Who comes after Joe Biden?
Who is the Democratic version of Ron DeSantis?
At 43, the Florida governor has already established himself as a major candidate to lead the Republican Party once Donald Trump, now 76, leaves the scene. Democrats have no comparable figure poised to succeed Joe Biden, who is three years older than Trump and clearly showing signs of advanced age.
The question of who comes after Biden is being asked more loudly and more often, even by Democrats who supported the president two years ago. Biden insists he will run for a second term, when he'll be 81. But in a stunning New York Times/Siena poll, 64% of all Democrats said they would prefer a different candidate heading the ticket in 2024, with only 26% favoring another Biden run.
The cause of their concern, bordering on panic, can be summed up in two numbers. The first is 37, Biden's average approval rating, his lowest score ever. The second number is 18, the percentage of Americans who say the country is headed in the right direction, while 3 out of 4 express pessimism about the future.
The Times described the Democrats' dismay: “As the challenges facing the nation mount and fatigued base voters show low enthusiasm, Democrats in union meetings, the back rooms of Capitol Hill and party gatherings from coast to coast are quietly worrying about Mr. Biden's leadership, his age and his capability to take the fight to former President Donald J. Trump a second time.”
But if not Biden, then who can “take the fight” to Trump, or his successor?
Bernie Sanders, who has already run and lost twice for the nomination, and threatens to run again, is already 80. Elizabeth Warren is 73. Vice President Kamala Harris is only 57, but she has underwhelmed Democrats with both her campaigning and executive skills. Transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg is 40, but the only political district he's ever run is South Bend, Indiana, population 102,000.
Two Democratic governors are raising their national profiles and hoping to fill what could be called the party's “DeSantis Gap,” but both face obvious obstacles. California's Gavin Newsom, 54, gained attention with a clever ad on Florida TV stations lacerating DeSantis and asserting, “Freedom is under attack in your state.” Newsom, however, faced a recall election last year, with critics charging, “People in this state suffer the highest taxes in the nation, the highest homelessness rates and the lowest quality of life as a result.” He survived, but in 2020 alone, almost 650,000 residents left California, hardly an advertisement for the governor's competence.
Illinois governor J.B. Pritzker, 57, drew praise after a deadly shooting in Highland Park by declaring with palpable passion: “Be angry. I'm furious that yet more innocent lives were taken by gun violence.” Pritzker received a standing ovation when he addressed a meeting of New Hampshire Democrats last month, and one enthusiastic local official told Politico, “He's got great energy. He's perfect.”
Still, Pritzker has to run for reelection this fall and remains untested on the national stage. He also belongs to one of the country's wealthiest families, hardly a Joe-From-Scranton type. Youth is not the only admirable asset in a potential president. Biden showed that only two years ago, as did Ronald Reagan, our oldest president before our current one. But American politics is always about the future, not the past, and younger candidates, energetic and hopeful, can express and embody that essential idea more convincingly than older rivals.
Between 1960 and 2012, Americans elected five Democratic presidents — Jack Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter,
Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. Their average age was just under 49. Kennedy captured their common message in his famous inaugural address when he intoned, “the torch has been passed to a new generation of Americans.”
He meant the generation that had fought World War II, but each of the others represented in their own way a new beginning, a fresh start. Johnson offered a “Great Society” that pioneered civil rights and Medicare. Carter promised truth after the lies of Watergate. Clinton, the first Baby Boomer president, campaigned as “The Man From Hope.” Obama became the first Black president by running on a platform of “Hope and Change.”
As Democrats try to move past the Biden years, they have to ask who, or what, comes next. So far they don't have an answer.