Holiday shopping up, retailers say
Black Friday, Cyber Monday still popular as consumers spend despite inflation fears
About 8 million more Americans are expected to shop this Thanksgiving week than last year — the highest estimate the National Retail Federation has put out since they began tracking holiday shopping in 2017.
In a survey of over 7,700 Americans in early November, more than two-thirds of consumers said they plan to shop between Thanksgiving Day and Cyber Monday, with the most popular day by far being Black Friday. The National Retail Association, the world’s largest retail trade association, estimates that over 166 million Americans will take to in-person and online stores this weekend, outpacing every other estimate from the past six years.
The survey results mean that Houston may lag the nation in Thanksgiving weekend shopping. In a survey of Houston shoppers conducted earlier this year by Deloitte, only 35 percent of Houstonians said they planned to shop on Black Friday, and 30 percent said they would save some spending for Cyber Monday as well.
But the results of both surveys blunt concerns that inflation could put a dent in holiday shopping this year.
“While there is much speculation about inflation’s impact on consumer behavior, our data tells us that this Thanksgiving holiday weekend will see robust store traffic with a record number of shoppers taking advantage of value pricing,” Matthew Shay, CEO of the National Retail Federation, said in a statement.
This holiday season could not only break records in the number of people shopping, but also the amount they spend. The retail federation forecasts that holiday retail sales will grow between 6 to 8 percent this year, on top of a 13.5 percent increase last year. The upper end of the estimate would see consumers
spend over $960 billion during the holiday season, an increase of over $170 billion from last year.
More shoppers are also expected to return to in-person shopping than last year. About two-thirds of Black Friday shoppers say they plan to spend money in-store, compared to 64 percent in 2021.
The most popular category for spending will be clothing, with over half of consumers planning to buy new attire for themselves or others. Nearly $29 billion will be spent on gift cards this holiday season — an increase of $500 million from last year. The average shopper plans to buy three to four gift cards with about $50 on each gift card, according to surveys.
Part of the popularity of gift cards may be anxiety around the best gifts selling out, fueled by widespread supply chain shortages from last year. But retail executives said they don’t anticipate to run out of goods this year — if anything, consumers may see better promotional deals as retailers rush to get rid of their overstocked goods bought in fear of supply chain disruptions.
The National Retail Federation’s estimate puts Thanksgiving weekend shoppers at 166.3 million — nearly half of the total U.S. population —but the figure could end up higher. In 2021, nearly 180 million shoppers opened up their wallets on Thanksgiving weekend compared to the retail federation’s estimate of 158.3 million, and in 2019 a record 189.6 million Americans went shopping compared to the forecast of 165.3 million.