Las Vegas Review-Journal (Sunday)
NFL betting blitz: Division-by-division handicaps and future picks of the NFC
This story was posted on lasvegassun.com at 2 a.m.
Seven months ago, the NFC was favored to win a third straight Super Bowl over the AFC.
The Philadelphia Eagles closed a 1.5-point favorite over the Kansas City Chiefs ahead of their eventual 38-35 loss in Super Bowl 57. It would be somewhat of a surprise if the NFC champion wound up laying points to the AFC champion next Feb. 11, when Allegiant Stadium hosts Super Bowl 58.
The balance of power keeps shifting further in the AFC’S direction. Current lines have the NFC only a 2.5- or 3-point favorite over the AFC before the season, but public perception could lead anyone to believe that the number would be even higher.
The vast majority of fans’ and analysts’ champion picks come from the AFC, where competition for playoff spots looks to be much fiercer than in the NFC where there are far fewer proven championship-caliber teams and players. But all bets pay the same, and there’s plenty of value to uncover in the NFC just like there was in the AFC edition of this column a week ago.
Let’s go through every NFC division and find the best current plays to conclude our long-running NFL betting preview pieces ahead of the regular season starting next week.
NFC East
Most college football conferences have done away with divisions and instead plan to reward the best overall teams going forward. The NFL is unlikely to ever follow suit, but it sure would be nice in cases like this year’s NFC East.
A strong argument can be made that the two best teams in the conference are among this group in the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles and the rival Dallas Cowboys. It would be a surprise if both didn’t have double-digit victories — Dallas’ over/under win total is a heavily-juiced 10 while Philadelphia’s is 11.5 — and yet one of them would almost assuredly have to win three straight road playoff games to reach the Super Bowl.
Dallas has more continuity and stronger overall personnel. The Cowboys have won at least 10 games in four of seven seasons with Dak Prescott at quarterback including 12 in each of the last two years. They also have the most inventive and feared defense in the league starring Defensive Player of the Year favorite Micah Parsons (+425 to win the award at Circa Sports).
Coming off their memorable season, the Eagles lost both coordinators to head-coaching jobs (Shane Steichen to the Indianapolis Colts and Jonathan Gannon to the Arizona Cardinals) and a ton of defensive production to free agency. They figure to still have one of the best offenses in the league, but will need young players like a trio of Georgia rookies in defensive tackle Jalen Carter, edge rusher Nolan Smith and cornerback Kelee Ringo to prevent the defense from falling off too much.
Luckily, training-camp buzz indicated Carter looked like the gamechanger he was promised to be while he was briefly linked as a potential No. 1 overall draft pick.
The New York Giants and Washington Commanders are no pushovers either. Washington could have one of the best defensive lines in the league, while New York is coming off a playoff win and is led by deserved reigning Coach of the Year Brian Daboll.
It’s just difficult to confidently back either one of them with four combined games set against the Cowboys and Eagles.
Best Bets: Cowboys to win the division at +185 (Circa Sports) and Jalen Carter to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at 9-to-1 (Golden Nugget)
NFC North
The duo isn’t quite at the level of the Cowboys and Eagles, but the NFC North also mostly shapes up as a two-team race. And it’s not the two-team race most are expecting.
The Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers have far fewer flaws than the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears. Green Bay may not have any more superstars after the exits of quarterback Aaron Rodgers and receiver Davante Adams in back-to-back years, but despite what the former may say, general manager Brian Gutekunst has done a strong job roster building.
If new quarterback Jordan Love is even serviceable — and with underrated offensive coach Matt Lafleur at the helm, that seems likely — then the Packers are a surefire playoff contender. They opened as high as 6-to-1 to win the division in the offseason, which was one of the best bets a gambler could have made before the odds rightfully began crashing.
The Lions are the deserved divisional favorite at +140, but expecting them to pick up right where they left off as one of the NFL’S best offenses at the end of last season could be dangerous. Quarterback Jared Goff’s larger track record suggests some regression is likely.
Minnesota won the division last year but was a bottom-third team in the league by virtually any efficiency metric and oddsmakers’ power ratings. Perpetually a sharp front office, the Vikings’ powers-that-be seemed to realize as much and cut ties with several productive veterans including edge rusher Za’darius Smith and running back Dalvin Cook.
They may not be saying it explicitly, but the Vikings are making moves that say they’re rebuilding on the fly. There’s hope that this season is the end of a rebuild in Chicago, but there are questions at virtually every position group.
Quarterback Justin Fields hasn’t developed into a decent passer, the offensive line is banged up, the pass rush ranked second to last in the league in sack rate last year and the secondary gave up the most yards per passing attempt a season ago.
Best Bets: Packers to win the division at +375 (BETMGM), Vikings under 8.5 wins at +115 (Superbook at Westgate Las Vegas) and Bears under 7.5 wins at +120 (Caesars/william Hill)
NFC South
Rinse and repeat. It’s another NFC division with two teams hogging an unruly portion of the win probability. The betting market has the right two teams now.
The New Orleans Saints (+115 to win the division at Circa Sports) and Atlanta Falcons (+200) should be locked in a battle all year, one that may not be decided until a Week 18 matchup between the rivals to cap the regular season. Neither the Falcons nor the Saints look like Super Bowl contenders, but they’re both likely playoff teams considering they have the two easiest schedules in the league.
Former Raiders quarterback Derek Carr said he just wanted to go to a place where he could win, and he may have gotten his wish given the soft slate in front of the Saints. New Orleans’ roster is aging and the defense should decline from a year ago, but it should be a lot better offensively with Carr throwing to Chris Olave, Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, after his threegame suspension elapses.
The Falcons are going to bludgeon teams on the ground with a running back room of Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier and Cordarelle Patterson. It’s typically smart to zig when everyone else is zagging, and the ball-control, defense-first setup Falcons coach Arthur Smith plans to implement might just work.
Smith may represent Atlanta’s biggest edge over New Orleans as the latter’s coach, Dennis Allen, has consistently struggled and underachieved.
The Carolina Panthers could get into contention, but their stock is down after a rough preseason in which the offensive line couldn’t protect No. 1 overall drafted quarterback Bryce Young. The Panthers’ win total dropped from eight to seven at a number of sports books.
Young’s Rookie of the Year odds have shot all the way up to 7-to-1, which looks too high. Carolina will likely struggle, but the probability of Young, the most proven quarterback in this year’s rookie class, excelling is better than those odds imply.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have bigger quarterback problems. Even at 45, Tom Brady cleaned up a lot of the Buccaneers’ shortcomings a year ago with his quick processing and release. Baker Mayfield will need a major renaissance to be able to do the same.
Best Bets: Falcons to win the division at +210 (Boyd Sports) and Bryce Young at 7-to-1 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (Circa Sports)
NFC West
The two-team trend is finally broken. The NFC West has the surest division winner in the NFL, and the odds are slowly coming around to reflect as much.
The San Francisco 49ers spent most of the offseason around -150 to repeat as NFC West champions, behind the Chiefs (as high as -200 to win the AFC West) and Jacksonville Jaguars (as high as -175 to win the AFC South) as the most likely divisional champion in the league. San Francisco has now surpassed both AFC teams at some sports books at as high as -200 itself to win the NFC West.
And it makes sense, especially with quarterback Brock Purdy cleared from his elbow injury to start the season. Purdy deserves more credit for his exceptional eight-game stretch at the end of last season from outside the organization.
Internally, he’s got it as evidenced by coach Kyle Shanahan handing over the starting job without much question. Purdy helped blow out the NFC West second-choice Seattle Seahawks 41-23 in the first round of the playoffs, and yet some still put the latter in the same class with the 49ers.
Seattle was priced as one of the worst teams in the league coming into last season and eclipsed expectations for a surprise playoff run. But the Seahawks’ magic waned late in the year, and teams fitting their profile traditionally regress the next season.
There’s no reason they should be priced so much higher than the Los Angeles Rams, who are two years removed from winning the Super Bowl. Los Angeles has no depth, but as long as it’s healthy, shouldn’t be one of the worst teams in the league.
The Rams even hold some hidden upside with the potential of all the young, unknown quantities overachieving next to the team’s big three of quarterback Matthew Stafford, wide receiver Cooper Kupp and defensive tackle Aaron Donald.
Arizona is going to be bad, but Circa’s microscopic 2-to-1 price on it posting the worst record in the league may be an overreaction. There’s usually more parity in the NFL than expected, and it’s rare for a team to be that helpless.
Best Bets: 49ers to win the division at -165 (BETMGM), Seahawks under 9 wins at -120 (Superbook) and Rams over 6.5 wins at +110 (Superbook)