Las Vegas Review-Journal (Sunday)
Ban in Arizona ‘dynamic-changing’
Abortion issue may rival debate on immigration
PHOENIX — Arizona was already expected to be one of the most closely contested states in November’s U.S. presidential election. But a ruling this week instituting a near-total abortion ban supercharged the state’s role, transforming it into perhaps the nation’s most critical battleground.
This Sunbelt state with an independent streak has long been at the forefront of the nation’s immigration debate because of its 378-mile border with Mexico and its large Hispanic and immigrant populations. It now moves to the center of the national debate over reproductive rights after the U.S. Supreme Court ended a federally guaranteed right to abortion.
Abortion and immigration have been two of this year’s biggest political issues. No battleground state has been affected more directly by both than Arizona.
“Do not underestimate this,” Democratic pollster John Anzalone, who polls for President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign, said of the Arizona abortion ruling. “It’s dynamic-changing.”
Biden and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump are expected to fight hard to win Arizona after Biden carried the state four years ago by fewer than 11,000 votes.
And the U.S. Senate majority might be decided by the state’s high-profile contest between Republican Kari Lake and Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego in the race to replace retiring Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an independent who caucuses with Democrats.
The state Supreme Court’s ruling reviving an abortion ban passed in 1864 also added fuel to Democrats’ push to put a question on the November ballot asking voters to approve a constitutional amendment protecting the right to abortion until viability, when a fetus could survive outside the womb. Later abortions would be allowed to save the woman’s life or protect her physical or mental health.
Trump campaign senior adviser Chris Lacivita, who also serves as chief of staff to the Republican National Committee, described Arizona as “a key part of the strategy.”
He declined to discuss any specifics on strategy but disagreed that the abortion ruling fundamentally changed Arizona’s dynamics.
“Is abortion an issue that the campaign has to deal with in the battleground states — and more specifically in Arizona? Absolutely. We feel that we are doing that and we are exceeding what we need to do,” Lacivita said, even as he suggested other issues would be more salient for most Arizona voters this fall.
“The election is going to be determined really in large part based on the key issues that the vast majority of Arizonans have to deal with every single day, and that’s, ‘Can I afford to put food on the table and feed my family and get in the car to go to work?’” he said.
Democrats are quick to note that they have won nearly every major election in which abortion was on the ballot since the June 2022 reversal of Roe v. Wade.
The Biden campaign on Thursday launched a statewide abortion-related advertising campaign that it said would reach seven figures, but ad tracking firms had yet to confirm the new spending.
In the new ad, Biden links Arizona’s abortion restrictions directly to Trump.
“Your body and your decisions belong to you, not the government, not Donald Trump,” Biden said.