Winners, losers of the USMCA

Experts who have had a chance to analyze the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which replaces the North American Free Trade Agreement, found that it is a minor revision around the edges, not a major redo.

One change is that many Mexican auto workers will get a big jump in pay, up to $16 an hour. Plus, they will get safer working conditions. Will that bring car manufacturing back to the U.S.? Probably not. American auto workers still make much more than Mexican workers even with their pay increase. The big loser: Americans who will have to pay more for their cars.

Of course, if the cost of making cars in North America makes them less competitive to sell in China, manufacturing may move to China. Then the big losers would be all North American auto workers.

U.S. dairy farmers will get to export more powdered milk, milk protein concentrate and baby formula to Canada. So that is a win for some in the U.S.

U.S. Big Pharma will get longer patents on drugs in Canada, so generics will be harder to get for Canadians. Big winner: Big Pharma. The big loser: Canadians.

The biggest change is the rebranding of the agreement. This will allow President Donald Trump to brag that “promises made are promises kept.” That will play well at Trump rallies, but it doesn’t do a whole lot of good for most Americans.

Stanley Cohen, Henderson