Al-Qaida uses chaos to gain land
Terror group’s affiliates hamper efforts to resolve conflicts in Yemen, Syria
BEIRUT — Al-Qaida affiliates are significantly expanding their footholds in Syria and Yemen, using the chaos of civil wars to acquire territory and increase their influence, analysts, residents and intelligence officials say.
The gains have helped the terror group’s affiliates become major players in the countries and have complicated efforts to resolve the conflicts. Al-Qaida offshoots could also be gaining sanctuaries to eventually plan attacks against the United States and Europe, analysts say.
In Syria, al-Qaida’s wing, Jabhat al-Nusra, plays a leading role in a new rebel coalition that has captured key areas in the northwestern part of the country. In Yemen, al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP, has seized parts of the country’s largest province, territory that includes military bases, an airfield and ports.
“Al-Qaida is becoming more deeply entrenched in Syria, and it is gaining significant momentum in Yemen, and the global focus on ISIS has distracted from the expansion of this other radical, transnational group,” said Fawaz Gerges, professor of Middle Eastern politics at the London School of Economics, using an acronym for the Islamic State.
Although there is little evidence that the two al-Qaida affiliates are collaborating, both are adopting similar strategies of expanding where they can in the shadows of more powerful insurgent groups, analysts say. Meanwhile, the two al-Qaida branches are trying to position themselves as more palatable brands of radical Islam among citizens in Yemen and Syria who feel threatened by the Houthi rebels and the Islamic State.
Though U.S. aircraft are targeting both affiliates, only AQAP is known to have carried out attacks against the West. Jabhat al-Nusra has concentrated most if not all of its energy on the Syrian civil war.
The militants in Syria and Yemen are avoiding the sort of brutality that has distinguished the Islamic State, which split from al-Qaida last year. The shift appears to be an attempt to win local support and avoid the kind of international military action that the Islamic State is facing, analysts say.
Al-Qaida’s leaders “are attempting to operate under the radar as part of an adaptive strategy that they see as a way to compete with and outlast ISIS,” Gerges said.
A U.S.-led coalition targeted the Islamic State after it captured a vast swath of territory in Iraq and Syria, declared a caliphate and provoked global outrage with beheadings and other vicious acts. The proclamation of a caliphate was a direct challenge to al-Qaida, which has aspired to lead Muslims around the world.
In Yemen, AQAP has exploited a war between pro-government forces and Shiite rebels to seize chunks of the southern Hadramaut province, including its capital, Mukalla. AQAP fighters also are battling the rebels, known as Houthis, further east in Bayda province, although they haven’t seized much territory there.
AQAP is perhaps al-Qaida’s most powerful affiliate, tied to several bomb plots aimed at the United States, including an unsuccessful effort to blow up a Detroit-bound plane in 2009.
In recent years, the Yemeni military had launched offensives against AQAP, often with the United States’ help. But the Yemeni army has split, with some units siding with the Houthis. The remaining pro-government forces are focused on fighting the Houthis, not AQAP.
The complex war in Yemen now also involves the Saudis, who have been bombing Yemen to try to drive back the Shiite Houthis, whom they see as proxies of their rival, Shiite Iran. But the Saudis aren’t targeting AQAP, which comprises Sunnis.
“Why would Saudi attack them if they’re effectively on the same side in this war?” said a Yemeni intelligence official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing security concerns.