BET­TING BREAK­DOWN

Las Vegas Review-Journal (Sunday) - - NFL -

Ted Sevran­sky, Sportsmemo.com, @ted­dy_­cov­ers

Colts (6-5) at Jaguars (3-8)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/To­tal: Colts -4, 47

■ Anal­y­sis: The Jaguars mer­ci­fully benched start­ing QB Blake Bor­tles and fired of­fen­sive co­or­di­na­tor Nathaniel Hack­ett af­ter their sev­enth con­sec­u­tive loss last week. Now Cody Kessler gets his chance to guide this ane­mic of­fense, but he’ll be with­out sus­pended RB Leonard Four­nette. The Colts are lay­ing more points in Jack­sonville than they did as 3-point home fa­vorites over the Jaguars three weeks ago. But this sure feels like a matchup of two teams headed in op­po­site di­rec­tions.

■ By the num­bers: Kessler is 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS as a start­ing QB in his ca­reer, dat­ing to his time in Cleve­land. … An­drew Luck is 11-6-1 ATS in De­cem­ber.

■ Pick: Colts 27, Jags 13

Pan­thers (6-5) at Buc­ca­neers (4-7)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/To­tal: Pan­thers -3, 53½

■ Anal­y­sis: There’s a sense of ur­gency in Carolina af­ter three straight losses, the last two of which were sim­ply ex­cru­ci­at­ing for Pan­thers bet­tors. But Jameis Win­ston de­liv­ered his first turnover­free per­for­mance of the season last week, and the Tampa Bay de­fense has played much bet­ter in its last two home games than its season statis­tics would in­di­cate.

■ By the num­bers: The Bucs are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five home games against Carolina. … Cam New­ton is 5-0-1 ATS in De­cem­ber af­ter a loss.

■ Pick: Pan­thers 24, Buc­ca­neers 23

Ravens (6-5) at Fal­cons (4-7)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/To­tal: Fal­cons -1½ ,48½

■ Anal­y­sis: The streaky Ravens are on an uptick, com­ing off back-to-back wins against bot­tom feed­ers at home that al­lowed rookie QB La­mar Jack­son to play from ahead. But the Fal­cons of­fense re­mains a truly po­tent unit, and we ex­pect it to put Jack­son in a tough spot.

■ By the num­bers: The Ravens are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games af­ter a SU win of more than 14 points. … The Fal­cons are 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games vs. the AFC.

■ Pick: Fal­cons 27, Ravens 24

Browns (4-6-1) at Tex­ans (8-3)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/To­tal: Tex­ans -5½ ,47½

■ Anal­y­sis: Since Cleve­land dumped Hue Jack­son and Todd Ha­ley, Baker May­field has blos­somed, throw­ing for nine TDs and one in­ter­cep­tion in the last three weeks. But le­git­i­mate ques­tions per­sist on whether the Browns can han­dle suc­cess with ma­tu­rity or are ripe for a let­down af­ter last week’s emo­tional win at Cincin­nati. Houston is in a di­vi­sional sand­wich, off a big Mon­day night win and on a short week.

■ By the num­bers: The Tex­ans are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 tries as fa­vorites of at least three points.

■ Pick: Browns 21 Tex­ans 20

Bills (4-7) at Dol­phins (5-6)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/To­tal: Dol­phins -3½ ,40

■ Anal­y­sis: Five of Buf­falo’s seven losses have been by at least 19 points in games in which the Bills failed to score 10. But they’ve put up 65 points in back-to-back wins and made all the key de­fen­sive plays down the stretch in Josh Allen’s re­turn to the lineup last week. Mi­ami got Ryan Tan­nehill back last week, but fell apart of­fen­sively and de­fen­sively, los­ing a dou­ble-digit lead in a 27-24 loss at In­di­anapo­lis. The Dol­phins are 2-6 since a 3-0 start.

■ By the num­bers: The Bills are 15-2 ATS as road un­der­dogs of at least three points against op­po­nents off back-to-back losses.

■ Pick: Bills 24, Dol­phins 16

Bears (8-3) at Giants (3-8)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/To­tal: Bears -3½ ,44½

■ Anal­y­sis: The Giants en­tered last week with a le­git­i­mate path to the post­sea­son. They closed out the week by blow­ing a 16-point lead in a loss to the Ea­gles, es­sen­tially clinch­ing last place in the NFC East. Now a weak of­fen­sive line and a turnover-prone QB have to take on a de­fense that leads the NFL in in­ter­cep­tions and forced fum­bles.

■ By the num­bers: The Giants are 2-13-1 in their last 16 tries af­ter a cover, in­clud­ing an 0-3-1 ATS record in that role this season. … The Bears have won and cov­ered their last five games.

■ Pick: Bears 33, Giants 10

Bron­cos (5-6) at Ben­gals (5-6)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/To­tal: Bron­cos -5½ ,45

■ Anal­y­sis: Jeff Driskel gets his shot at QB for the Ben­gals. He’s in his third year out of Louisiana Tech but get­ting his first taste of NFL ac­tion. Driskel prob­a­bly won’t have start­ing left tackle Jordy Glenn (doubt­ful) to pro­tect him, but star WR A.J. Green could be back. Den­ver is 3-10 SU on the road in the Vance Joseph era and hasn’t cov­ered a spread of at least four points un­der Joseph.

■ By the num­bers: The Bron­cos are on a 6-0 cover streak. … The Ben­gals are on a 1-5 spread slide.

■ Pick: Bron­cos 21, Ben­gals 19

Rams (10-1) at Lions (4-7)

■ Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

■ Line/To­tal: Rams -10, 55

■ Anal­y­sis: The Lions have stepped up at home, notch­ing im­pres­sive up­set wins over the Pa­tri­ots, Pan­thers and Pack­ers. But Detroit’s skill position tal­ent has been dec­i­mated. The Rams are com­ing off their bye week.

■ By the num­bers: Matthew Stafford is 10-21 ATS in De­cem­ber. … The Rams are 1-5-2 ATS since their 3-0 ATS start.

■ Pick: Rams 31, Lions 23

Car­di­nals (2-9) at Pack­ers (4-6-1)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/To­tal: Pack­ers -13½, 43½

■ Anal­y­sis: The weather fore­cast at Lam­beau Field isn’t pretty for the team from the desert, and the Car­di­nals have topped 17 points once in five pre­vi­ous road games. De­spite Green Bay’s strug­gles, it showed the abil­ity to blow out a strug­gling foe at home when it blasted Mi­ami two weeks ago.

■ By the num­bers: Aaron Rodgers is 14-3 ATS at home in De­cem­ber. … Ari­zona is 1-3 ATS as a dou­ble-digit un­der­dog this season.

■ Pick: Pack­ers 30, Car­di­nals 9

Chiefs (9-2) at Raiders (2-9)

■ Time: 1:05 p.m., KLAS-8

■ Line/To­tal: Chiefs -14, 55

■ Anal­y­sis: Pro Foot­ball Fo­cus just named the Raiders’ pass rush the worst in the NFL. In last week’s loss at Bal­ti­more, Oak­land gave up a touch­down on of­fense and an­other on spe­cial teams. It has failed in all three phases of the game in the first season of Jon Gru­den’s 10-year con­tract. But Kansas City just cut star RB Ka­reem Hunt af­ter a do­mes­tic vi­o­lence episode , a ma­jor off-field dis­trac­tion and on-field loss.

■ By the num­bers: The Chiefs have been stel­lar in just about ev­ery ATS role over the past year and are rid­ing a 12-3-1 cover streak. … Kansas City is 20-7-1 ATS in its last 28 road games. … The Raiders are on a 1-6 spread skid.

■ Pick: Chiefs 28, Raiders 17

Jets (3-8) at Ti­tans (5-6)

■ Time: 1:05 p.m.

■ Line/To­tal: Ti­tans -8, 40½

■ Anal­y­sis: Todd Bowles’ days ap­pear to be num­bered in New York, and the Jets haven’t scored more than 17 points in a game since Week

6. New York’s de­fense hasn’t cre­ated a turnover dur­ing its five-game los­ing streak. But Mar­cus Mar­i­ota has been sacked 11 times in back-to-back losses, and the Ti­tans are 0-2 SU as chalk this season.

■ By the num­bers: The Jets are on an 0-4 spread skid on the road and an 0-5 ATS slide over­all. … The Ti­tans are on a 12-3-1 ATS run at home.

■ Pick: Ti­tans 19, Jets 14

Vik­ings (6-4-1) at Pa­tri­ots (8-3)

■ Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5

■ Line/To­tal: Pa­tri­ots -5½, 49½

■ Anal­y­sis: The Vik­ings’ de­fense is more than a half yard per play bet­ter than New Eng­land’s de­fense, which has been torched by medi­ocre of­fenses such as the Ti­tans and Lions. But the Pa­tri­ots are ex­pected to have Rob Gronkowski and Sony Michel on the field, giv­ing Tom Brady his full com­ple­ment of weapons.

■ By the num­bers: The Pa­tri­ots are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 reg­u­lar-season home games, only fail­ing to cover by a half point against the Chiefs. … The Vik­ings are on a 12-4 cover streak in Weeks 13 to 16.

■ Pick: Pa­tri­ots 35, Vik­ings 25

49ers (2-9) at Sea­hawks (6-5)

■ Time: 1:25 p.m.

■ Line/To­tal: Sea­hawks -9½ ,46

■ Anal­y­sis: Seat­tle’s bet­ting band­wagon is growing by the week, as it has av­er­aged 27 ppg dur­ing a 5-1-1 ATS run. Half of the Sea­hawks’ six wins have been by dou­ble dig­its, but they haven’t been dou­ble-digit chalk since Septem­ber 2017. The 49ers ap­pear to be more in­ter­ested in se­cur­ing the No. 1 over­all draft pick than win­ning games.

■ By the num­bers: Seat­tle is 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14 meet­ings and 21-9-1 in its past 31 De­cem­ber games. … The 49ers are tied for the NFL’s worst spread record this season at 3-8.

■ Pick: Sea­hawks 27, 49ers 17

Charg­ers (8-3) at Steel­ers (7-3-1)

■ Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

■ Line/To­tal: Steel­ers -3½ ,52

■ Anal­y­sis: For a De­cem­ber night game in Pitts­burgh, weather con­di­tions are ex­pected to be rea­son­able, with game-time tem­per­a­tures in the low 50s. The Charg­ers won’t have star RB Melvin Gor­don, but ev­ery quote from inside the or­ga­ni­za­tion ex­pressed con­fi­dence in backup Austin Ekeler. The Steel­ers should be hun­gry off their four-turnover de­ba­cle in Den­ver.

■ By the num­bers: The Steel­ers are on a 6-0 ATS run af­ter a loss. … The Charg­ers are on an 8-20-1 spread slide af­ter scor­ing at least 30 points the pre­vi­ous week.

■ Pick: Steel­ers 31, Charg­ers 26

Red­skins (6-5) at Ea­gles (5-6)

■ Time: 5:15 p.m. Mon­day, ESPN

■ Line/To­tal: Ea­gles -6½ ,45

■ Anal­y­sis: The Ea­gles have been fa­vored 10 times this season. They lost five of those games SU and failed to cover in two oth­ers. But the Red­skins have been dec­i­mated by in­juries in the last month, los­ing most of their of­fen­sive line, their start­ing QB and a bevy of skill position tal­ent.

■ By the num­bers: The Red­skins are 1-9 SU and ATS in their last 10 games on “Mon­day Night Foot­ball.” … Philadel­phia is rid­ing a 16-4 cover streak on ‘MNF’ and has won and cov­ered its last five Mon­day games vs. the NFC East.

■ Pick: Ea­gles 25, Red­skins 20

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