Cost of moving up one spot to No. 1 might be too rich for Caserio’s blood
One of the bigger topics at the NFL combine last week was what the Bears will do with the No. 1 pick in the draft.
Chicago general manager Ryan Poles expressed his faith in quarterback Justin Fields and indicated that trading down with a QB-needy team is a likely scenario.
The Texans, who have the second pick in the draft thanks to their Week 18 win over Indianapolis, are one of several teams seeking a quarterback.
So could Houston become a potential trade partner with Chicago?
“We’ll look at all of that,” Texans general manager Nick Caserio said at the combine. “We actually have a trade chart simulator, where you factor in the points and the costs associated with it.
“I would say it’s twofold. Some teams have an analytically driven chart — here’s what that summation of the numbers is — and then you have the Jimmy (Johnson) chart. I think most teams are still using the traditional Jimmy chart as a reference point, but each team has its own sort of model.”
The “Jimmy chart,” created by former Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson, assigns numerical value to each pick in the draft to balance out trades.
For example, the Bears’ No. 1 overall pick is given 3,000 points, the Texans’ No. 2 pick is given 2,600 points, the No. 3 pick is given 2,200 points, the 100th pick is given 100 points and so on.
The Texans won’t be the only team that explores the possibility of trading up. The Indianapolis Colts at No. 4, the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 7, the Atlanta Falcons at No. 8 and the Carolina Panthers at No. 9 all need quarterbacks.
The Seahawks at No. 5 and the Lions at No. 6 could also draft a quarterback, though their need isn’t as pressing. Because there are so many teams that could draft a QB, the demand for that No. 1 pick will increase as teams get nervous about missing out.
The buzz around the combine was that the Colts and Panthers have the most interest in trading up.
One thing to remember: The Bears are going to want the greatest compensation they can get while still being able to draft a top player. So teams wanting to trade with them will be vying to provide the most draft capital.
If potential trade partners used the Jimmy chart as a model, the Bears could stand to get more draft compensation by trading with a team moving up three spots (in this case, the Colts) than a team moving up only one spot (the Texans).
Say the Texans want to trade from No. 2 to No. 1. A balanced trade, according to the Jimmy chart, would include the Texans giving up either their secondround pick (No. 33 overall, worth 560 points) or their two third-round picks (No. 65 and No. 73, worth 260 and 220 points, respectively) along with the No. 2 pick.
Compare that to what Chicago could get from Indianapolis. A balanced return from the Colts would include their entire 2023 draft haul and more: the No. 4 overall pick, their second-round pick (No. 35), their thirdround pick (No. 78), plus their fourth, two fifths and two sevenths. The value of all eight of their picks (2,694 points) doesn’t equate to what the Bears would be giving up to move down, according to the chart.
It’s not unprecedented for a team to trade all its picks to move up. With coach Mike Ditka coveting running back Ricky Williams, the Saints in 1999 traded all of their picks and two of the first three picks in the 2000 draft for Washington’s fifth overall pick, then selected Texas’ Heisman Trophy-winning running back.
Indianapolis might not be willing to trade all of its picks, but the Bears might very well want a future first-round pick or two as additional compensation. The same might apply to a deal with the Raiders or Panthers.
Poles, the Bears’ GM, told NBC’s Peter King that he thinks he could potentially get a 2024 first-round pick and a 2025 first-round pick in a major package. This presents an interesting situation for the Texans, who have two first-round picks in the 2024 draft because of the Deshaun Watson trade.
Based on Caserio’s comments, however, he doesn’t sound like a general manager willing to overpay to move up just one spot. Though the Texans have a lot of draft capital (11 picks) and will investigate what it would cost to move up, the cost of future first-rounders might be too much, particularly when standing pat still guarantees Houston the availability of either Alabama quarterback Bryce Young or Ohio State quarterback, C.J. Stroud, if not both.
“We’re not necessarily worried about what other teams around us are doing,” Caserio said. “You’re cognizant of that, but ultimately, you have to be prepared to pick wherever you’re going to pick. Then, be prepared to pick whatever player.
“I’d say most teams — wherever they pick — you probably have three or four guys that you would feel comfortable taking. If a team is in front of you and you’re only talking about one player, then it’s going to leave two to three other players.
“So you’re either comfortable with that group of players or you’re not.”
The fact they pick second and fourth, respectively, potentially gives the Texans and Colts one advantage over other suitors if the Bears are intent on landing either Alabama’s Will Anderson or Georgia’s Jalen Carter. Presuming at least two quarterbacks are taken with the draft’s first three picks after Chicago makes a trade, the Bears would be assured of getting one of those defensive lineman only if they have one of the top four picks.
A team has never traded the No. 1 overall pick for the No. 2 pick. The closest that came to happening was in 1975, when the Falcons traded the No. 3 pick and offensive tackle George Kunz to the Baltimore Colts for the No. 1 pick and chose quarterback Steve Bartkowski. At the time, Kunz was a two-time first-team AllPro.
Bartkowski, who played 10 seasons with the Falcons, became a twotime Pro Bowler and led the NFL in passing touchdowns in 1980.
“I think that’s more of an exercise for when we get into April,” Caserio said when asked what it would take to move up. “We’re positioned here. What would it cost to move up one spot? We’re (also) at 12. What would it cost to move up a few spots? What would it cost to move back? We’ll look at all those.”