NFL BREAKDOWN

Scott Kellen, @Sixthsensenfl, Sixthsensesports.com

Raiders (1-2) at Chargers (1-2)

■ Time: 1:05 p.m., KLAS-8

■ Line/total: Chargers -6, 49

■ Analysis: Raiders star receiver Davante Adams spoke out this week about a lack of effort from players, while coach Josh Mcdaniels is making questionable decisions at the end of the game. With all that said, should the Chargers really be laying 4½ points to any team? The Raiders’ biggest issue is a -7 in net turnover margin. If they can play a somewhat clean game, they will stay in it.

■ Pick: Chargers 30, Raiders 27 Jaguars (1-2) vs. Falcons (2-1), at London

■ Time: 6:30 a.m., ESPN+

■ Line/total: Jaguars -3, 43

■ Analysis: Atlanta wants to run the ball, but Jacksonville has been stout against the run, ranking sixth in yards per run allowed (3.4). Falcons QB Desmond Ridder has the sixth-lowest air yards intended per pass, which means a lot has to go Atlanta’s way to move the ball down the field without any mistakes. But Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence is eighth-lowest in the league in air yards intended, so he’s not taking shots down the field, either.

■ Pick: Jaguars 23, Falcons 21

Dolphins (3-0) at Bills (2-1)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Bills -3, 53½

■ Analysis: Miami isn’t playing against Denver’s porous defense this week. It’s facing a Buffalo team that can actually play defense and has allowed only 29 points this season (not counting a punt return TD). The Dolphins have faced only one good defense this season at New England, where they scored 24. These teams played three times last season, with Miami winning by two points at home and losing by three twice in Buffalo. Teams such as the Bills that have scored 31 points or more and allowed 13 or less in two straight weeks are 10-361 against the spread in their next game. Miami’s 70-point explosion last week has kept this line in check.

■ Pick: Bills 26, Dolphins 23

Vikings (0-3) at Panthers (0-3) ■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Vikings -4½ ,46½

■ Analysis: A year after Minnesota went 11-0 in one-score games, the Vikings are 0-3 in one-score games. Minnesota went 13-4 overall last season, but its numbers are

better this year from the line of scrimmage. The Vikings aren’t winning close games because they’re -7 in net turnover margin.

Pick: Vikings 26, Panthers 22 Broncos (0-3) at Bears (0-3) Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Broncos -3, 46

Analysis: Which team is worse? Neither 0-3 squad puts pressure on the passer, and both teams allow plenty of pressure. The Broncos are eighth in the league in yppa and will face a Chicago defense that is 31st in yppa allowed and dealing with a cluster of injuries in its secondary. Denver has been competitive in a couple of games. The Bears have not.

Pick: Broncos 23, Bears 20

Ravens (2-1) at Browns (2-1)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Browns -2, 38

■ Analysis: The Ravens are banged-up again, though they may get their two best offensive lineman back this week. Baltimore’s offensive line might improve, but it has been below average in allowing sacks and now faces the NFL’S best team at applying pressure. But don’t underestimate Lamar Jackson, who is 9-1 ATS as a road underdog.

■ Pick: Ravens 25, Browns 23 Steelers (2-1) at Texans (1-2) ■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Steelers -3, 42

■ Analysis: This is a perfect spot for a letdown for the Steelers, who are coming off back-to-back wins in prime time and have the Ravens on deck. The biggest issue for Houston is its injury-ravaged offensive line facing a Pittsburgh defense that ranks third in the league in pressure rate. Week 4 underdogs such as Houston that are off a win following losses in their first two games are 49-23-1 ATS.

■ Pick: Steelers 22, Texans 20

Rams (1-2) at Colts (2-1)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Pick, 45½

■ Analysis: The Colts are coming off consecutive wins over the Ravens and Texans. Home teams coming off two straight wins as underdogs have a 29-8 over mark. The Rams’ offensive line has done a better job protecting QB Matthew Stafford, and that could open up the passing game for Los Angeles, which is ninth in yppa.

■ Pick: Rams 27, Colts 24 Buccaneers (2-1) at Saints (2-1) ■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Saints -3, 40

■ Analysis: Jameis Winston will likely replace injured Saints QB Derek Carr. I make Winston a negative 1½-point adjustment for New Orleans, which will get back RB Alvin Kamara following a three-game suspension. Winston brings a higher ceiling than Carr but also a much lower floor because of a high interception rate.

■ Pick: Saints 23, Buccaneers 21

Commanders (2-1) at Eagles (3-0)

■ Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

■ Line/total: Eagles -9½, 43½

■ Analysis: Washington had the right recipe last season when it controlled the clock with its running game at Philadelphia as a 10½-point underdog en route to a 32-21 win. Jalen Hurts is on a 17-1 run as a starter in the regular season, with the lone loss to the Commanders last year.

■ Pick: Eagles 29, Commanders 19 Bengals (1-2) at Titans (1-2)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Bengals -2½ ,41

■ Analysis: The Titans’ offensive line is 31st in sack percentage allowed. Cincinnati is 25th in pressure rate, but it could cause issues for Tennessee with its edge rushers. The Bengals have protected Joe Burrow well, but he’s fifth-worst in the league in intended air yards per pass, likely because of the lingering calf issue.

■ Pick: Bengals 20, Titans 19

Patriots (1-2) at Cowboys (2-1) ■ Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5

■ Line/total: Cowboys -6½, 43½

■ Analysis: Dallas should get help this week from a healthier offensive line. The Cowboys are moving the ball but couldn’t convert their drives into TDS in last week’s loss at Arizona. Dak Prescott is second-worst in the league in intended air yards per pass. The Patriots should be able to move the ball on the ground against a Cowboys rush defense that ranks 30th in the league.

■ Pick: Cowboys 31, Patriots 20 Cardinals (1-2) at 49ers (3-0) ■ Time: 1:25 p.m.

■ Line/total: 49ers -14, 43½

■ Analysis: The Cardinals have been a surprise and are playing with great energy. They rank second in the league in yards per rush and are in the middle of the pack throwing the ball. But they’ll face the best team on their schedule in the 49ers, who are riding an 11-1 cover streak as home favorites, including 3-0 ATS as double-digit home favorites.

■ Pick: 49ers 30, Cardinals 12

Chiefs (2-1) at Jets (1-2)

■ Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

■ Line/total: Chiefs -9, 41½

■ Analysis: In the Chiefs’ last 14 games as road favorites of seven points or more, they’re 14-0 straight-up with every win by at least three points. Kansas City, which scored at least 23 points in all 14 games, sounds like a perfect teaser leg, though it went only 6-8 ATS in those games.

■ Pick: Chiefs 27, Jets 20

Seahawks (2-1) at Giants (1-2) ■ Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, KTNV-13, ESPN ■ Line/total: Seahawks -1½ ,47

■ Analysis: Neither team is putting pressure on the QB, as the Seahawks rank 30th in that category and the Giants 29th. New York is 28th in the NFL in sacks allowed, while the Seahawks are 10th-best at protecting the passer.

■ Pick: Seahawks 23, Giants 21

The Associated Press Matt Ludtke Jameis Winston will likely replace injured Saints QB Derek Carr. Winston may have a higher ceiling than Carr, but he also has a higher interception rate.