CANDIDATE ANALYSIS
Breaking down the candidates shows pluses, minuses of similar hires in NFL history
The Chronicle created two new statistics to determine if there was any significant correlation between an NFL head-coaching candidate’s level of experience and the level of success the candidate eventually had with the team that hired him.
While no significant correlation was found, the conclusion is still notable. There are myriad factors decision-makers must heavily consider when interviewing a head-coaching candidate and figuring out if they’re the right fit for the job. The candidate’s level of experience just shouldn’t matter all that much.
It’s more fruitful to judge a candidate’s experience by instead analyzing parallel case studies. Of the five franchises who entered the hiring cycle with a vacancy, the Texans are considering up-and-coming candidates the most. Below is an analysis of the candidates and their parallel cases studies.
Ejiro Evero, Mike Kafka
First-time coordinator, one year of experience
Examples: Mike McDaniel (Dolphins, 2022); Mike Vrabel (Titans, 2017); Jack Del Rio (Jaguars, 2003)
Best-case scenario: Mike Tomlin (Steelers, 2007) … No losing record in 16 seasons … 163-93-2 record (.636) … Super Bowl XXLIII champion… Super Bowl XLV runner-up
Worst-case scenario: Dennis Allen (Raiders, 2012) … Three straight 12-loss seasons … 8-28 record (.222) … Fired four games into third season Key Stats Occurrences: 16
Avg. tenure: 4.9 seasons* Win percentage: .541 Super Bowl appearances: 3
Super Bowl wins: 1 Summary: These are the most successful hirings. However, it should be noted that the top-end coaches of this category entered favorable scenarios. Bill Cowher’s baton handoff to Tomlin is perhaps the smoothest transition of power in NFL history. The Rams’ transition between Dick Vermeil and Mike Martz ranks second only because they lost Super Bowl XXXVI two years after Vermeil retired after winning Super Bowl XXXIV. The Packers lost just a season in between Mike Holmgren’s back-to-back Super Bowl appearances (one victory) and hiring his former tight ends coach, Mike Sherman, who’d spent one season as Holmgren’s offensive coordinator in Seattle. The Colts went 2-14 when Peyton Manning injured his neck, hired former Ravens defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano and drafted Andrew Luck No. 1 overall. Evero and Kafka certainly wouldn’t be tasked with sustaining the success of a stacked roster in Houston. The more realistic comparisons would be Kevin Stefanski joining a Browns organization that had just fired the one-and-done Freddie Kitchens, or Matt Nagy replacing John Fox with the Bears after Fox averaged four wins in three seasons. Both Stefanski and Nagy led their teams to the playoffs in their first seasons, but they already had high-valued quarterbacks on the roster (Baker Mayfield, Cleveland’s 2018 No. 1 overall pick; Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago’s 2017 No. 2 pick). The Texans would have to draft a firstround quarterback with their upcoming No. 2 overall pick, but the team’s wealth of draft picks and burgeoning free agency budget could make a quick turnaround possible.
*not including McDaniel and LA’s Brandon Staley who are still active
Jonathan Gannon, DeMeco Ryans
First-time coordinator, two years of experience
Examples: Ben McAdoo (Giants, 2016); Todd Haley (Chiefs, 2009); Pat Shurmur (Browns, 2011)
Best-case scenario: Dan Quinn (Falcons, 2015) … Six seasons … 43-42 record (.506) … Super Bowl LI runner-up
Worst-case scenario: Chris Palmer (Browns, 1999) … Two seasons … 5-27 record (.156) … 3-13 in final season Key Stats Occurrences: 7
Avg. tenure: 3 seasons*
Win percentage: .372
Super Bowl appearances: 1
Super Bowl wins: Summary: This collection of hires sought to replace a legend and a consistent coach who set high standards. McAdoo replaced Tom Coughlin, who won two Super Bowls in 12 seasons coaching the Giants. Quinn nearly secured Atlanta’s first Super Bowl title in 2016, two seasons after replacing Mike Smith, who’d led the Falcons to four playoff berths in seven seasons, but never beyond the NFC title game. But the rest — like Haley in Kansas City, Shurmur and Palmer in Cleveland, Steve Spagnuolo in St. Louis — were hired to inspire miserable teams mired in losing ways. None of them succeeded. This scenario most closely translates to the Texans: Houston has fired three coaches in three straight losing seasons. Could Gannon or Ryans become the exception?
* not including Atlanta’s Arthur Smith who is still active
Shane Steichen
Second-time coordinator, three years of experience
Examples: Todd Bowles (Jets, 2015); Adam Gase (Dolphins, 2016); Kevin O’Connell (Vikings, 2022)
Best-case scenario: O’Connell … Finished first season … 13-4 record (.765) … NFC North champions in first year
Worst-case scenario: Gase … Three seasons … 23-25 record (.479) … 7-9 in final season
Key Stats Occurrences: 3
Avg. tenure: 3.5 seasons*
Win percentage: .465
Super Bowl appearances: None
Super Bowl wins: None Summary: All three of the hires were made after each franchise fired their predecessors for failing to break out of mediocrity. The Jets hovered around .500 in Rex Ryan’s final four seasons after initially leading New York to back-to-back AFC title games. The Dolphins were eager to make their first playoff push since 2008, which was also the last season they’d finished with a winning record. The Vikings were patient with Mike Zimmer, who led them to the 2017 NFC title game, but the franchise stalled and finished 7-9 then 8-9 in Zimmer’s final two seasons. All three coaches saw immediate success in their first seasons. Gase and O’Connell’s teams went one-and-done in the playoffs, both losing in their respective wild-card games. Bowles led the Jets to a 10-6 season in his first year, but they missed the playoffs on a tiebreaker to the Steelers. The jury’s still out on O’Connell, but Gase and Bowles couldn’t sustain their momentum. Neither coach saw a playoff berth again, and both were fired within four seasons. While these hires aren’t relatable to the rebuilding Texans, Steichen also interviewed with the Colts. Owner Jim Irsay has made sporadic moves to spur his team from its recent mediocrity.
*not including O’Connell who is still active
Sean Payton
One-time NFL head coach, Super Bowl champion
Examples: Joe Gibbs (Washington, 2004); Mike McCarthy (Cowboys, 2020); Doug Pederson (Jaguars, 2022)
Best-case scenario: McCarthy … Back-to-back playoff berths … 30-20 record (.600) … NFC East champions in third season
Worst-case scenario: Gibbs … Appearances in the divisional round (2005) and wild-card round (2007) … 3034 record (.469) … Retires after two playoff berths in four seasons
Key Stats Occurrences: 3
Avg. tenure: 4 seasons*
Win percentage: .527
Super Bowl appearances: None
Super Bowl wins: None Summary: Washington and Jacksonville both needed to restore credibility after both their efforts to hire national championship-winning college coaches flopped. Urban Meyer’s disastrous one-year tenure with the Jaguars was as dysfunctional a tenure as possible. Pederson, who’d won Super Bowl LII with the Eagles, not only restored order but flipped Jacksonville from being the NFL’s worst team to AFC South champions in one season. Gibbs, who’d won three Super Bowls in his first tenure in Washington, led the franchise to two playoff berths in four seasons, but he retired for a second time at 67. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones grew tired of watching his team fail to reach the NFC title game and fired Jason Garrett for Mike McCarthy, who’d won Super XLV with the Packers. That Jones exercised patience after McCarthy’s Cowboys failed to advance beyond the divisional round for the second straight season is somewhat surprising. The Texans certainly need to restore credibility following years of dysfunction.
*not including McCarthy or Pederson who are still active
Thomas Brown
Assistant coach, no experience as an NFL coordinator
Examples: Dan Campbell (Lions, 2021); David Culley (Texans, 2021); Mike Munchak (Titans, 2011)
Best-case scenario: Andy Reid (Eagles, 1999) … Five NFC title game appearances in 14 seasons … 130-93-1 record (.583) … Super Bowl XXXIX runnerup
Worst-case scenario: Lane Kiffin (Raiders, 2007) … Two last-place finishes in the AFC West … 5-15 record (.250) … Fired four games into second season
Key Stats
Occurrences: 15
Avg. tenure: 3.7 seasons*
Win percentage: .456
Super Bowl appearances: 2
Super Bowl wins: None Summary: There is no category as polarizing as these hires. Every instance is a significant risk. Sometimes, storied franchises take a chance on someone from a distinguished coaching tree. The Eagles pounced early on Reid, who’d been a long-time assistant and won a Super Bowl with former Packers coach Mike Holmgren. The Bengals did the same thing with Zac Taylor, who’d been a quarterbacks coach on Sean McVay’s Rams staff during Super Bowl LII. Sometimes this category wasn’t devoid of play-calling experience. Taylor was interim offensive coordinator for the Dolphins for five games in 2015. Brian Flores called defensive plays on Bill Belichick’s staff in New England before his three-year tenure as Miami’s head coach. The there’s the former NFL players: Campbell, Mike Singletary (49ers), Mike Munchak (Titans), Jim Zorn (Washington), Mike Tice (Vikings), Herm Edwards (Jets). Their playing careers gave them credibility, but only Edwards was truly successful as a head coach — although Campbell’s Lions finished 9-8 in his first season. Brown’s résumé is most comparable to Taylor’s. He’s a member of the McVay coaching tree, played briefly in the NFL and has experience as a play-caller from his time as an assistant at the University of Miami. The Texans would need to be properly convinced of Brown’s credentials two years removed from firing Culley, although the two coaches are too dissimilar to fairly draw parallels.