HOW THEY MATCH UP
WHEN HOUSTON HAS THE BALL
The Texans’ passing game ranks seventh in the NFL. Houston averages 245.5 yards per game and 7.05 yards per passing play.
The Texans’ run game has sputtered all year, tied for 22nd in rushing yards per game (96.9) and 29th in rushing yards per play (3.71), so the offensive burden will be on rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud and receiver Nico Collins.
Stroud ranks 14th among all quarterbacks with an overall grade of 82.8, according to Pro Football Focus. He ranks sixth among AFC quarterbacks, behind Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes.
Stroud is one of three quarterbacks to lead the NFL in passing yards per game (273.9) and touchdown-to-interception ratio (4.6: 23 TDs to five INTs) in a single season. The other two are Tom Brady and Joe Montana. Stroud’s 4,108 passing yards are the third-most for any rookie.
Collins, meanwhile, ranks fifth among all receivers with a grade of 91.0, and second among AFC receivers behind Tyreek Hill.
Collins is the third receiver in Texans history to reach 1,200 receiving yards in a season, joining Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins. Coming off a career-best 195-yard game in last week’s win against the Colts, he has eight games with 80 or more receiving yards this year. Collins has 1,297 yards and eight touchdowns on 109 catches.
Tight end Dalton Schultz has made big-time catches in desperate moments this season. Receiver Noah Brown, injured of late but hopeful to play Saturday, has shown flashes of brilliance with three games of 82 or more yards, and Robert Woods is a veteran possession receiver who has a Super Bowl ring. Houston’s offensive ceiling rises considerably if it can get anything from running back Devin Singletary, whose longest run this season was 24 yards and who has just three runs of 21 yards or more. The Texans are 4-0 when Singletary rushes for 80 or more yards, and 3-1 in games that he scores a touchdown.
The CliffsNotes version: The Texans pass on 62.2 percent of their offensive snaps.
The catch? The Browns have the NFL’s best pass defense, allowing 164.7 yards per game. Cleveland’s 5.23 passing yards allowed per play rank second and its 18 interceptions are tied for second in the NFL. Cleveland’s success in the secondary is predicated largely on a relentless pass rush. The Browns’ 60 sacks rank sixth and they are also sixth in sacks per pass attempt at a 9.16% clip.
The Texans’ offense ranks 19th in third-down conversion rate (37.9%), and that doesn’t bode too well for Saturday. The Browns are the best defensively on third down, holding opponents to a 29.1% conversion rate.
WHEN CLEVELAND HAS THE BALL
The Browns are similar to the Texans in that they are pass-heavy, throwing on 59.8 percent of their offensive plays. But they are different in that their strength is actually the run game.
Cleveland averages 217.2 passing yards per game, ranking 19th in the NFL, and averages 118.6 rushing yards per game, ranking 12th.
Quarterback Joe Flacco has been arguably the feel-good story of the NFL. The veteran and Super Bowl champ has revitalized his career, throwing for 1,616 yards and 13 touchdowns to five interceptions in five games since being signed by Cleveland on Dec. 2. The Browns are 4-1 in those five games.
The 38-year-old Flacco lit up the Texans on Christmas Eve for 368 yards and three TDs to two INTs. That buoyed a career night for receiver Amari Cooper, who has 1,250 yards and five TDs this season, 265 of those yards and two of those scores coming against the Texans three weeks ago.
Tight end David Njoku has 882 yards and six TDs. He is particularly dangerous turning checkdowns or screens into explosive plays because of his penchant for yards after the catch.
Running backs Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt have combined for 1,224 yards and 13 touchdowns. Neither averages more than four yards per carry.
The Texans’ 234.1 passing yards allowed per game rank 23rd. Their 7.04 yards per passing play allowed rank 27th.
WHEN THEY KICK
The Texans rank first in the NFL on 26.7 yards per return. They are 13th in punt-return average at 9.7. Houston is a top-10 defensive unit on special teams, allowing 6.6 yards per punt return (fourth) and 21.9 yards per kick return (10th).
Ka’imi Fairbairn is 27-for-28 on field goals, including 5-for-6 on field goal attempts 50 yards or more. Punter Cam Johnston averages 47.7 yards per punt with three touchbacks and 30 punts inside the 20. The Browns rank in the bottom half of the NFL in punt return average (8.4, 18th) and in the top half in kick return average (23.7, 12th).
Defensively, Cleveland allows 10 yards per punt return (10th) and only 21.2 per kick return (8th). Browns kicker Dustin Hopkins was ruled out of Saturday’s game with a hamstring injury.
Riley Patterson made his only field-goal attempt last week against the Bengals, connecting from 33 yards. Before signing with Cleveland, he went 15-for-17 on field goals with the Lions this season.
Jack Fox averages 46.4 yards per punt with five touchbacks and 26 punts inside the 20.