WHAT A DEAL!
Dodgers’ Scherzer-Turner trade already ranks among the best ever
On the morning of July 31, the Dodgers and Padres awoke to a spitting-distance gap in the standings. The Dodgers were three games behind the San Francisco Giants for first place in the National League West, the Padres were 5 1/2 back. Neither team could know the Dodgers had just completed the most important trade of the season — if not the most consequential midseason trade in baseball history.
There are other contenders for that title. We’ll get to those shortly. First, consider the circumstances that made this particular trade special.
On the afternoon of July 29, a national reporter tweeted that the Padres were close to acquiring AllStar pitcher Max Scherzer from the
Washington Nationals. Scherzer was skeptical. He had not heard anything of the sort from Mike Rizzo, the Nationals’ general manager. Neither had Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers’ president of baseball operations. The false report “definitely spooked me,” Friedman would say later. “My heart skipped a beat.”
When Scherzer and All-Star shortstop Trea Turner were traded to the Dodgers later that day, the double-edged consequence was obvious. The Dodgers had not merely acquired two impact players; they had prevented a division rival from acquiring the same pair. What followed were a pair of equal and opposite reactions.
Scherzer — 6-0 with a 0.88 earned-run average in eight starts since the trade — became the top-of-the-rotation starter the Dodgers lacked since Trevor Bauer was placed on administrative leave July 2. Turner became the impact leadoff hitter that Mookie Betts was in 2020, when he finished second in National League MVP voting. When Betts ultimately rebounded from his nagging hip injury, he moved back to the top of the lineup. Turner then offered the middle-of-the-order presence Cody Bellinger failed to provide from Day 1.
San Diego’s formidable roster was springing leaks, too. Soon the Padres would be forced to hand the ball every fifth game to Jake Arrieta, who was 5-11 with a 6.88 ERA before he was released by the Chicago Cubs. (He’s 0-2 with an 8.25 ERA in three starts since.) They moved star shortstop Fernando Tatís Jr. to the outfield for a time to preserve his ailing left shoulder and watched Adam Frazier (.231 with zero home runs in 40 games through Tuesday) flounder at the plate as their everyday second baseman. Scherzer and Turner could have played those roles with gusto.
The standings tell a similar story. On July 30, the Dodgers were 62-40, a .590 winning percentage. Since then, they have gone 31-10 entering Wednesday’s game against the Arizona Diamondbacks, a .756 winning percentage.
On July 30, the Padres were 60-46 (.566). Since then, they have gone 14-24 (.368) entering Wednesday’s game against the San Francisco Giants. They’ve lost an unimaginable 18 games in the NL West standings since July 1.
More than two weeks remain in the regular season. For some, judging the impact of the Scherzer/Turner trade will begin and end with the postseason. For everyone else, it’s not too soon to marvel at the impact the trade
The Dodgers’ acquisition of Max Scherzer, above, was a gamechanger for the 2021season.
has already made. If it holds, the Dodgers’ gain in winning percentage (.166) since July 30 will rank among the best by any contender in recent memory.
Dodger fans have been quick to recall a pair of blockbuster trades.
In 2012, Adrian Gonzalez,
Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford and Nick Punto arrived in an August trade with the Boston Red Sox for James Loney and a package of prospects. The trade helped rally a beleaguered fan base, but it did not lift the Dodgers immediately into the postseason. They were 69-58 (.543) on the day of the trade and went 17-18 (.486) afterward. That was the last time the Dodgers missed the playoffs.
In 2009, the Dodgers acquired Manny Ramirez from the Red Sox, and he hit well enough over his final 53 games to finish fourth in NL MVP voting. The Dodgers were 54-54 on July 31, an even .500, and 30-24 (.556) afterward.
That little boost made all the difference in winning a relatively weak NL West by two games over the Arizona Diamondbacks; the Dodgers then swept the Cubs in a three-game Division Series before falling in the NLCS.
Here’s a short list of the other contenders for baseball’s most consequential midseason trades:
1. The Detroit Tigers trade Justin Verlander and Juan Ramirez to the Houston Astros for Daz Cameron, Franklin Perez and Jake Rogers on Aug. 31, 2017. At 34, Verlander was beginning to look his age before the trade to a contending Astros team rejuvenated his career. He went
5-0 with a 1.06 ERA in September, then won four more games in October (plus the ALCS MVP award) en route to a championship. Difference in winning percentage pre/post-trade: .122
2. The Tigers trade Yoenis Cespedes to the New York Mets for Michael Fulmer and Luis Cessa on July 31, 2015. Cespedes picked up a few MVP votes after hitting 17 homers in 57 games following the trade, which vaulted the Mets to an NL East title — and ultimately the World Series. Difference in winning percentage pre/post-trade: .112
3. The Colorado Rockies trade Marco Scutaro to the Giants for Charlie Culberson on July 27, 2012. Scutaro, an unheralded utility player, batted .361 over the final 61 games of the season, won the NLCS MVP award and helped the Giants sweep the Tigers in the World Series. Difference in winning percentage pre/ post-trade: .063
4. The Cleveland Indians trade C.C. Sabathia to the Milwaukee Brewers for Michael Brantley, Rob Bryson, Zach Jackson and Matt LaPorta on July 7, 2008. Milwaukee was looking to end a 26-year playoff drought when it acquired Sabathia in his prime. The big lefty went 11-2 with a
1.65 ERA — all the difference as the Brewers edged the Mets by one game for the wild card. Difference in winning percentage pre/post-trade: .009
5. The Astros acquire Carlos Beltran from the Kansas City Royals in a three-team trade on June 24, 2004. Houston had to leapfrog four teams just to clinch a wild card berth following the trade. Beltran made a massive difference in the regular season (23 homers, 53 RBIs in 90 games) and the postseason (eight home runs in 12 games) as the Astros reached the NLCS. Difference in winning percentage pre/ post-trade: .072
6. The Seattle Mariners trade Randy Johnson to the Houston Astros for Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen and John Halama on July 31, 1998. Houston already occupied first place in the NL Central when it traded for the future Hall of Famer, but its rotation lacked a clear Game 1 starter. Johnson went 10-1 with a 1.28 ERA down the stretch — only to lose twice in a four-game NLDS loss to the Padres. Difference in winning percentage pre/ post-trade: .102
7. The Padres trade Fred McGriff to the Atlanta Braves for Vince Moore, Donnie Elliott and Melvin Nieves on July 18, 1993: Atlanta was eight games behind first-place San Francisco in the NL West the day of the trade. Catalyzed by McGriff, their only midseason acquisition, the Braves went 51-18 down the stretch to chop down the division title. Difference in winning percentage pre/post-trade: .169.
8. The Braves trade Doyle Alexander to the Tigers for John Smoltz on Aug. 12, 1987: Alexander went 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA for Detroit, which made up a 1 1/2-game deficit to win the AL East following the trade, only to lose to Minnesota in the ALCS. Smoltz, then a prospect, went on to have a Hall of Fame career. Difference in winning percentage pre/post-trade: .061
Honorable mention: The Indians trade Rick Sutcliffe, Ron Hassey and George Frazier to the Cubs for Joe Carter, Mel
Hall and Don Schulze on June
13, 1984; the Indians trade David Justice to the New York Yankees for Zach Day, Ricky Ledee and Jake Westbrook on June 29, 2000; the Oakland A’s trade Matt Holliday to the St. Louis Cardinals for Brett Wallace, Shane Peterson and Clayton Mortensen on July 24, 2009.