NFL BREAKDOWN

Dionne D’amico, Sportsmemo.com, @1stladyofvegas

Falcons (6-7) at Panthers (1-12)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Falcons -3, 33½

■ Analysis: Atlanta, despite coming off a loss, should come in confident. The Falcons took down Carolina 24-10 on Sept. 10, and they need every win they can get. They’re tied with the Buccaneers and the Saints for first in the NFC South at 6-7. The Panthers are one of only two teams that have already been eliminated from postseason play. I don’t see 1-12 Carolina, which has covered only two contests this season, going all out here.

■ Pick: Falcons 24, Panthers 13

Bears (5-8) at Browns (8-5)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Browns -3, 38

■ Analysis: Although Chicago has won back-to-back games for the first time in almost two years, I still don’t have much faith in this team. The Bears struggle when facing aggressive defenses. That’s exactly what the Browns have. Cleveland allows the fewest passing yards per game (159.7) in the NFL. The Browns have a solid rushing attack on offense, and veteran quarterback Joe Flacco looks comfortable with two games under his belt. Cleveland has won and covered six of its seven home games this season.

■ Pick: Browns 27, Bears 21

Buccaneers (6-7) at Packers (6-7)

■ Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

■ Line/total: Packers -3½ ,42

■ Analysis: This is one of the toughest games on the board to handicap. What makes it even more difficult is the line has ping-ponged from 3 to 3½. The Buccaneers enter this matchup coming off consecutive wins for the first time since weeks 1 and 2. The Packers are coming off a loss to the Giants on Monday that snapped their threegame win and cover streak. Tampa Bay and Green Bay match up well with each other. I really do feel this game is going to be settled by a field goal. If you like the favorite, bet it down. If you like the underdog, bet it up.

■ Pick: Packers 24, Buccaneers 21

Texans (7-6) at Titans (5-8)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Titans -3½, 37

■ Analysis: The AFC South is a tight division, and this contest has serious implications. Both teams have been bitten by the injury bug. Houston’s bite is a little more significant as quarterback C.J. Stroud won’t play after suffering a concussion in last week’s loss to the Jets. With Tennessee coming off a big comeback victory over Miami on the road Monday, I see them carrying momentum into this game.

■ Pick: Titans 23, Texans 17

Giants (5-8) at Saints (6-7)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Saints -5½ ,38½

■ Analysis: The Giants’ playoff chances are slim. They need every win they can get, especially because two of their final three games are against the Eagles. New York has won and covered three straight. New Orleans also needs this game, but it has been point-spread poison. The Saints have covered only three games this season while going 1-5 ATS at home.

■ Pick: Saints 24, Giants 20

Jets (5-8) at Dolphins (9-4)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Dolphins -9, 36½

■ Analysis: Money is coming in on the Jets, but the public is wrong here. Facing the Dolphins after Miami suffered a heartbreaking, one-point loss Monday night will prove fatal for New York. Miami, after this week, faces Dallas at home, Baltimore on the road and Buffalo at home. The Dolphins have to win this game. I just don’t see the Jets, who have produced 13 points or less in five of their last six games, keeping up with Miami’s second-ranked scoring offense (31.6 points per game). We could easily see an outcome similar to the Dolphins’ 34-13 win and cover in the teams’ first meeting Nov. 24.

■ Pick: Dolphins 30, Jets 14

Chiefs (8-5) at Patriots (3-10)

■ Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

■ Line/total: Chiefs -8, 37½

■ Analysis: Kansas City losing back-toback games and sitting at 8-5 in middecember are things we’re not used to seeing. New England has been eliminated from the postseason at 3-10. The Patriots have crushed bettors this season. They’re 3-10 ATS, including 1-5 ATS at home. The Chiefs need wins. They have home dates against the Raiders and Bengals after this game before closing out the regular season on the road against the Chargers.

■ Pick: Chiefs 24, Patriots 10

49ers (10-3) at Cardinals (3-10)

■ Time: 1:05 p.m.

■ Line/total: 49ers -12, 48

■ Analysis: Don’t expect the 49ers to take their foot off the gas because they were the first team to clinch a playoff spot. There is no question San Francisco is the NFL’S most complete team on both sides of the ball. A win here against a division opponent would lock up the NFC West title and move them closer to the top seed in the playoffs. If you’re worried about laying double digits, don’t. San Francisco has won and covered the last three meetings with the Cardinals, all as a double-digit favorite.

■ Pick: 49ers 31, Cardinals 13

Commanders (4-9) at Rams (6-7)

■ Time: 1:05 p.m.

■ Line/total: Rams -6½ ,50½

■ Analysis: This is one of my strongest plays this weekend. Firing defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio didn’t produce the results the Commanders were hoping for. They’ve lost four in a row while going 1-3 ATS. They have a lackluster offense and the worst scoring defense in the NFL. The Rams are tied for second place in the NFC West with the Seahawks and need wins. Los Angeles is starting to hit its stride at the right time. The Rams have won three of their last four games and covered three straight.

■ Pick: Rams 28, Commanders 16

Cowboys (10-3) at Bills (7-6)

■ Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5

■ Line/total: Bills -2, 50

■ Analysis: The Cowboys have been consistent this season, while the Bills have been anything but. I am well aware that Dallas’ stats dip a bit on the road, but they are red hot. The Cowboys have won five straight while going 4-1 ATS. Buffalo regained some confidence in last week’s road win at Kansas City. This game is going to come down to mistakes and turnovers, in my opinion. Dallas has committed the fewest miscues in the league. Bills QB Josh Allen and his teammates are among the NFL’S worst culprits at turning the ball over.

■ Pick: Cowboys 28, Bills 26

Ravens (10-3) at Jaguars (8-5)

■ Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

■ Line/total: Ravens -3, 42½

■ Analysis: This matchup is difficult to predict. The Ravens have been more consistent. But the Jaguars seem to come back to surprise us every time we count them out. Jacksonville can be confident knowing it beat Baltimore at home last season. Picking a side is too tough. I do feel you’re going to see both offenses succeed and push the game over.

■ Pick: Ravens 27, Jaguars 24

Eagles (10-3) at Seahawks (6-7)

■ Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, KTNV-13, ESPN

■ Line/total: Eagles -3, 48

■ Analysis: Many sharp bettors feel the play is Seattle here, despite the Seahawks entering on a four-game slide. I don’t see that working out. Seattle is a formidable foe. It just isn’t in the same class as the Eagles’ last two opponents, the 49ers and Cowboys. There’s no way the Seahawks’ 25th-ranked pass defense can slow down Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts and his weapons. Look for the Eagles to get back on track in a big way.

■ Pick: Eagles 27, Seahawks 21