Las Vegas Review-Journal

Too early to crown Hillary Clinton

- Douglas Mackinnon Douglas Mackinnon is a former White House and Pentagon official and the author of the memoir “Rolling Pennies in the Dark.” He wrote this for the Los Angeles Times.

Many pundits on the left, and even a growing number on the right, are ready to declare Hillary Clinton the next president of the United States. Columnist Kathleen Parker recently spoke on a national cable program of Clinton “saving the world.” Democratic political operative Donna Brazile recently declared, “If Hillary Clinton gets in the race, there will be a coronation.

That’s all great — except, as the virtually unheard of and little experience­d Barack Obama proved in 2007 and 2008, campaign punditry simply doesn’t matter. It’s votes that count.

I suspect the person who has the least confidence in the prediction­s of her success is Clinton herself, followed in a close second by her husband, former President Bill Clinton.

As an independen­t conservati­ve, I don’t always agree with the Clintons’ politics. But I don’t think there is a better political mind in the country or the world than that of Bill Clinton. Like him or not, the man came from a highly dysfunctio­nal family to become president. He also managed to get re-elected despite many prediction­s to the contrary. It all took true political genius.

That said, no one understand­s better than the Clintons how hardball politics are practiced. They’ve both done their share of mudslingin­g, and they’ve also experience­d it. That means that they know what’s lurking in the wings if Hillary Clinton enters the presidenti­al fray, especially from other Democrats.

The November election is always a battle. But for sheer nastiness, nothing outdoes the primary season. Remember Willie Horton? He was a convicted felon who committed violent crimes while out on a weekend furlough from prison in Massachuse­tts. His rampage happened on the watch of Michael Dukakis, then Massachuse­tts governor. When Dukakis ran against George H.W. Bush in the presidenti­al race, Bush used a highly effective campaign ad about the incident that suggested Dukakis was soft on crime.

But Bush was not the first one to raise the furlough issue. It was Al Gore, during the Democratic primary season, who first hammered Dukakis for the prison release program.

Flash forward to the most recent primary season. Yes, Obama portrayed his opponent Mitt Romney as an outof-touch aristocrat during the run-up to the fall election. But Obama was late to the attack. Throughout the primary season, Romney was relentless­ly ridiculed as a heartless capitalist by Newt Gingrich and other challenger­s for the GOP nomination.

Another potential stumbling block for Hillary Clinton is the mainstream media, which despite their denials still lean significan­tly to the left of center politicall­y. As was clear in 2008, during the Democratic primary for president, political reporters tend to overwhelmi­ngly side with the more liberal of the candidates, and they often slant their coverage to reflect such bias.

That doesn’t bode well for Hillary Clinton, who is likely to be challenged by more liberal candidates, possibly including Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachuse­tts.

Between Clinton and Warren, the far left of the Democratic Party and many members of the media would probably favor Warren. Already, there is a growing, and even angry, chorus of liberals declaring that Warren should get the nomination over Clinton at any cost. They can’t forgive Clinton for her vote in favor of the invasion of Iraq and her embrace of mainstream foreign policy.

Clinton knows better than most, in part because of her 2008 experience, that liberal Democratic primary voters as well as many in the media could very well become infatuated with a candidate to her political left. She also knows thedangers­ofmudsling­ingfromwit­hin her party, and Gov. Martin O’Malley of Maryland, known for playing political hardball, could well take on the enforcer role during the Democratic primary season. All in all, Clinton could be facing a very rough ride indeed.

Should she enter the fray with the hope of winning the crown? Sure. Why not?

But she might want to ask Howard Dean, John Kerry, John McCain and Mitt Romney how their presidenti­al “coronation­s” worked out for them.

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