Baja gold is dirt
Everyday I walk my dogs, we walk on “Gold.” This is a new definition of “gold,” it isn’t the traditional definition. In 1848, it was the California Gold Rush. In 2023, it’s land between Tijuana, Rosarito and Ensenada. Land on the ocean or on hills with an ocean view.
The world’s longest peninsula – Baja California – stretches 775 miles from the San Diego/Mexico border south to Cabo San Lucas then turns east and north for 775 more miles to the Colorado River estuary. The Sea of Cortez AKA Gulf of California is on the east and the huge Pacific on the west.
The peninsula is split into two Mexican states, Baja California Norte (population 4 million) and Baja California del Sur (800,000). Mexico has 126 million people, making it the 10th largest country.
Mountains split the state in two; they range from sea level desert on the east to the snow-covered 11,000 feet high San Pedro Mártir Mountains overlooking the Pacific Ocean on the west.
There’s gold in those mountains – for real. A huge gold producing mine is on the Gulf side. But the real “gold” is not from the ground, the real gold is on the surface. Specifically, ocean view/oceanfront buildable land; of which there are 1500 miles of to consider.
This is not guesswork, we have data. That, thanks to Tijuana’s enterprising real estate professional, Luis Bustamante. He organized a “Statistics Day” and invited real estate professionals, government officials, and bankers to a working lunch. All were given forms to plug-in numbers; from those numbers Bustamante did the math and “VOILA!” The Gold of Baja was defined and calculated.
Sales in 2022 of Single Family Residences (SFRs), condominiums and undeveloped land for 2022 on the coastal strip of Tijuana, Rosarito Beach and Ensenada was calculated. Total? An astounding $390 million dollars; U.S. dollars, not pesos.
Developers accounted for selling 253 SFRs, with average sales of $245,125 totaling: $62 million dollars. They also sold 486 condominiums with an average sale of $275,692 totaling: $133 million dollars.
Licensed agents sold 163 SFRs with an average selling price of $287,829 totaling $47 million dollars. They sold 105 condominiums for an average price of $282,731 – $29 million dollars.
Land sales accounted for the balance of the $390 million in sales.
Who were the buyers? 90% of them – Americans. Most – 77.4% – from California, 16.1% from Tijuana and 6.5% from other Mexican regions. Live-in buyers were 35.5% of the buyers, 22.6% to rent out (investment), 38.7% bought them as second homes and 3.2% to build on empty lots. That is for 2022.
The future? Currently on file in various governmental offices are these permits for 2023: 864 construction permits for Single Family Residences with a permit average of $280,000, totaling $241 million; 1149 permits are filed for condos with an average projected sales price of $280,000, totaling $321 million dollars; 1586 lots to be subdivided – with an average price of $100,000 – totaling $158 million dollars. Overall 2023 total – $722 million dollars.
If all these dollars were added up for 2022 and 2023, coastal Baja sales would crack the one billion dollars mark this Christmas. That is the definition of “gold.”
Baja California “Gold.” Yes, not everything happening in Baja California is great, nor is it in the rest of Mexico, or Chicago for that matter.
The Matamoros kidnapping certainly dominated the news. The Washington Post claims 550 Americans are missing in Mexico.
Be on notice, however. Millions of tourist-Americans visit Mexico; 1.5 million people cross the Mexican border everyday. Hundreds of thousands of Americans live and/or work in Mexico. More than a million Americans seek medical care in Mexico, and save 40% to 60% of what the same treatment costs in the U.S. Medical tourism!
Many Californians between 45 and 55 years of age are heading south to buy beachfront homes they can’t even imagine buying in California. In the Tijuana-Rosarito-Ensenada corridor they can buy a three bedroom highrise condo on a sandy Pacific Ocean beach for a fraction of what one would cost, say, in Florida.
And no bugs, mosquitos or alligators.