Projecting the Texans’ top picks in draft

Team’s needs likely lead it to lean heavily into offense in opening round

This year’s NFL combine, which concludes Monday, has produced no shortage of buzz, especially when it comes to quarterbacks.

C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson impressed at their combine performances Saturday, helping raise their already-high draft stock.

The Texans, who have only one quarterback under contract for the 2023 season, were one of the teams watching. They hope to acquire two quarterbacks this offseason, and one more than likely will be taken with the second pick of the draft.

The Bears hold the cards with the first pick and appear poised to trade down. That could have a direct effect on whom the Texans pick, particularly if a quarterback is chosen No. 1.

The Texans have 11 picks in the 2023 draft, including three of the first 33 selections. In the spirit of the mock draft, here’s a projection on who they take in the first two rounds.

First round (No. 2): Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud

A lot of people ask me if I envision a scenario in which the Texans don’t take a quarterback with the second pick. I don’t. The only way that happens is if someone makes a deal with Chicago and hacks the Texans by depriving them of a QB they deem a clear-cut choice above all others.

The Texans know how important it is to get the quarterback position fixed. They know that Davis Mills is not the long-term answer.

And I think there’s enough talent in this draft class that they can find their future franchise quarterback even another team gets one first.

Stroud fits the bill. If the Bears were to keep the pick and go with a defensive player No. 1 overall, then I would have the Texans choosing Bryce Young. He’s considered by most to be “QB1” in this draft, and the Texans like him.

But I predict the Bears will trade with the Colts,

who also like Young and will take him, leaving the Texans with Stroud.

Stroud, who is listed at 6-3, 218 pounds, threw bombs at the combine. And his passes were on the money. He’s easily the second-best quarterback, at worst, in this draft.

I considered Richardson because he also elevated his draft stock with his sub-4.5 40-yard dash, 40-inch vertical jump and downfield passes. One AFC scout told me Richardson’s upside is through the roof and if he were a gambler, he’d consider taking Richardson at No. 2 based on his potential and physical traits. He’s drawn comparisons to Cam Newton.

But Richardson is still raw and might need to sit on the bench for at least a year before coming in. Playing a mere 22 games at Florida, he completed just 53.8 percent of his passes while throwing for 2,549 yards, 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions.

Stroud is the safer pick here and appears ready to start on day one. In two full seasons at Ohio State, capped by this year’s College Football Playoff appearance, he threw 85 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions.

First round (No. 15 via a trade that also lands the No. 116 pick in the fourth round from Green Bay, which acquires the No. 12 overall pick): Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Last year, the Texans traded back from No. 13 to No. 15 to get guard Kenyon Green. I think they do something similar so they can get better value for the player they want. They’d also be able to acquire more assets so they can move up on day two of the draft.

Others around the league believe the Texans’ top three priorities are to find a quarterback, a wide receiver and a defensive end or defensive tackle.

I agree.

But for the players they’d ideally want, No. 12 seems a bit high. I went between choosing a wide receiver and a defensive end.

For me, it came down to Iowa defensive end Luka Van Ness, USC WR Jordan Addison and Smith-Njigba. I didn’t consider TCU’s Quentin Johnston because I figure Green Bay will pick him after trading up with the Texans.

I went with SmithNjigba, given his familiarity with Stroud, his Ohio State teammate.

Smith-Njigba didn’t play much during the 2022 season because of a hamstring injury. But his combine performance was impressive. His route running was good, and he didn’t look hampered by the hamstring.

Get this stat: During the 2021 season, SmithNjigba played with both Chris Olave and 2022 NFL offensive rookie of the year Garrett Wilson. Smith-Njigba had more catches (95) and more receiving yards (1,606) than both. He’s a talented player.

Second round (No. 33): Georgia Tech DE/OLB Keion White

Some draft experts have White, an edge rusher, going in the first round. But by the slim chance he’s still around when the Texans pick in the second round, they should get him.

New Texans coach DeMeco Ryans has said success starts with the offensive and defensive lines, and those will be a priority for him. The Texans were the NFL’s worst team at stopping the run this past season.

“Everything starts up front,” Ryans said. “It’s definitely a priority to address the defensive line and the offensive line. I think on both sides, the teams that are successful — you see Philly; you see (Kansas City) — their fronts are outstanding.”

With two defensive ends on the final years of their deals, including Jerry Hughes, who will be 35 at the start of next season, it would make sense that the Texans would address that position.

White, who is 6-5, 286 pounds, had 7½ sacks during his senior season at Georgia Tech. He was dominant at the Senior Bowl and is considered one of the top edge rushers in this draft class.

He also has the size to possibly play some inside.

Michael Conroy/Associated Press Wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba would be a sensible fit if the Texans wind up taking fellow Ohio State Buckeye C.J. Stroud with their No. 2 pick.

Michael Conroy/Associated Press Georgia Tech’s Keion White would provide needed depth and youth along the Texans’ defensive line. The Texans had the league’s worst run defense in 2022.