Heart says American Pharoah; head, wallet say Mubtaahij
While my heart will be rooting for American Pharoah to win the Belmont Stakes on Saturday, my wallet will be giving other horses a chance to upset him.
And there lies the beauty of horse racing. The sport desperately wants to see the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. But seven other horses will be trying their best to beat him.
This will be the 14th time in 37 years that we’ve been at the altar. The closest call was an inch loss by Real Quiet in 1998. The most heartbreaking loss was probably Smarty Jones in 2004.
As a bettor, you do not need me to tell you that American Pharoah at 3-5 odds is the horse to beat. The toughest foe for him is his own physical condition. With the Belmont being his third taxing Grade 1 race in five weeks, not even trainer Bob Baffert knows for sure the toll it’s taken.
American Pharoah may be eating well, working well, keeping his weight on. But the unknown will be when he reaches the final quarter mile of the Belmont. Jockey Victor Espinoza will ask for everything American Pharoah has left, and we will find out if there is anything left.
If he does come up empty, there are some talented foes waiting in the wings.
Mubtaahij (10-1) has had seven workouts since the Kentucky Derby. He had four of them in an 11-day period. If that’s not a sign of good health, then I don’t know what is.
His trainer, Michael de Kock, is one of the world’s best. The rail draw should be perfect for him, and here’s why. When Mubtaahij won the UAE Derby, he sat a relaxed pocket trip on the rail for the first mile. Then he angled out four wide and exploded for an easy win.
Mubtaahij has the best pedigree in the Belmont for the marathon distance. And now he has a jockey, Irad Ortiz Jr., who is a leading rider in New York and has course knowledge. Thus, Mubtaahij is my top choice to upset American Pharoah.
Materiality (6-1) drew the outer No. 8 post, and that should be perfect for him, too. He had the most trouble of any horse in the Kentucky Derby. Being outside on Saturday, jockey John Velazquez should be able to pick his spot well before the first turn.
If Materiality does not get a good trip, it won’t be because of the post.
Frosted (5-1) ran the best race of his life in winning the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. He then ran a gallant, rallying fourth in the Kentucky Derby while having a wide trip.
He has been training great and figures to be a major stretch factor.
The three horses I just mentioned all ran in the Kentucky Derby, but now have had five weeks rest until the Belmont. They are best defined as fresh, fit and dangerous.
It was this scenario last year that Steve Coburn, co-owner of California Chrome, called the connections of other Belmont horses “cowards” for not running in all three legs of the Triple Crown.
While I know what Coburn really meant, it’s something I don’t see changing any time soon.
ENG’S PICKS — Mubtaahij, Materiality, American Pharoah, Frosted.
■ SAM’S TOWN TOURNAMENT — Sam’s Town will host a two-day handicapping tournament today and Saturday. The entry fee is $500. The top 10 finishers will get paid, and free seats to the Horseplayer World Series and Gold Coast Summer Classic will be awarded. Richard Eng’s horse racing column is published Friday in the Las Vegas Review-Journal. He can be reached at rich_eng@hotmail.com. Follow him on Twitter: @ richeng4propick.