Next two weeks have major playoff implications

Editor’s note: This column is part of a continuing series examining how the current CIF playoff seeding system came to be and how that formula is applied to athletic programs in Imperial Valley.

With the CIF-San Diego Section football committee’s 2019 playoff seeding meeting scheduled for Nov. 2, it is time to move from our look at the mechanics of CIF’s power-ranking system to the reality of its potential application.

The Valley’s marquee power-ranking matchup this week is also the 2019 Manzanita League championship game as Division V’s first-ranked Vincent Memorial Catholic (5.17) travels to third-ranked Holtville (1.23).

Interestingly, while differences between Freeman rankings, which take into account margin of victory, and CIF’s, which do not, have been common, for the past two weeks, both systems have put these teams in the same positions.

For Vincent, a victory should cement the top seed in the playoffs, including a first-round bye and home field until the CIF D-V championship game, putting them in position to play for a CIF-SDS and a State CIF title games as they did in 2017.

Meanwhile, a Holtville victory might not move the Vikings up over current second-ranked Castle Park (5.15). More likely, it would move Castle Park ahead of Vincent. Likewise, a Viking loss might not result in their switching places with fourthranked Mission Bay (minus-1.18).

These prognostications are based on Castle Park and Mission Bay winning, and any rankings movement could be influenced by the teams’ schedule strength. However, as we have established, no one is privy to the Freeman formula, so how much strength-ofschedule actually affects rankings is at best an educated guess.

While no other Valley game this weekend comes close to the magnitude of Vincent vs. Holtville, other games loom important because of their potential impact on where teams will eventually be seeded.

For example, in D-III, all three Imperial Valley League games could affect seeding positions for fifth-ranked Central (2.87), sixth-ranked Brawley (2.75) and 11th-ranked Imperial (minus-2.44).

Central’s 38-7 win over Imperial Friday night, which greatly exceeded Freeman’s prediction of a 28-21 score, saw the Spartans, while remaining fifth ranked, register their largest rankings gain of the season on Calpreps from 5.3 to 8.7.

Both Brawley and Central, who play D-IV’s 15th-ranked Calexico Bulldogs and D-V’s sixth-ranked Palo Verde Yellowjackets, respectively, face mustwin games to insure they at least hold their current positions.

Imperial, on the other hand, finds itself in a precarious position as the Tigers fell from minus-1.2 to minus-3.7 at Calpreps, and for the first time this season, Calpreps has them rated outside the top 12 at 13.

Regardless of whether the Tigers, currently ranked 11th in CIF, fall out of the magical top 12 when the new CIF’s ranking come out tomorrow, their season-ending home games against 16th-ranked Southwest (minus-9.4) and Palo Verde are must-win contests.