Wildfire season is just around the corner

Before winter has even ended, parts of Texas this week were already facing an elevated threat of rapidly spreading wildfires. A red flag warning was in effect Thursday for some counties along the Rio Grande, and urban counties along the Interstate 35 corridor also faced near-critical fire danger Thursday, according to the National Weather Service.

A rain-free cold front that has swept across Texas was pulling dry air and high, gusty winds behind it — two ingredients that could allow any small outdoor fires to quickly grow out of hand.

Burn bans are in place for 60 of the state’s 254 counties as an estimated 4.4 million Texans live in drought-stricken areas. It may seem hard to believe, even after Houston recorded its wettest January since the late 1800s this year, but the spring wildfire season for Texas is around the corner.

Where in Texas is drought worst?

According to the National Drought Mitigation Center’s release of data from the U.S. Drought Monitor on Thursday, areas of West Texas and the Hill Country remain in extreme drought, which is the secondworst level of dryness on the U.S. Drought Monitor’s scale.

While Houston’s Harris County and the rest of Southeast Texas is drought-free, counties in South and Central Texas remain in severe or extreme drought, including Blanco,

Kendall, Kerr and Bandera counties — all of which face near-critical fire danger Thursday, according to the weather service.

When does wildfire activity peak in Texas?

Wildfires are a year-round danger in Texas, but one season in particular has produced 90% of the state’s 30 largest wildfires since 1988, according to the Texas A&M Forest Service. This intense period of activity between January and May is influenced by factors such as the previous year’s growing season, drought conditions and seasonal patterns of rainfall and temperatures.

Wildfire conditions are most favorable in areas where grasses grew vigorously last year.

Above-normal rainfall in 2023 between May and June in the Texas Panhandle and South Texas led to abundant growth of herbaceous fuel, like shrubs and grasses, making those areas more prone to wildfires.

In other areas of the state, such as Hill Country and in West Texas, persistent drought during the 2023 growing season led to stunted vegetative growth. With less grass and other wildfire fuels, the spring wildfire season is expected to produce below-normal activity there.

Spring season is driven by wind

The biggest difference between the spring wildfire season and peak wildfire activity in August and September is wind. As the transition from winter to summer quickens, springtime weather systems often include gusty winds. Strong spring winds can quickly result in wildfires growing at a rapid pace, forcing officials to put all energy into fighting increasingly dangerous fire conditions.