Four-game trip starts by trying to end skid
With the Rockets carrying a five-game losing streak and a 1-8 start to the season, another fourgame road trip might not be the best way to turn things around.
There could be some benefits to be found in the next part of the schedule, however.
The Rockets start with a Minnesota Timberwolves team that had been surprisingly inconsistent following the dramatic offseason retooling with the trade for Rudy Gobert and the move of Karl-Anthony Towns to power forward. And while the Rockets have been off since Wednesday, the Timberwolves will be playing the second half of a backto-back after facing the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday.
The Timberwolves have won five of the past six meetings and averaged 134.7 points against the Rockets last season.
1. Better start needed
The Rockets have trailed by double digits in nine of their 10 games. The exception was the game they won.
If that was not enough of a reminder of the need to get off to better starts, falling behind 23-5 against the Clippers on Wednesday made that even more obvious.
This is not a sudden shortcoming. The Rockets have been outscored by 20.6 points per 100 possessions in the opening quarter, the secondworst net rating in the opening quarter in the NBA.
They have typically come back to get in the game but counting on beating the Timberwolves late might not be a good idea.
The Timberwolves have outscored opponents in the fourth quarter of every game this season going into Friday’s game against the Bucks. Their net rating in the fourth quarter, outscoring opponents by 24.9 points per 100 possessions in the final quarter, is the best in the NBA. The Rockets have been better in fourth quarters than in the opening quarter, but in their four games with “clutch situations” (a margin of five or fewer points in the final five minutes,) they have made just 21.1 percent of their shots and have not yet made a 3-pointer in those stretches.
They might need to get a lead instead of a deficit to escape.
2. Men in the middle
Center Alperen Sengun has been the Rockets’ most reliable offensive player, scoring effectively in the low post and working as a willing ball mover at the elbow or high post. The matchup with Gobert, however, will be his most challenging test.
Sengun has averaged 17.5 points, 10.5 rebounds and two assists in an average of 29.5 minutes in his four games since returning from an illness and moving into the starting lineup.
He is third in the NBA in scoring efficiency on post-ups, averaging 1.32 points per post-up, trailing only Marcus Morris Sr. and Paolo Banchero, who average less than half as many possessions handling the ball in the low post. His 4.7 post points per game rank fourth in the NBA.
Gobert, however, remains a defensive force. The three-time Defensive Player of the Year and six-time All-Defensive team selection, Gobert is the league’s leading rebounder, averaging 14 per game. But he was questionable to play on Friday because of an illness.
3. Get Smith going
Rookie forward Jabari Smith Jr. has not scored his average of 10.8 points in any of his past three games, making just 4 of 26 shots in that stretch, including 2 of 14 3s after missing all of his attempts from deep in the past two games. He has made 11 of 49 shots since the start of the previous four-game road trip.
With the Timberwolves’ size inside, he will have a tough matchup either on Towns or Gobert. But there could also be opportunities to pick-and-pop to open 3s against big men that could be hesitant to leave the lane.
The challenge, however, could be even greater on the other end. Towns posts up slightly less often than he did before playing with Gobert averaging just 2.8 post-ups per game. But Smith has struggled when defending inside, allowing a league-high 1.27 points per possession on postups.
Smith missed Friday’s practice and is questionable to play on Saturday because of an illness.
4. Crash glass, again
The Rockets would rather not need to depend so much on offensive rebounding and second-chance scoring, but as long as they are going to miss so many shots, it has helped that they are so good at getting the rebounds.
They lead the NBA in offensive rebounds and are third in secondchance points. That is only partially a function of having so many missed shots to chase. They are third in offensive rebounding percentage, potentially offering an opportunity against the Timberwolves.
Despite the Wolves’ great size, they have not rebounded well on the defensive end, ranking 27th in defensive rebounding percentage. They are 26th in secondchance points allowed. The Rockets would be better off if they did not need to score after so many missed shots, but that board work has kept them in games.
5. Star guard reunion
Jalen Green had one of his better games of his rookie season against his friend, Anthony Edwards, making 12 of 18 shots to score 31 points in the final meeting last season after struggling in the first two games between the Rockets and Timberwolves last season, including in Green’s NBA debut.
Edwards has played well against the Rockets, averaging 27 points on 49.2 percent shooting last season. He has become more efficient and explosive in each of his three seasons, averaging 23.1 points on 44.9 percent shooting going into Friday’s game against the Milwaukee Bucks.