Pros, cons to trading back in NFL draft
The broad strokes of this discussion are obvious.
Why should the Tennessee Titans hold onto the No. 7 pick in the 2024 NFL draft? Because chances are they’re going to draft a really good player there.
Why should the Tennessee Titans trade back from No. 7? Because having more draft picks is almost always a good thing.
None of this is new information. Anyone who’s ever so much as passively thought about an NFL draft understands this. So, yes, the short answer to why The Tennessean has the Titans trading back in Tuesday’s mock draft is the Titans have a lot of holes, and it’s easier to address them all with more draft picks.
That’s a fine explanation. But let’s go a little bit deeper today. Instead of just saying “more draft picks equals good,” let’s try to get into the nitty gritty of why specifically this Titans team should (and shouldn’t) consider moving back from No. 7 on April 25.
What are Tennessee Titans’ NFL draft needs?
As of Wednesday, the Titans’ definite needs are a starting left tackle, defensive end, cornerback and safety. Speaking a little more broadly, the Titans need depth across the defensive line and secondary, have question marks at inside linebacker, could consider adding another receiver, have to make decisions about if their young tight ends are longterm answers and must figure out how to fill three offensive line spots with draft picks, free agents or players on the roster.
The Titans have eight draft picks to do all this, but six of them are on Day 3. So, consider this: From 2005-14, 61% of first-round picks went on to start five or more years in the NFL. That percentage falls to 30% for Day 2 picks and drops dramatically to 8% for Day 3 selections.
Let’s say the Titans want to come out of this draft finding four or more starters. With the picks they currently have, the Titans own a 1.9% probability of achieving that goal. Add one extra Day 2 pick and that probability becomes 4.8%. Add two extra Day 2 picks and the probability rises to 9.6%.
Put another way, trading back in the first round and getting two extra Day 2 picks changes the Titans’ odds of finding four solid starters from 1 in 50 to 1 in 10.
Are the Tennessee Titans specific NFL draft goals practical?
Let’s consider a top-tier scenario for trading back wherein the Titans end up with a first-round pick, two secondround picks and a third-round pick. Based on the Titans’ hierarchy of needs, that means they’d be able to draft a tackle in Round 1, a cornerback and a pass rusher in Round 2 and a safety, linebacker or pass catcher in Round 3.
Using the consensus big board (a tool that combines more than 1,800 prospect rankings into one draft board) as our guide, this feels varying degrees of plausible. Seven of the top 32 prospects are tackles, four pass rushers and four cornerbacks are ranked in spots 32-64 and there are six receivers/tight ends, one linebacker and five safeties ranked between 64-100.
Based on USA TODAY’s team-byteam draft needs list, the positions the Titans would have the most competition trying to pick in those rounds would be tackle in Round 1, cornerback in Round 2 and safety in Round 3.
Draft Position OT Biggest Need
CB 2nd Biggest Need EDGE 2nd Biggest Need WR/TE 3rd Biggest Need
S 3rd Biggest Need LB 3rd Biggest Need
7 teams
Does drafting a superstar trump a great class top-to-bottom?
This is the big question. Just how important is it to draft a “great” player?
Here’s one way to look at things: Dating back to 2000, there are 29 top-10 picks who’ve accumulated an approximate value (a metric like WAR in baseball) of 100 or more. Only five (Terrell Suggs, Eli Manning, Richard Seymour, Von Miller, Patrick Mahomes) won Super Bowls with the teams they began their careers with.
But, by that same standard, six of the 10 best draft classes since 2006 (per Pro Football Focus) didn’t include a single player who won a Super Bowl with their draft team.
It’s obviously better to have great players. And it’s obviously better to secure great draft classes. But if the very narrow question at hand is “will drafting a star player at No. 7 make the Titans more likely to win a Super Bowl than adding a lot of quality starters later,” the answer is no, not really.
So, should the Titans trade back?
This obviously depends on the haul and how far they’re moving back. If the Titans can get multiple Day 2 picks while remaining in position to pick one of the draft’s three or four best tackles, yeah, they should probably take that trade. If the return is only one Day 2 pick, that might not be worth it.
If the Titans add more starters via free agency or trades before April 25, trading down feels like less of a necessity. But, given the dynamics of what the Titans need and where this draft class is stacked, right now it feels like a defensible choice.