Las Vegas Review-Journal (Sunday)
NFL betting blitz: Division-by-division handicaps and futures picks for the AFC
The NFL season begins in less than two weeks, meaning time is running out to build a full preseason futures betting portfolio. Game-by-game, week-byweek betting remains king in local sports books, but some gamblers’ capital could be better spent by wading deeper into futures pools instead. Yes, there’s a counterpoint that futures lock up money for an extended period of time to incur a larger opportunity cost, but there are also positives.
The preseason markets tend to be less efficient, with prices sometimes varying widely from one book to the next, to create bigger edges to go along with the promise of a larger sample size. A lot of craziness can happen on any given Sunday, but order is generally more likely to prevail over a 17-game season.
As one final handicapping act before the NFL kicks off, let’s go through every division over the next couple weeks to cover every team and find some last-minute futures worth locking in.
Check back for the NFC next week.
AFC East
The Bills have been the best overall team in the NFL over the last three regular seasons combined, and there’s not a close second. Buffalo’s scoring margin in the span is even 135 total points better than the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs’ mark.
That lethal efficiency is more predictive going forward than a pair of heartbreaking playoff losses (to the Chiefs in 2020 and 2021) and a no-show last postseason (against the Bengals). Stock is down on the Bills and there’s no justified reason why considering they’re returning practically the same team as last season, which only declined after a momentous rash of injuries.
Buffalo’s record may decrease from 13-3, but it would be solely because of how tough the rest of the division appears. The Jets (-130 to make the playoffs at Circa Sports), Dolphins (-120) and Patriots (+230) are all reasonable postseason contenders though they each carry some flaws.
New York’s defense might be the most talented in the league, but it’s unlikely the Jets get an Mvp-level of play out of prized new quarterback Aaron Rodgers, whose advanced metrics plummeted last year.
Miami coach Mike Mcdaniel’s offense looked unstoppable early in his first season, but the league seemingly began to figure it out late while injury attrition also took its toll. There’s a lot of excitement among Dolphin fans around the arrival of defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, but the personnel isn’t there — especially with the training camp injury to cornerback Jalen Ramsey — to take a leap into the elite ranks.
The Patriots appear to be the forgotten squad, but they should be much better with a real offensive coordinator, Bill O’brien, on staff after last year’s makeshift fiasco. Their defense has been consistently terrific, and if quarterback Mac Jones can get back to into his promising rookie form under O’brien’s watch, they’re more dangerous than advertised.
Best Bets: Bills to win the division at +125 (BETMGM), Dolphins to miss the playoffs at +105 (Superbook at Westgate Las Vegas) and Patriots over 7.5 wins at +120 (Superbook)
AFC North
Divisions talked up as historically tough almost always underwhelm — see last year’s AFC West — but this year’s AFC North might be the group to break the trend. It looks like a gauntlet and leaves a real chance that all four teams make the playoffs (a scenario priced at 12-to-1 in sports books outside of Nevada).
No team has ever three-peated
in this division since its inception in 2002, and despite being the consensus favorite, it’s not going to be easy for Cincinnati (currently +170 at Circa) to become the first this season. The Bengals have gotten off to slow starts in each of the last two seasons, but taking time to round into form isn’t a luxury they can afford this year.
With back-to-back divisional games against the two teams priced as their top competition — the Ravens (+215 to win the division) and the Browns (+340) — to start the season, they’ve got some major hurdles to overcome. Quarterback Joe Burrow hasn’t been practicing with a calf injury, and they’ve lost a number of impact veterans off what had become an above-average defense.
Cincinnati was also squarely outplayed in a wild-card round win over Baltimore last season, only advancing mostly because of a fluke 98-yard fumble recovery. And that was facing Ravens backup quarterback Tyler Huntley.
Baltimore figures to be formidable with former MVP Lamar Jackson now healthy, locked up long term and working with a sharp new offensive coordinator in Todd Monken.
Baltimore has some questions on defense, but that’s where Cleveland could rank among the best in the league with Myles Garrett and Za’darius Smith joining forces as edge rushers. Cleveland’s overall roster quality
ranks right up with the best in the league, as long as quarterback Deshaun Watson can shake off a rough five-game stretch coming off his suspension last year.
The Steelers typically find a way to stay in the mix, but their personnel rates a cut lower than their three rivals. There’s great optimism based on the way they won six of seven to end last season behind the progression of rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett, but on the season as a whole, Pittsburgh was still slightly mediocre.
Best Bets: Browns to win the division at 4-to-1 (Boyd) and Steelers under 9 wins at even money (Caesars/william Hill)
AFC South
The Jaguars are the deserved odds-on favorite, but they’re drifting close to -200 at some sports books. That feels like an overreach.
The Titans, Colts and Texans are all projected to be in the bottom third of the league, but it rarely works out that three divisional opponents all wind up dregs of the league. The challenge comes in finding out which of the teams is most likely to eclipse expectations and make a run at the Jaguars.
The Titans (3-to-1 at Circa) are priced as the top competition, but quarterback Ryan Tannehill has declined in each of the last two years and the defense doesn’t have the difference-makers it once could throw at opponents.
Coach Mike Vrabel has gotten the most out of his teams on many occasions to help Tennessee overachieve, but he’s really going to have to prove to be the Music City Magician to repeat it this year.
The Texans (9-to-1) are finally stocked with foundational young talent, but they’re a year or two away from really contending. The preseason and training-camp reports on quarterback C.J. Stroud haven’t been encouraging, and he doesn’t have enough around him in the receiving corps to thrive in his rookie season.
That leaves the Colts (7-to-1), which might be the team getting most shortchanged by the betting market. Indianapolis was a trendy Super Bowl pick at this time last year, and much of the same roster still remains along with a younger, and likely, better quarterback in Anthony Richardson and a perfect match in coach Shane Steichen.
The first-year Colts’ coach should be able to adapt concepts he used to great success with Jalen Hurts as the Eagles’ offensive coordinator last year for Richardson. There’s value on the Colts to win the division at as high as 8-to-1 at South Point, but if they pull it off, Steichen will draw serious Coach of the Year buzz — and that award price is much higher.
Best Bets: Shane Steichen to win Coach of the Year at 25-to-1 (Boyd)
AFC West
Kansas City has defeated the Los Angeles Chargers three consecutive times, but it’s come via two field-goals and an overtime victory.
On paper, the two teams look commensurate.
It might not even be difficult to argue that the Chargers have the more complete roster. The Broncos are another AFC West team that can stack up to practically any opponent in terms of well-roundedness.
But the Chiefs have quarterback Patrick Mahomes, and counting on the NFL’S best player bar none has been more than enough to overcome other shortcomings en route to two Super Bowl titles and another appearance in the last three years.
They also have coach Andy Reid, who’s led the franchise to seven straight divisional titles dating back to even before Mahomes was drafted.
A strong mathematical case could be made that the Chiefs’ near -200 price to win the division is too expensive, and that the Chargers at as high as +340 or even the Broncos at 9-to-1 represent value. But as long Mahomes and Reid are around, and at least until they are knocked off in the AFC West, it’s too hard to suggest a divisional bet on any other team.
Sean Payton still probably deserves to be considered one of the best coaches in the NFL, but he will have hands full trying to turn around the Broncos’ offense. Cluster injuries at wide receiver — where Denver has lost Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler throughout training camp — aren’t going to help embattled quarterback Russell Wilson bounce back from a disastrous first season in the Rocky Mountains.
The Raiders have beaten the Broncos six consecutive times and shouldn’t be priced so far behind them. Defense has annually been Las Vegas’ biggest problem, but the unit looks much improved going into this year led by one of the league’s most disrupting forces in edge rusher Maxx Crosby.
Best Bets: Broncos under 8.5 wins at even money (South Point) and Raiders over 6.5 wins at +120 (Superbook)