Las Vegas Review-Journal (Sunday)

BETTING BREAKDOWN

- Doug Fitz, Systemplay­s.com

Colts (0-1) at Redskins (1-0)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/Total: Redskins -6, 48½

■ Analysis: The offensive line injuries for the Colts is a concern but, despite last week’s home loss to the Bengals, they outgained Cincinnati 380 to 330 yards. Indianapol­is quarterbac­k Andrew Luck finally appears to be healthy after completing 39 of 53 passes for 319 yards and two touchdowns against the Bengals.

■ By the numbers: The Redskins are 1-9 against the spread as home favorites of at least three points in Week 2. … The Colts are 23-5 straight up and 22-6 ATS with Luck when coming off a loss, including 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS as an underdog.

■ Pick: Colts 21, Redskins 17

Panthers (1-0) at Falcons (0-1)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/Total: Falcons -6, 44

■ Analysis: Carolina is really thin on its offensive line because of injuries. I expect Atlanta to play much better in its home opener with extra rest after its road loss at Philadelph­ia.

■ By the numbers: Atlanta QB Matt Ryan is 9-1 SU and ATS in home openers and 8-0 SU and ATS at home in Week 2.

■ Pick: Falcons 28, Panthers 17

Vikings (1-0) at Packers (1-0)

■ Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

■ Line/Total: Off

■ Analysis: Obviously everything is dependent upon Aaron Rodgers’ status. I don’t think Green Bay will take a chance and let him play. That’s bad news for the Packers, who will be stuck with Deshone Kizer, who will have no prayer against arguably the NFL’s best defense.

■ By the numbers: The Packers are 2-8 ATS without Rodgers at home since he became the starter in 2008. … Vikings coach Mike Zimmer is 45-21-2 ATS as a coach.

■ Pick: Vikings 38, Packers 10

Chargers (0-1) at Bills (0-1)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/Total: Chargers -7½, 43

■ Analysis: Buffalo is starting rookie QB Josh Allen after benching Nathan Peterman. This will make somewhat of a difference against the Chargers, who are overpriced and without star defensive end Joey Bosa.

■ By the numbers: The Chargers are 3-13 ATS in their first of consecutiv­e road games when coming off a division game. … Home underdogs (Buffalo) off a loss of 40-plus points are 10-3-2 ATS since 1995.

■ Pick: Chargers 21, Bills 17

Texans (0-1) at Titans (0-1)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/Total: Texans -3, 43

■ Analysis: Titans quarterbac­k Marcus Mariota (elbow) will start, but Tennessee has numerous players out with injuries on offense, including tight end Delanie Walker. Texans QB Deshaun Watson should bounce back with a better performanc­e than he showed in last week’s loss at New England.

■ By the numbers: Houston is 10-4 SU and 11-3 ATS vs. Tennessee in the past seven seasons. … The Titans are 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six home openers.

■ Pick: Texans 28, Titans 23

Chiefs (1-0) at Steelers (0-0-1)

■ Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

■ Line/Total: Steelers -5½ ,53½

■ Analysis: It appears Ben Roethlisbe­rger will play for the Steelers, and he’s a much better QB at home than away — as evidenced by his five turnovers in a 21-21 tie at Cleveland. The market has severely overreacte­d to the Steelers’ poor performanc­e in their opener and the Chiefs’ impressive performanc­e in a 38-28 win over the Chargers.

■ By the numbers: The Steelers are 3-0 SU and ATS against the Chiefs the past two seasons. … Pittsburgh has won and covered its last six home games in Week 2 behind Big Ben by an average margin of 19 points.

■ Pick: Steelers 26, Chiefs 13

Dolphins (1-0) at Jets (1-0)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/Total: Jets -2½, 43½

■ Analysis: I don’t know if the Jets are as good as they looked last week. Miami has a pretty good defense, and this is a tough one to call. Jets QB Sam Darnold probably will regress from an incredible Week 1 performanc­e, and it’s generally a good idea to take points in a division game.

■ By the numbers: Miami is 1-16 ATS on the road when sandwiched between home games. … Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill has won eight of his last nine starts. … Under Jets coach Todd Bowles, New York is 2-6 SU and ATS after an upset win, failing to cover the spread by 9.2 points per game.

■ Pick: Dolphins 23, Jets 20

Eagles (1-0) at Buccaneers (1-0)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/Total: Eagles -3½ ,44½

■ Analysis: You won’t see another Tampa

Bay surprise here. Even with the Buccaneers’ impressive upset at New Orleans, their defense allowed 432 passing yards and 9.6 passing yards per attempt.

■ By the numbers: Bucs QB Ryan Fitzpatric­k is 1-10 SU and 1-9-1 ATS in his last 11 starts. … Since 2003, teams winning their previous game as a double-digit underdog (Tampa Bay) are 23-32-4 ATS the next week. And if they’re an underdog again (Tampa Bay), they’re 15-25-3 ATS. … The Eagles have covered 14 of their last 20 games. ■ Pick: Eagles 28, Buccaneers 17

Browns (0-0-1) at Saints (0-1)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/Total: Saints -9½, 49

■ Analysis: The Browns, who will be without receiver Josh Gordon (hamstring), are in trouble in this spot. The Saints are coming off a rare home loss. New Orleans should be angry and totally focused. The Browns are in a terrible schedule spot after an emotional division game against their bitter rival Pittsburgh and having to travel to play a far superior nonconfere­nce opponent coming off a home loss.

■ By the numbers: Since 2003, teams that lost their previous game as double-digit favorites (Saints) have gone 35-22-2 (61 percent) ATS the next week. If that team is favored (Saints), that record improves to 19-9-1 (68 percent) ATS. … The Saints are the NFL’s only offense averaging more than 30 points per game at home since 2015.

■ Pick: Saints 37, Browns 10

Cardinals (0-1) at Rams (1-0)

■ Time: 1:05 p.m.

■ Line/Total: Rams -13, 44½

■ Analysis: Everyone appears to be betting the Rams, but this is a misguided overreacti­on. An old sports betting adage is no team is as good or bad as its last game. This is certainly a good example, and the betting market has gotten way too carried away, leaving some value with Arizona.

■ By the numbers: The Rams are 1-8 ATS in games after playing an AFC opponent and 1-6 ATS as favorites in home openers. … The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS as underdogs in road openers and 5-1 ATS away against teams off Monday night (Rams) games.

■ Pick: Rams 27, Cardinals 20

Lions (0-1) at 49ers (0-1)

■ Time: 1:05 p.m.

■ Line/Total: 49ers -6, 48½

■ Analysis: Another market overreacti­on. The 49ers looked OK last week, and Detroit was about as bad as any team could be.

■ By the numbers: NFL teams in Week 2 off a SU favorite loss (Detroit) allowing 40-plus points are 5-1-1 ATS as road underdogs. … Detroit is 6-1 ATS as road underdogs between home games.

■ Pick: 49ers 24, Lions 21

Patriots (1-0) at Jaguars (1-0)

■ Time: 1:25 p.m.

■ Line/Total: Patriots -1, 44½

■ Analysis: I won’t have to overthink this one. I’m backing the better overall team with some amazing trends to support New England.

■ By the numbers: Since 2003, Patriots QB Tom Brady is 44-19-5 ATS against above .500 opponents (Jacksonvil­le). … When Brady is less than a 3-point favorite or underdog, the Patriots are 22-6-1 ATS, covering by an average of 9.8 points. … If New England is on the road in the above situations, it’s 17-5-1 ATS and covers by more than 10 points per game.

■ Pick: Patriots 27, Jaguars 13

Raiders (0-1) at Broncos (1-0)

■ Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8

■ Line/Total: Broncos -6½ ,46

■ Analysis: After a great first half last week, I’m counting on a much better performanc­e from the Raiders. This is a division opponent they should be competitiv­e against, and the number is too high as another betting market overreacti­on. I’ll call for an outright Raiders win.

■ By the numbers: Since 2003, teams that lost at home by 20 or more points (Oakland) and are underdogs in their next game (Oakland) are 11493-3 ATS, including 106-82-3 ATS as underdogs of at least three points. … Oakland is 5-0 ATS in its last five road openers. … Denver is 1-12 ATS as a favorite when playing teams coming off a Monday night game (Oakland).

■ Pick: Raiders 21, Broncos 17

Giants (0-1) at Cowboys (0-1)

■ Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

■ Line/Total: Cowboys -3, 42

■ Analysis: Both teams are coming off losses, but the Giants looked much more competitiv­e last week. The Cowboys have been money burners at home for quite some time. Betting NFC East division underdogs is usually the right move.

■ By the numbers: The Giants are 8-2-1 ATS as division underdogs with revenge on Sunday nights. … Giants QB Eli Manning is 12-3 ATS in division games off a loss. … Jason Garrett is 23-38-1 ATS at home as Cowboys coach.

■ Pick: Giants 23, Cowboys 20

Seahawks (0-1) at Bears (0-1)

■ Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

■ Line/Total: Bears -3½, 43

■ Analysis: This is a pretty evenly matched game, but I see value with the Seahawks, who come in after a loss. The Bears snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in last week’s 24-23 loss at Green Bay. I don’t think a young team such as Chicago with a rookie coach can recover easily from that game, in which Aaron Rodgers helped the Packers overcome a 20-0 deficit.

■ By the numbers: Seattle QB Russell Wilson is 6-1 SU on Monday nights. He’s also 11-4 SU against NFC North opponents and 16-8-2 ATS as an underdog. … Pete Carroll is 33-13 SU when coming off a loss as Seattle’s coach.

■ Pick: Seahawks 20, Bears 16

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