching coach Josh Miller said. “I think he was moving a little too quick and getting out of his delivery a little bit, and hopefully we stay in it and can execute his fastball to good locations.”
Verlander’s postseason stat lines generally haven’t matched the consistent efficiency of his regular-season performances, though a World Series ERA of 5.68 in seven appearances has dragged down his playoff averages some.
Verlander has allowed multiple home runs in eight postseason games. Four were in the World Series.
In 32 career playoff appearances, including 31 starts, Verlander has surrendered 77 earned runs across 1912⁄3 innings with 27 home runs. He has a 3.62 playoff ERA and a 3.41 strikeoutto-walk ratio.
In 102 regular-season starts totaling 652 innings pitched for Houston, Verlander has a 2.26 ERA and 7.24 strikeout-to-walk ratio with 82 home runs.
As a fly ball pitcher who leans heavily on his fastball, Verlander is prone to giving up home runs. In 2019, he led the majors in walks and hits per innings pitched while allowing 36 home runs, tied for third most among MLB pitchers, and still won his second Cy Young.
Walks have been more of an issue for Verlander in the playoffs. His 61 postseason walks are more than he issued in seven regular seasons in which he made at least 28 starts.
One caveat when evaluating Verlander’s playoff résumé is that it stretches over 16 years. The 39-year-old who pitches now for the Astros is ostensibly a different pitcher than the rookie who started for the Tigers in 2006. Verlander allowed 26 earned runs, one third of his postseason total, in the first eight playoff starts of his career for Detroit in 2006 and 2011.
Verlander is still far from a playoff slouch. His 208 career postseason strikeouts rank second all-time among MLB pitchers, trailing only Clayton Kershaw’s 213, and his 14 postseason wins are tied for third all-time. And Verlander is the Astros’ alltime leader in postseason wins (seven), starts (15) and innings pitched (93.1).
Given that, Astros manager Dusty Baker said he has full confidence in Verlander to get Houston off on the right foot in the AL Championship Series.
“This guy, he knows what it takes. So we’re not worried about Justin,” Baker said. “I mean, it can happen to anybody. I don’t care how great you are or what your track record says, that’s why you play the game. So we anticipate Justin to come out and throw a great game.”