Can a Mexican Woman Replace a Popular President?
Two different polls stand out to this observer: one published in Mexico City’s Reforma newspaper with the other in Mexico’s leading economics paper, El Financiero:
Reforma Newspaper. “Good/bad” Poll on Social Programs (cash in the form of new/larger pensions and rising minimum wages); Good - 72%, Bad - 14%.
Good/bad Poll on “Combating Organized Crime” Poll; Good 23%, Bad - 52%...
El Financiero, November 23: General approval of AMLO 56%; Approval by people over 50 = 69%; On the economy, 36% approve49% disapprove; Public security, 24% approve, 63% disapprove; Public corruption, 35% approve, 47% disapprove; Social Programs 51% approve, 30% disapprove.
These two poll results frame some interesting questions.
If Lopez Obrador was running for reelection could he win the election running on large disapproval of his economics (47%); disapproval of corruption in his administration (47%); and disapproval of his public security (an overwhelming 63%)?
As he’s not able to run, can Lopez Obrador convert his approval by people over 50 for social programs to his “Morena” party’s nominee for President Claudia Sheinbaum?
Many, if not all polls so far predict Sheinbaum will win. Nonetheless, transferring popularity works when approval and popularity are transferable. They aren’t always.
Record numbers of murdered people can be transferred when the President directly refuses to arrest and convict murderers. In this campaign, pinning record numbers of murders on the President is not di-cult. On corruption, videos of the President’s brother receiving shopping bags full of pesos can be easily interwoven with videos of hungry children from “extreme poverty” neighborhoods. Additionally, AMLO promised his government would solve the suspected murder of 43 students in the state of Acapulco the Army has been associated with. He hasn’t produced. This would be a matter of Public Security.
The cost of canceling a 50%-completed world-class and necessary airport should be constantly shown on TV ads that relate the cost to how much food that would buy for the extreme poor of Mexico.
One might also include the stumbling of Lopez Obrador at the beginning of the COVID epidemic that undoubtedly cost thousands of lives. How many of Mexico’s poor died because vaccines weren’t available because the government was miles behind governments of many other countries. This would be a Public Security matter.
The June election of Mexico’s new President will be staffed with millions of Mexicans hired by the national electoral institute President Lopez Obrador attempted to disempower. He would have replaced independent vote counters by his own partisan party hacks. The only reason Lopez Obrador lost the Kght of his Plan A and B to destroy the independent electoral agency was the Mexican Supreme Court ruled that he could not change the Constitution without a three fourths super-majority of the Congress and Senate.
AMLO has announced that as his last Presidential effort of his Presidency he will ask Congress to change the Supreme Court from the traditionally appointed and senate conkrmed membership to an elected body. He wants voters to select justices supported by political parties, in particular by his political party that currently is favored by a majority of Mexicans. Will he succeed?
Can AMLO’S social popularity be transferred to Claudia Sheinbaum? Will she win the Mexican Presidency and extend President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s administration? Will she pull Mexico further to the left internationally? In other words, will Mexico be better friends with Cuba and Nicaragua or with the United States and Canada? Will she further her sponsor’s proclivity to redirect Mexico’s progress as a dynamic economy to a gigantic welfare state in which the government delivers cash that buys votes? Will she help or destroy the drug cartels that control huge regions of Mexican territory thanks to President Lopez Obrador’s orders pulling the Army away from hunting “narcos” to building airports no one wants.
Contreras is a U.S. Marine veteran, newspaper and magazine editorial writer, author and hosts the “Contreras Report” on Youtube.