CAN DISEASE DESTROY AN EMPIRE?

Historian Kyle Harper is confident he knows the reasons the Roman Empire collapsed: climate change and three pandemics. It was an irony of history, because only a few centuries earlier a moist temperate climate had helped elevate Rome to its position as an unrivaled military power by making farming possible at higher elevations and turning North Africa into “the empire’s breadbasket.” During the reign of Emperor Trajan (98–117 BC), the Roman Empire stretched from Scotland to the Caspian Sea and was slightly bigger than half of the United States today. A conservative estimate is that 65 million people—about 20% of the world’s population—were under Roman rule at the time. In their hubris, Trajan’s supporters believed the Roman Empire would endure forever. But then the climate began to cool, lowering agricultural productivity and decreasing Roman wealth. This new colder climate (sometimes called the Little Ice Age) led to failing harvests, and Emperor Justinian sought to shore up the empire’s stores by importing grain, which introduced a devastating pathogen. Three major pandemics ravaged Rome between

165 and 549, making it harder for the empire to defend itself against invaders such as Germanic tribes and Huns.

What can the United States learn from the Roman experience? Professor Jäger says: “The Covid pandemic is America’s worst health crisis in 100 years. Well over 700,000 people died and the official number of infections is around 40 million, though the real figure is probably far higher.” If Rome could be brought down by climate change and pandemics, could the same thing happen to America?

INVISIBLE ENEMY Three pandemics sealed the fate of Rome—the Antonine, Cyprian, and Justinianic plagues. First reported in Egypt in AD 541, the Justinianic plague spread quickly throughout the Mediterranean and killed an estimated 20 to 40% of the total population in the imperial capital of Constantinople.