BELMONT FIELD ODDS AND ANALYSIS
A closer look at the horses running in the 147th Belmont Stakes in Elmont, N.Y.:
Horse racing handicapper Andrew Beyer analyzes the field of today’s Belmont Stakes, by post position.
Beyer, who has been The Washington Post’s horse racing columnist since 1978, has written four books on racing, including “Picking Winners,” which introduced and explained Beyer Speed Figures (BSF), a rating system now incorporated in the Daily Racing Form past performances.
BSF, a rating assigned to every race by every horse in the United States, takes into account the time of a horse’s performance and the inherent speed of the racing surface. Here, the BSF represents the best figure each horse has earned as a 3-year-old in a race run at a mile or more.
Post time: 3:50 p.m. today (NBC, 3) 1. Mubtaahij Trainer: Mike de Kock Jockey: Irad Ortiz World-renowned trainer de Kock deserves respect whenever he starts a horse. But the winner of the rich United Emirates Derby had no excuse when he finished eighth in the Kentucky Derby. Odds: 10-1; BSF: 91 2. Tale of Verve Trainer: Dallas Stewart Jockey: Gary Stevens When a sudden storm inundated Pimlico before the Preakness, most of the runners couldn’t handle the track. This one did — and finished a distant second to American Pharoah. He would benefit from another cloudburst in New York. Odds: 15-1; BSF: 91 3. Madefromlucky Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Javier Castellano Faced American Pharoah in Arkansas twice and was soundly beaten both times. He’s won his other three starts this season, most recently the Peter Pan Handicap over the Belmont track. He appears to be the weaker of Pletcher’s two entrants. Odds: 12-1; BSF: 94 4. Frammento Trainer: Nick Zito Jockey: Mike Smith Zito saddled 36-1 Birdstone to spoil Smarty Jones’ Triple Crown bid, but this late-running colt doesn’t have enough talent. He has won only a maiden race. Odds: 30-1; BSF: 87 5. American Pharoah Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Victor Espinoza He’s admirably fast and consistent, but he’s had good luck in his wins, and now he has 37 years of precedents working against him as he tries to sweep the Triple Crown. Odds: 3-5; BSF: 105 6. Frosted Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin Jockey: Joel Rosario As the leaders ran 1-2-3 around the track in the Kentucky Derby, this colt managed to rally and finish fourth. The Wood Memorial winner is the top stretch-running threat in the field. Odds: 5-1; BSF: 103 7. Keen Ice Trainer: Dale Romans Jockey: Kent Desormeaux Had some traffic trouble then accelerated late to finish seventh in the Derby. Trainer’s horses often run better than expected in the Triple Crown series. Odds: 20-1; BSF: 92 8. Materiality Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: John Velasquez Won the Florida Derby with a brilliant performance, then had a difficult trip in Kentucky. He’s been freshened for five weeks since losing at Churchill Downs — a Pletcher move that has won the Belmont before.
6-1; 110
ANDREW BEYER/ THE WASHINGTON POST