How will next week’s freeze compare to deadly cold of 2021?
By now, you’ve read our headlines, and you know that an arctic outbreak will be moving into Texas early next week. If that brings back memories of the weeklong February 2021 Texas freeze, you’re not alone. A series of freezing rain and ice storms, coupled with snowfall as far south as Houston, knocked out power for millions nearly three years ago and was blamed for the deaths of hundreds of Texans.
That winter event left many in Texas with a degree of posttraumatic stress disorder about all freezing weather since then, but to help put minds at ease about next week, let’s start with some weather science. The upcoming Texas deep freeze is going to be extremely cold, but we have no reason to believe that it’s going to be a repeat of three years ago. Let’s compare that previous event to what is in the forecast for early next week.
Will it be quite as cold?
While next week’s arctic blast will bring the coldest air Texas has gotten so far this winter, it does not appear that it will be quite as cold as the 2021 winter outbreak.
Houston’s lowest temperature in 2021 was 13 degrees. By Tuesday of next week, the forecast low is about 10 degrees warmer, in the low to mid-20s.
It’s a similar story across much of the state. In San Antonio, the coldest temperature reached in 2021 was 9 degrees. It was only the ninth time in recorded history that temps had reached the single digits in the Alamo City. This time around, the coldest projected temperature is 18 degrees, which is expected Tuesday.
Out in West Texas, Midland-Odessa fell all the way to 2 degrees below zero back in 2021. Next week, they’ll bottom out near 12 degrees.
How long will cold last?
The February 2021 freeze was likely so memorable because temps stayed below freezing for record-setting long periods. This time around, temperatures are not expected to stay below freezing for nearly as long. Houston’s low temperatures will fall below freezing for a few days in a row, but afternoon highs are expected to stay above the freezing mark each day.
In 2021, San Antonio stayed below freezing for 107 straight hours from Feb. 12-17. That was the city’s second-longest freeze of all time. However, early next week, temperatures will be freezing for a maximum of 36 straight hours. It could be even less than that, depending on whether afternoon highs climb above freezing Monday, which will be a close call. Either way, highs are expected to rise to near 40 degrees by Tuesday.
Farther north, Dallas will have a more extended freeze, but the icy temps won’t persist as long as they did in 2021. Still, temperatures in the Dallas-Fort
Worth area, which could drop below freezing early Sunday, won’t rise above freezing until Tuesday or even Wednesday. Overall, DFW will likely be below freezing for 50 to 84 hours.
What about ice and snow?
In 2021, snow blanketed much of the state, making road travel extremely hazardous. San Antonio and Austin both recorded more than 6 inches of snow. Many other cities, including Dallas and Midland-Odessa, recorded more than 5 inches. Amarillo got more than a foot of snow, and even Houston recorded an inch.
Next week, Texas weather is not expected to bring anything close to the same challenges from wintry precipitation. Instead, much of the state will likely stay dry.
However, some spots in Northeast Texas will have the potential to see a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. The best chances for ice and snow will be in an area stretching from Dallas north to Sherman and Denison and east toward Texarkana. Even in these places, precipitation is expected to be light.
Farther south, it is still possible for a bit of freezing rain or sleet to come toward Houston, Austin and San Antonio by early Monday. However, the odds of significant wintry precipitation are low at this time.
If that changes, you’ll be the first to know with continued coverage at houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-weather.